Three of the best 3-year-old fillies in the United States will face off in Saturday’s $1 million Cotillion Stakes, a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles at Parx Racing.
#1 Scottish Lassie, #2 La Cara, and #7 Good Cheer are all proven Grade 1 winners. But all have questions to answer.
Scottish Lassie is occasionally brilliant. Last year, she won the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes by nine lengths. Two months ago, she smashed the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational Stakes by 15 1/2 lengths. But in between she suffered a series of decisive defeats, including when third in the Grade 1 DK Horse Acorn Stakes to La Cara. Consistency has not been a strong suit for Scottish Lassie.
The same goes for La Cara. The front-running filly enjoyed a productive spring, leading from start to finish to win the Acorn by three lengths and the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths. But in between, she finished ninth to Good Cheer in the Longines Kentucky Oaks and she came home behind Good Cheer again when running a distant fourth in last month’s Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales.
Speaking of Good Cheer, she won the first seven starts of her career, highlighted by a rallying 2 ¼-length triumph in the Kentucky Oaks. But she then finished a nonthreatening fifth in the Acorn. She bounced back to run second in the Alabama, but the aura of invincibility she exuded earlier this year has faded.
Overall, Good Cheer might be the most trustworthy of the Cotillion entrants. Since Scottish Lassie and La Cara are both speed horses, there’s a chance they’ll duel for the lead and set up Good Cheer’s late rally.
But what if #4 Indy Bay steals the show?
Indy Bay has won four of her last five starts, including the Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks and Jersey Girl Stakes. Along the way, she’s earned sharp speed figures that stack up well against the Cotillion field.
Indy Bay has yet to run a race longer than seven-eighths of a mile, but she’s bred to handle the distance, and Brisnet statistics indicate trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. wins at a strong 24% rate with horses running a route distance for the first time.
Indy Bay’s combination of early speed and tractability should lead to a perfect trip stalking Scottish Lassie and La Cara while getting the jump on Good Cheer. We suggest boldly betting Indy Bay on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using the favorites underneath.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$4 exacta: 4 with 1,2,7 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 13, $4 exacta 4 with 1,2,7
Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget
$8 exacta: 4 with 1,2,7 (total cost: $24)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 13, $8 exacta 4 with 1,2,7
$2 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,7 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 13, $2 trifecta 4 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
