Triple Crown winner American Pharoah… Kentucky Derby hero Smarty Jones… Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex… Preakness winners Curlin, Lookin At Lucky, and Oxbow… Belmont winner Creator… champions Lawyer Ron, Will Take Charge, Whitmore, Game Winner, and Improbable… what do all these standout racehorses have in common? They all competed in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.

A 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier worth 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers, the Rebel has consistently been a proving ground for some of the best young Triple Crown contenders in training. The purse has risen steadily from $100,000 as recently as 2002 to a whopping $1.25 million for this year’s edition, which is coming up on Saturday, Feb. 24.

Analyzing the abundantly productive history of the Rebel can provide handicapping clues for horseplayers hoping to uncover the 2024 winner. If you’re wondering which types of horses have historically performed best in the Rebel, we’ve got you covered with six tips and trends to keep in mind:

Speed horses are the most successful

Deep closers haven’t enjoyed much luck in recent editions of the Rebel. Nine of the last 10 winners were racing less than two lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, including five who were leading. Furthermore, eight of the last 10 Rebel winners were racing in the top three after half a mile, and nine of the 10 were positioned in the front half of the pack.

The takeaway? Like many U.S. dirt races, the Rebel favors horses with tactical speed.

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Short prices on top, longshots underneath

Since 2015, favorites and double-digit longshots have won two editions of the Rebel apiece, with the longshots coming recently: Un Ojo at 75.40-1 in 2022 and Confidence Game at 18.50-1 last year. That leaves six non-favored winners who started at single-digit odds. All told, seven of the last 10 Rebel winners started at less than 5-1, so generally speaking the race produces an unsurprising outcome.

Longshots have fared better in the battle for minor awards. Ethereal Road (15.80-1 in 2022), Hozier (18.80-1 in 2021), Excession (82.60-1 in 2020), and Sonneteer (112.30-1 in 2017) have all finished second in recent editions of the Rebel.

Favor horses who raced in January or February

Horses who prepped for the Rebel with a race in either January or February have won nine of the last 10 editions. In contrast, horses making their seasonal debuts in the Rebel have gone 1-for-13 across the last 10 editions, which includes a handful of betting favorites who fell to defeat. The one win came courtesy of American Pharoah (2015), a future Triple Crown winner talented enough to overcome the lack of a recent race.

Out-of-state shippers have an advantage

Some Kentucky Derby prep races favor horses with experience racing over the local track. That’s not the case with the Rebel. Across the last 10 editions, only one winner (Long Range Toddy) exited a race at Oaklawn. Among the others, five prepped in California, two came from Florida, one shipped down from New York, and one traveled from Fair Grounds.

Bet on recent winners

Horses exiting a winning performance have taken top honors in seven of the last 10 editions of the Rebel, so strong recent form is an important handicapping consideration. This is backed up by the fact the three Rebel winners who defied the last-out victory trend (Un Ojo, Long Range Toddy, and Confidence Game) exited top-three finishes in graded stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Graded stakes experience isn’t critical

Provided a horse is exiting a victory, graded stakes experience isn’t a prerequisite for success in the Rebel. Four of the last 10 Rebel winners (Omaha Beach, Magnum Moon, Malagacy, and Cupid) were making their graded stakes debuts off victories in either maiden or allowance races.

Conclusions

Timberlake

The most accomplished horse in the 2024 Rebel field is #7 Timberlake, winner of the Champagne Stakes and runner-up in the Hopeful Stakes last season. He has tactical speed, figures to start at short odds, and last ran at Santa Anita in California, so those are all positives in his favor. In fact, Timberlake is the only Rebel entrant who isn’t exiting a race at Oaklawn.

But Timberlake faces a couple of historical obstacles. He hasn’t run since November, so the Rebel will mark his 3-year-old debut. And his last effort was a fourth-place finish in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, so he’s neither entering off a victory nor exiting a top-three finish in a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier.

Therefore, history points to #11 Just Steel and #2 Northern Flame as upset candidates. Just Steel has tactical speed, is very likely to start at single-digit odds, and enters off a runner-up finish in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn. That top-three finish in a Derby qualifier is important since Just Steel is coming off a defeat.

Northern Flame likewise boasts a strong profile. He’s one of only three Rebel entrants exiting a victory, having led from start to finish in a $100,000 allowance-optional claimer Jan. 28 at Oaklawn. His tactical speed is an asset, and he’ll probably be bet down to single-digit odds, so all told there are four historical trends in Northern Flame’s favor.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!