Who will take home first prize in Saturday’s $800,000, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park? That’s a tough question, because the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier has drawn arguably the strongest field seen on the Derby trail since last year’s Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA.
Coupling a lucrative purse with 42 Kentucky Derby qualification points (split 20-10-6-4-2 among the top five finishers) has drawn a dozen entrants for the Southwest, including three horses who have already won 2024 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve qualifiers: #4 Otto the Conqueror (5-1), #5 Wynstock (4-1), and #6 Liberal Arts (8-1).
Let’s start with Wynstock, from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Baffert has won the Southwest a record six times, including the last two editions, and Wynstock has every chance to hand Baffert a seventh win. The son of Solomini faltered in his first two starts sprinting, but is 2-for-2 since stretching out around two turns, posting a front-running, 7 ½-length win in a one-mile maiden special weight race at Santa Anita Park before leading almost all the way to post a gritty half-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity.
But Wynstock isn’t the only speed horse entered in the Southwest. Otto the Conqueror has posted a pair of gate-to-wire victories sprinting, and he won the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes after pressing a hot pace. #1 Maycocks Bay (3-1) has done his best work racing on the front end, including leading from start to finish in a 10 ¾-length score in a $100,000 allowance-optional claimer at Fair Grounds. #7 Carbone (9-2) could be any sort of talent after front-running wins in his first two starts, including an $80,000 allowance-optional claimer at Oaklawn, by daylight margins. And don’t forget about #10 Mystik Dan (12-1), who has shown pacesetting or pace-pressing speed in three of his four starts, including when fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn.
Further complicating matters is the possibility for a sloppy track. There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday at Oaklawn, and a wet track could lead to unpredictable results. The Southwest is often won by horses rallying from behind, especially when rain strikes. Essential Quality and Spielberg closed from behind to finish 1-2 on a sloppy track in 2021. My Boy Jack (an 8-1 longshot) and Combatant rallied to run 1-2 on muddy footing in 2018. Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore closed from out of the clouds for a 1-2 sweep on a track rated good in 2016, and sloppy ground in 2015 allowed Far Right and The Truth Or Else to run 1-2.
Granted, Baffert’s Arabian Knight managed to lead wire to wire in the 2023 Southwest on a sloppy track, but he was an overwhelming 2-5 favorite who went on to beat older horses in the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes in the summer. The 2023 Southwest runner-up, Red Route One, was a 15-1 longshot who rallied from last place.
So, what if the 2024 Southwest unfolds at a fast pace on a wet track? It could set the stage for a longshot to rally from behind and steal top honors. And in my opinion, the most likely horse to do so is the above-mentioned Liberal Arts, who unleashed a last-to-first rally on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs to win the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, a Kentucky Derby points race on Oct. 29.
The Street Sense didn’t feature the toughest field on paper, but Liberal Arts won by 2 3/4 lengths and had already demonstrated his talent in previous starts. In Churchill’s one-mile, Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Liberal Arts rallied through some traffic to finish third by two lengths. And in a maiden special weight sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Ellis Park, Liberal Arts prevailed by one length over Otto the Conqueror.
Liberal Arts is a son of Arrogate, whose sons and daughters win at a lofty 26% rate on wet tracks according to Brisnet statistics. Remember Arrogate’s accomplished daughter Secret Oath? She won the 2022 Longines Kentucky Oaks on a wet-fast track at Churchill Downs.
The thought of getting 8-1 odds on a proven Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race winner with a favorable running style and a proven affinity for sloppy footing is too enticing to pass up. Whether you’re playing on a $10 budget or a $30 budget, we recommend betting Liberal Arts to win.
For our $30 play, we’ll add an exacta using Carbone, Wynstock, and also #12 Awesome Road (8-1) for second place. The latter colt has faltered in his first two Road to the Kentucky Derby starts, finishing seventh in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and fifth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s encouraging to see him taking another shot for the red-hot jockey-trainer duo of Florent Geroux and Brad Cox. Awesome Road won his debut impressively against quality competition and has the talent to challenge on his best day.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #6 Liberal Arts
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 11th race, $10 to win on 6
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$18 to win on #6 Liberal Arts
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 11th race, $10 to win on 6
$4 exacta: 6 with 5,7,12 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 11th race, $4 exacta 6 with 5,7,12
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
2-4/6-10
2-4/6-10
$221
Pick 4
1/7/8-2-4/6-10
1/7/8-2-4/6-10
$623
Daily Double
4-10
4-10
$21
Superfecta
10-11-6-12
10-11-6-12
$375
Trifecta
10-11-6
10-11-6
$278
Pick 3
2-4/6-10
2-4/6-10
$221
Pick 4
1/7/8-2-4/6-10
1/7/8-2-4/6-10
$623
Daily Double
4-10
4-10
$21
Superfecta
10-11-6-12
10-11-6-12
$375
Trifecta
10-11-6
10-11-6
$278
