The Grade 2, $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Saturday at Fair Grounds brings together a field of 12 looking for the “Road to the Derby” qualifying points needed to make the starting gate the first Saturday in May.
Leading the field on the points list is Track Phantom, winner of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes the following month. With the winner of that race, Sierra Leone, pointing to the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland two weeks from now, Track Phantom probably will be the betting favorite. Common Defense shipped to Fair Grounds from Oaklawn Park in Arkansas following a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and appears to be a rising star. Similarly, Catching Freedom was 1 ¼ lengths behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star and probably can improve. Another recent runner-up in a big race for 3-year-olds is Agate Road, who rallied from 11th of 12 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last month. Honor Marie and Real Men Violin finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November. In their only starts since then, Honor Marie and Real Men Violin were well beaten when fifth and eighth, respectively, in the Risen Star. Triple Espresso tries dirt for the first time after five career starts on the grass, most recently finishing fourth in the Colonel Liam Stakes. Hall of Fame earned his first win in his second career start in January by a whopping 10 ¼ lengths before disappointing at low odds in the Risen Star, in which he checked in seventh. Antiquarian and Tuscan Gold both step up significantly in class off maiden wins in their second career starts. Next Level finished eighth at this level in the Risen Star and prior to that seventh two months earlier in the Gun Runner Stakes, so he appears overmatched, as does Risen Star sixth-place finisher Awesome Ruta.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Common Defense not only ran the best race of his career last month when second in the Rebel Stakes, he ran the fastest race of any 3-year-old in the field by virtue of earning a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Not only that, but Common Defense improved his speed figure for the third straight race, having earned an 82 speed figure when winning at a mile on Jan. 13 then an 83 when fifth in the Southwest Stakes three weeks later. In the Rebel, Common Defense relaxed in seventh after a quarter-mile had been completed then moved up nicely to fourth before taking second with an eighth of a mile to run. Although not making up any ground on winner Timberlake, who won the Champagne Stakes last fall before a fourth-place effort in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, Common Defense was clearly second by three lengths from third-place finisher Northern Flame at the end. Since pointing to this race instead of the Arkansas Derby, Common Defense has put in three workouts on the track, the most recent the third best of 42 timed workouts on the day for five furlongs (:59.60), which demonstrates he is getting better as he matures. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Common Defense for the first time in the Rebel —he’s also been aboard stablemate Real Men Violin (another Louisiana Derby entrant trained by Ken McPeek) in his last five races — and sticks with Common Defense for this race. A Race Lens query tells us in the last year when McPeek and Hernandez Jr. team up in dirt route stakes, they have won at very strong 26% clip (11 for 43) and betting them to win has returned nearly $4 for every $2 bet to win. As such, Common Defense appears to be the horse to beat in this year’s Louisiana Derby.
Track Phantom gets the outside post and usually a horse with his early speed could be disadvantaged. In this case, since he nearly won the Risen Star Stakes last month when breaking from the 11 post in a field of 12, I am not concerned. Not only are there very few other horses in the field that have shown a desire to lead early in a race, this 1 3/16-mile trip starts at the top of the stretch, allowing for considerable time for jockey Joel Rosario to guide Track Phantom closer to the rail before the first turn. Prior to the Risen Star, Track Phantom won three races in a row since stretching out to two turns in November, including the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, earning Equibase Speed Figures of 100 and 93, respectively. On a sloppy track in the Risen Star Stakes, Track Phantom had an easy lead from the start in a field of 12 but was caught near the finish line by an exceptionally talented horse in Sierra Leone, who is expected to make his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. That effort earned Track Phantom a 99 speed figure second only to the 102 figure Common Defense earned in the Rebel. Depending on how easily Track Phantom can get the lead he likes in the early stages of the Louisiana Derby, he has the potential to be very tough to catch in this race.
Real Men Violin and Honor Marie finished second and first, respectively, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. Honor Marie rallied from last of eight, while Real Men Violin was fifth in the early stages before being outfinished by the winner. Honor Marie earned a strong 98 Equibase Speed Figure for that effort, while Real Men Violin earned a 95 figure when two lengths behind at the finish line. Both made their return to the races in the Risen Star last month, with Honor Marie moving up from 11th to fifth with an 89 figure. In the Risen Star, Real Men Violin finished eighth with an 80 figure. Last October, Real Men Violin beat Track Phantom by a half-length, so perhaps making his second start off the layoff, Real Men Violin could improve back to that level. Additionally, Real Men Violin worked in company with Common Defense on March 16, with both colts running five furlongs in a very strong :59.60, both of which were the third fastest of 42 workouts on the day at the distance. Honor Marie might also improve second off the layoff and back to the form shown last fall.
Last, but not least, among a quintet of contenders is Catching Freedom, who won the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day with a 97 figure before a third of 12 finish in the Risen Star with a similar 96 figure. He was only 1 ¼ lengths behind runner-up Track Phantom at the end, and with another consistent effort could also be in the mix in deep stretch in the Louisiana Derby.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Agate Road (92), Antiquarian (84), Awesome Ruta (86), Hall of Fame (84), Next Level (83), Triple Espresso (84), and Tuscan Gold (83).
Top Contenders in preference order:
Common Defense
Track Phantom
Real Men Violin
Honor Marie
Catching Freedom
Pick 4
1-13-3/4/5-5
1-13-3/4/5-5
$230
Pick 5
10-1-13-3/4/5-5
10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$1,289
Pick 5
BAYOU BLUEGRASS 1-10-5-10-5
BAYOU BLUEGRASS 1-10-5-10-5
$8,782
Pick 6
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$5,805
Pick 6
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$72
Superfecta
5-7-11-12
5-7-11-12
$139
Trifecta
5-7-11
5-7-11
$179
Pick 4
1-13-3/4/5-5
1-13-3/4/5-5
$230
Pick 5
10-1-13-3/4/5-5
10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$1,289
Pick 5
BAYOU BLUEGRASS 1-10-5-10-5
BAYOU BLUEGRASS 1-10-5-10-5
$8,782
Pick 6
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$5,805
Pick 6
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
2-10-1-13-3/4/5-5
$72
Superfecta
5-7-11-12
5-7-11-12
$139
Trifecta
5-7-11
5-7-11
$179
