One of the most important races held in the United States each year is the $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. The 1 1/4-mile “Mid-Summer Derby” regularly draws some of the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds from around the United States, and the 2024 edition — coming up this Saturday — is no exception.
Handicapping the Travers isn’t always easy, because the depth of a typical field means there are many viable win contenders. Fortunately, an analysis of the recent history of the Travers since 2010 reveals several valuable trends that can be used to separate the contenders and identify the most likely winner.
The following seven guidelines establish one horse as the runner to beat in the 2024 Travers.
Avoid Betting Deep Closers
The Travers doesn’t strongly favor any particular running style. Since 2010, we’ve seen a couple of front-running winners, along with eight winners who raced second, third, or fourth after half a mile and five winners who rallied from outside the top four.
That’s a lot of variety, but it’s worth noting deep-closing Travers winners are uncommon. Only one winner since 2010 has rallied from more than five lengths off the lead after half a mile, and during the same timeframe not a single Travers winner raced in last place or next-to-last place after half a mile.
|
Year
|
Winner
|
Position after first 1/2-mile
|
½-mile &
¾-mile times
|
|
2023
|
Arcangelo
|
4th by 2.5 lengths (7 starters)
|
:48.10, 1:11.73 (muddy)
|
|
2022
|
Epicenter
|
4th by 2 lengths (8 starters)
|
:47.63, 1:11.43 (fast)
|
|
2021
|
Essential Quality
|
2nd by 3.5 lengths (7 starters)
|
:48.96, 1:14.49 (fast)
|
|
2020
|
Tiz the Law
|
3rd by 0.5 lengths (7 starters)
|
:48.36, 1:11.95 (fast)
|
|
2019
|
Code of Honor
|
9th by 4.75 lengths (12 starters)
|
:47.26, 1:11.21 (fast)
|
|
2018
|
Catholic Boy
|
2nd by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)
|
:47.81, 1:11.97 (fast)
|
|
2017
|
West Coast
|
1st by 1 length (12 starters)
|
:48.12, 1:12.23 (fast)
|
|
2016
|
Arrogate
|
1st by 1 length (13 starters)
|
:46.84, 1:10.85 (fast)
|
|
2015
|
Keen Ice
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5th by 5 lengths (10 starters)
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:48.30, 1:11.48 (fast)
|
|
2014
|
V. E. Day
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7th by 14.5 lengths (10 starters)
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:47.31, 1:11.27 (fast)
|
|
2013
|
Will Take Charge
|
5th by 4.25 lengths (9 starters)
|
:48.88, 1:13.43 (fast)
|
|
2012
|
Golden Ticket (dead heat)
|
4th by 3 lengths (11 starters)
|
:48.06, 1:12.62 (fast)
|
|
2012
|
Alpha (dead heat)
|
3rd by 2 lengths (11 starters)
|
:48.06, 1:12.62 (fast)
|
|
2011
|
Stay Thirsty
|
2nd by 1 length (10 starters)
|
:47.63, 1:11.91 (fast)
|
|
2010
|
Afleet Express
|
6th by 5 lengths (11 starters)
|
:47.25, 1:11.39 (fast)
|
Give an edge to Triple Crown veterans
While it’s not unheard of for up-and-comers to win the Travers, nine of the last 15 winners competed in one or more legs of the Triple Crown. Horses talented enough to start in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, and/or the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes during the spring are often the runners to beat come Travers time.
Play Against Haskell Alumni
One of the most important races for 3-year-olds held each summer is the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, but the Haskell rarely produces Travers winners. The last Travers champ to exit the Haskell was Keen Ice (2015), and the last horse to win both races was Point Given (2001).
New York Runners Have an Advantage
The Travers takes place in New York, and horses exiting races in New York commonly nab first prize. To be specific, 11 of the last 15 Travers winners (73%) prepped with a race in New York, as did 25 of the last 42 trifecta finishers (59.5%). It’s not uncommon for New York horses to run 1-2-3 in the Travers.
One of New York’s most important Travers prep races is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga. Six of the last 15 Travers winners exited the Jim Dandy, including four horses (Stay Thirsty, Alpha, Essential Quality, and Epicenter) who won both races.
Javier Castellano is the Dominant Jockey
Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano has won more editions of the Travers than any other rider. His seven wins have come aboard Bernardini (2006), Afleet Express (2010), Stay Thirsty (2011), V. E. Day (2014), Keen Ice (2015), Catholic Boy (2018), and Arcangelo (2023). Four of Castellano’s wins came aboard longshots starting at odds between 7-1 and 19.50-1.
Last-out Winners Are Formidable
Horses entering off victories have the best chance to shine in the Travers. The last eight Travers winners (and 11 of the last 15) won their previous start.
Furthermore, the four horses who defied this trend finished second or third in their prep race, with three of them exiting graded stakes. If you’re going to try to beat the last-out winners angle, don’t opt for a horse who finished out of the top three in their final start before the Travers.
Favor Progeny of Grade 1-winning Route Racers
Stallions who won at the Grade 1 level going 1 1/8 miles or farther have sired 12 of the last 15 Travers winners. The progeny of elite route racers outperform the progeny of sprinters and milers over the testing 1 1/4-mile distance of the Travers.
Conclusions
Eight horses were entered in the 2024 Travers. The field is packed with talent, but a strict interpretation of the historical trends we’ve outlined eliminates most of the contenders from win consideration.
#7 Dornoch must be opposed since he exits a victory in the Haskell. #2 Sierra Leone and #6 Honor Marie are deep closers likely to race last and next-to-last early on, disqualifying them from win consideration. #1 Thorpedo Anna and #3 Unmatched Wisdom are talented, but their sires failed to win at the Grade 1 level at 1 1/8 miles or farther. And if you want to back a last-out winner, horses like #4 Corporate Power and #5 Batten Down (as well as Sierra Leone and Honor Marie) aren’t for you.
This leaves #8 Fierceness as the most likely Travers winner from a historical perspective. He has tactical speed, he’s a veteran of the Triple Crown, he skipped the Haskell, he’s exiting a victory in the Jim Dandy in New York, and he’s a son of a stallion (City of Light) who won at the Grade 1 level at 1 1/8 miles.
Fierceness doesn’t have Javier Castellano in the saddle (Castellano is riding Corporate Power), but that’s a minor quibble; he’ll instead be guided by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, a two-time Travers winner. If you like using history as your guide, then Fierceness should be your pick in the 2024 Travers.
Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
