A competitive nine-horse field has turned out to sprint seven furlongs in Monday’s $300,000 Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, the feature race on closing day of the Saratoga summer meet. Recent Hopeful winners include champions Jackie’s Warrior (2020) and Forte (2022) plus the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Gunite (2021).

There’s a good chance we’ll see a future stakes star or two emerge from the 2024 Hopeful but predicting which of the nine lightly raced 2-year-olds will visit the winner’s circle isn’t easy.

It’s tempting to side with #2 Ferocious (8-5), the morning line favorite that dominated his Aug. 3 debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga. Despite getting off to a slow start, the son of Flatter tracked the early pace before taking over to win by 7 3/4 lengths in the fast time of 1:09.65. Trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano, the same team behind 2023 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve winner Mage, Ferocious was purchased for $1.3 million back in March and appears to have serious talent. Does that make him unbeatable in the Hopeful? Not necessarily.

Ferocious. (Gary Johnson/Eclipse Sportswire)

The Hopeful is a tricky race to analyze, and a betting favorite hasn’t prevailed since Competitive Edge in 2014. Drawing post two could be tricky for Ferocious, since he has several speedy rivals to his outside and a slow start could leave him boxed in behind horses. It’s also worth noting his runaway debut came over a muddy track, and there’s no guarantee Ferocious will replicate the same speedy performance over fast footing.

So, which runners are capable of springing a surprise? You can make a case of some kind for every horse in the field. Let’s think outside the box a bit and throw our support behind the double-digit longshots #5 Smoken Wicked (15-1) and #6 Studlydoright (12-1), who are actually the two most accomplished horses in the field. They’re the only entrants who have run against proven winning horses, and both have placed against graded stakes competition.

Smoken Wicked debuted in a maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds at Evangeline Downs, where he crushed the competition by 7 1/2 lengths. He subsequently tackled the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs, where overcame clipping heels to rally from far back and finish second. The winner, Politicallycorrect, returned to finish second in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes, while third-place finisher Ivan the Great won a Del Mar maiden special weight in his next start.

Having proven his worth against stakes competition, Smoken Wicked traveled to Saratoga for the Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes. This time he stayed within two lengths of a hot pace before fighting on to finish third against the undefeated and highly promising Showcase. With his strong past performances and versatility in terms of running style, Smoken Wicked can’t be dismissed as a win threat in the Hopeful.

Studlydoright likewise brings a promising profile to the table. A stretch-running son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, Studlydoright won his first two starts in comfortable fashion. First, he took a maiden special weigh at Laurel Park by 1 1/2 lengths. Then he shipped to Saratoga and upset the Tremont Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths.

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Studlydoright made his graded stakes debut in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga, where he gained four lengths through the final furlong to finish second by one length against Mo Plex, a talented New York-bred who recently brought his record to 3-for-3 with a victory in the Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga.

Since Smoken Wicked and Studlydoright are both longshots, we can bet them both and catch a fine payoff as long as one crosses the finish line first. If you want to keep your investment small, place a couple of $5 win bets and aim for a payoff in the $65-$80 range. In you want to shoot for a bigger payoff, mix and match our two longshots in exacta tickets with Ferocious and promising maiden winners #7 Mentee (5-1), #8 Chancer McPatrick (5-2), and #4 Tough Catch (8-1).

Mentee and Chancer McPatrick bring opposite running styles to the mix. Mentee wired his debut sprinting five furlongs at Aqueduct in track-record time, while Chance McPatrick rallied from dead last to win a Saratoga maiden special weight by one length. As for Tough Catch, he set a strong pace when wiring a Saratoga maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length and looks like one of the main speed horses in the Hopeful field.

            Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

            $5 to win on #5 Smoken Wicked

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $5 to win on 5

            $5 to win on #6 Studlydoright

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $5 to win on 6

            Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

            $6 exacta: 5,6 with 2 ($12)

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $6 exacta 5,6 with 2

            $3 exacta: 5,6 with 7,8 ($12)

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $3 exacta 5,6 with 7,8

            $2 exacta: 5,6 with 4 ($4)

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $2 exacta 5,6 with 4

            $1 exacta: box 5,6 ($2)

            What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $1 exacta box 5,6

            Good luck, and enjoy the race!