Filled with big purses and loaded with important races, the 2024 Belmont at the Big A fall meet is set to open at Aqueduct for a 31-raceday season that will run from Friday, Sept. 13, four days a week through Sunday, Nov. 3. Aqueduct hosted the first Belmont Park meet in fall 2022 as NYRA’s Long Island mainstay venue began a massive reconstruction project, and held meets again during fall 2023 and summer 2024. The Belmont Park project is not expected to be finished until 2026, so Aqueduct will hold its third fall Belmont at the Big A meet before starting its own traditional meet in November.

Racing fans can expect daily high-class racing at Belmont at the Big A with plenty to offer horseplayers including a stakes program that will host a total of 50 stakes with purses of $10.35 million. The season’s stakes will include six races designated as Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” prep races for the World Championships scheduled for Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

The fall’s best horses, jockeys, and trainers will converge on Belmont at the Big A for top-notch turf racing, the best 2-year-old racing, and some of the best wagering opportunities of the season. For a sneak peek at who you can expect this season at Belmont at the Big A, you can look for clues from last year’s Belmont at the Big A fall meet, as well as the results from the recently concluded Saratoga summer racing season.

Fall Meet Trainer Trends

Chad Brown (Walter Wlodarczyk/NYRA)

Chad Brown is coming off an historically good 2024 Saratoga summer meet, which bodes well for his prospects this fall at Belmont at the Big A. Brown won his seventh career training title at Saratoga with 45 wins including 15 stakes wins – a new meet record in the history of Saratoga.

It was a long way back to second in the Saratoga trainers’ standings as Todd Pletcher and Mike Maker enjoyed solid Saratoga seasons, finishing tied with 22 wins apiece. Linda Rice with 18 wins and Mark Casse and Bill Mott with 15 wins each rounded out the top six. You can expect more of the same from this set of trainers atop the fall standings at Belmont at the Big A, with Rice expected to make much more of a dent downstate than she did at the Spa.

In addition to the trainers mentioned above, other potential top 10 trainers this fall at Belmont at the Big A will include Rudy Rodriguez (11 wins at 2023 fall meet), Christophe Clement (seven wins in fall 2023), Richard Dutrow (seven wins), Brad Cox (six wins), George Weaver (six wins), David Jacobson (six wins), Horacio DePaz (five wins), Raymond Handal (five wins), and Jeremiah Englehart (five wins).

Top Jockeys

Dylan Davis (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Belmont at the Big A meet jockey colony will be led by many the top jockeys from the Saratoga summer meet. Irad Ortiz Jr. won the Saratoga jockey title for the most wins with 52 victories, but it was Flavien Prat who broke records at the 2024 Saratoga meet. Prat’s total of 45 winners included a record-setting 18 stakes wins including a record 14 graded stakes wins. Prat led all jockeys in purses won at the Spa with just over $6.6 million. Ortiz and Prat should lead the way in similar fashion this fall at Belmont at the Big A.

Aside from Irad Ortiz and Prat, other riders to watch atop the Belmont at the Big A standings are led by Dylan Davis, who had 35 wins at Saratoga, and Manny Franco, who had 29 wins at Saratoga and won both the 2024 Belmont at the Big A spring/summer jockey title with 37 wins and last year’s fall meet title with 34 wins.

Other jockeys vying for spots in the top five in the standings will include Junior Alvarado (22 wins at Saratoga), Kendrick Carmouche (fourth place with 22 wins at the 2023 Belmont at the Big A fall meet) and Jose Lezcano (seventh place with 15 wins at 2023 Belmont at the Big A fall meet). Luis Saez (24 wins at Saratoga) and Joel Rosario (16 wins at Saratoga) will also win races at the meet when they are not focusing on riding at the upcoming seasons at Churchill Downs and Keeneland. John Velazquez takes fewer mounts but can be expected to win at a high percentage this season.

Main Track Trends

Turning for home on the Big A’s dirt track. (Dom Napolitano/NYRA)

What handicappers need to know is that the Aqueduct main track is that it mostly plays fair to all running styles. If anything, off-the-pace runners might even have a slight edge because Aqueduct usually has fewer wire-to-wire winners than at the Saratoga meet that directly precedes it.

In 58 dirt routes run at the 2023 Belmont at the Big A fall meet including races at one mile, speed was by far the best running style with horses racing on or close to the pace (leading or within a length of the early lead) winning 31 of the 58 races for 53%. Speed horses did well from inside, middle, and outside posts, but horses from inside posts 1-3 had the advantage in two-turn route races run at 1 1/8 miles.

In dirt sprints, early speed was also an advantage at Belmont at the Big A in fall 2023 and a horse’s chances to win dropped dramatically if it had to come from too far off the pace. Horses racing on or close to the pace won 55 of the 99 dirt sprints for 55%. Conversely, only seven of the 99 dirt sprints run in fall 2023 were won by horses coming from more than four lengths behind.

Post positions in dirt sprints, meanwhile, were amazingly and universally fair to inside, middle, and outside posts at the fall 2023 meet.

Turf Tips

A crowded field in a turf event. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Aqueduct features two turf courses, the main turf course and the inner turf in the space where the old inner dirt track used to be. Turf sprints are run at six furlongs on the outer course, which also runs races at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, and the occasional 1 3/16 miles. Inner turf races are run at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, 1 3/8 miles, and 1 ½ miles.

In Belmont at the Big A and Aqueduct regular meet turf routes, the inside two post positions are the best places to be with win percentages of 16% and 14% respectively in a 321-race sample dating back to 2017. Horses also have fair chances from middle and outside posts, and no turf route post position all the way out to 12 has been an overwhelming disadvantage. This means that while posts 1-2 are the best, you can look for live overlays from the outside posts in Belmont at the Big A turf routes because handicappers often misperceive more of an outside disadvantage than there really is.

At the Belmont at the Big A fall meet in 2023, the turf route preferential running style went to stalkers racing between one and four lengths off the pace. The winners of the 50 turf routes included 22 stalkers, accounting for wins in 44% of the turf routes. There were 12 frontrunning winners (won 24% of the races) racing on or close to the lead, and 16 closers that came from four-plus lengths off the pace (won 32% of the turf routes).

If you broke down the races into inner and outer turf routes in the fall of 2023, the worst running style of all were front runners on the outer turf course. They won just two of the 14 routes run on the outer turf course.

Belmont at the Big A does not host nearly as many turf sprints as the Saratoga meet that precedes it. Unlike Saratoga, the Belmont at the Big A turf sprints do not tend to favor middle and outside posts. Inside posts do OK in turf sprints on this course and may even enjoy a slight advantage.

What definitely is an advantage in Belmont at the Big A’s turf sprints is early speed. Last fall horses on or close to the pace won 13 of the 23 turf sprints for 57% of the wins, followed by stalkers, who won eight of the 23 turf sprints for 35%. Closers trying to come from four or more lengths behind won only two of the 23 turf sprints at last fall’s meet (8.7%)

The Belmont at the Big A fall meet is here. Have a great season!