The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve takes a big turn on Saturday with the running of the $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. No fewer than 200 Kentucky Derby qualifications points are up for grabs in the 1 3/16-mile race, divided in 100-40-30-20-10 fashion among the first five finishers. The winner is all but guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and the runner-up and third-place finisher also have a chance to qualify for the race.
With so much on the line, the Louisiana Derby annually draws a strong field, and it can be a tricky race to analyze. Fortunately, history can help us with our handicapping. Studying the historical results of graded stakes can reveal trends and tendencies common among past winners, which in turn gives us clues to identify future winners.
With this in mind, we’ve dug through the last dozen years or so of Louisiana Derby history and uncovered six trends to aid our handicapping:
Tactical speed is an asset
It pays to show speed in the Louisiana Derby. 10 of the last 12 winners were positioned in the top four after the opening half-mile, including three winners (Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, and Vicar’s in Trouble) who led at that juncture.
In contrast, the last dozen years have seen only two Louisiana Derby winners (International Star and Revolutionary) rally from the back half of the field after the opening half-mile. Unsurprisingly, one of those victories came in 2013, which featured the fastest half-mile pace fraction of the last 12 years.
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Year
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Winner
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Position after first 1/2-mile
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1/2-mile & 3/4-mile times
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2022
|
Epicenter
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3rd by 1.5 lengths (9 starters)
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47.35, 1:11.69 (fast)
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2021
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Hot Rod Charlie
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1st by 0.5 lengths (8 starters)
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47.04, 1:11.25 (fast)
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2020
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Wells Bayou
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1st by 1.5 lengths (14 starters)
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48.00, 1:12.42 (fast)
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2019
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By My Standards
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4th by 3.5 lengths (11 starters)
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47.68, 1:11.54 (fast)
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2018
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Noble Indy
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2nd by 1 length (10 starters)
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46.61, 1:11.47 (fast)
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2017
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Girvin
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4th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters)
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47.00, 1:11.15 (fast)
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2016
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Gun Runner
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3rd by 2 lengths (10 starters)
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48.24, 1:12.94 (fast)
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2015
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International Star
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7th by 7 lengths (9 starters)
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48.59, 1:13.27 (fast)
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2014
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Vicar’s in Trouble
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1st by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)
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47.86, 1:12.14 (fast)
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2013
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Revolutionary
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12th by 12.25 lengths (14 starters)
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46.34, 1:11.84 (fast)
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2012
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Hero of Order
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2nd by 1.5 lengths (13 starters)
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47.27, 1:11.55 (fast)
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2011
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Pants On Fire
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2nd by 1 length (12 starters)
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47.53, 1:12.02 (fast)
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Mix favorites and big longshots
Generally speaking, the Louisiana Derby is a predictable race. Six of the last 12 winners started as the betting favorite, while another three winners started at less than 4-1. You definitely want to include the favorite in the superfecta, because the top betting choice has finished on the board in 10 of the last 12 years.
But from time to time, strange things happen in the Louisiana Derby. Hero of Order famously sprung a 109.40-1 upset in 2012. By My Standards landed in the 2019 winner’s circle at 22.50-1. Tom’s Ready finished second at 30.50-1 in 2016, Mylute gained the runner-up spot at 19-1 in 2013, Ny Traffic battled to second place at 26.70-1 in 2020, and 36.20-1 shot Nehro occupied the same position in 2011.
Our advice? Mix the favorites with longshots you like at big prices. You might just identify an overlooked winner or runner-up, triggering lucrative payoffs.
Bet proven graded stakes horses
The Louisiana Derby doesn’t play kindly toward up-and-comers without stakes experience. Six of the last 12 Louisiana Derby winners (Epicenter, Girvin, Gun Runner, International Star, Vicar’s in Trouble, and Revolutionary) had previously won a graded stakes, while another five (Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, Noble Indy, Hero of Order, and Pants On Fire) had cracked the top four in a graded stakes.
During the same timeframe, only one horse without graded stakes experience – the maiden winner By My Standards – has managed to claim top honors in the Louisiana Derby. It’s always tempting to think outside the box and support untested maiden and allowance types with the potential to develop into stars, but recent history suggests doing so in the Louisiana Derby isn’t a winning strategy.
Watch out for Todd Pletcher
Trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t start horses at Fair Grounds very often, but he’s certainly been successful in the Louisiana Derby. Pletcher has won the race four times since 2007, and along the way he’s also saddled a quartet of second-place finishers. They haven’t all been short prices either; Mission Impazible won at 7.10-1 in 2010, while Stanford finished second by a neck at 7-1 in 2015. And just last year, Pletcher’s 15.70-1 longshot Pioneer of Medina ran third in the Louisiana Derby.
Bet on jockey Florent Geroux
Arguably no jockey has enjoyed more success at Fair Grounds over the last decade than Florent Geroux, whose Fair Grounds win percentage since 2018 stands at a lofty 24%. Geroux’s many Fair Grounds victories include triumphs in the Louisiana Derby aboard Gun Runner and Wells Bayou, and Geroux has also finished second in the Louisiana Derby aboard Zozos (2022) and Stanford (2015).
Local runners hold an advantage
Horses with experience at Fair Grounds have an advantage in the Louisiana Derby. Eight of the last 12 winners previously contested the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford at Fair Grounds, including four horses (Epicenter, Girvin, Gun Runner, and International Star) who won both races. Another Louisiana Derby winner, By My Standards, exited a maiden victory at Fair Grounds.
On the other hand, two of the last three Louisiana Derby winners (Hot Rod Charlie and Wells Bayou) won the Louisiana Derby while racing at Fair Grounds for the first time, a feat also achieved by Revolutionary (2013). All three had previously won or placed against graded stakes competition, so they came to the Louisiana Derby with lofty credentials.
Conclusions
We’ve analyzed the data. The trends have spoken. Among the dozen horses entered in the 2023 Louisiana Derby, the most likely winner is #11 Jace’s Road.
That’s right. The historical trends aren’t bothered by the fact Jace’s Road finished fifth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time out, which can probably be attributed to racing a sloppy track; he also faltered in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes over a sloppy track last year.
The historical trends are more intrigued by Jace’s Road’s third-place finish in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs (which proved he can compete at the graded stakes level) and his gate-to-wire victory in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds (which showed he has an affinity for this racetrack).
Jace’s Road boasts plenty of tactical speed, so his running style is a good fit for the Louisiana Derby. Just as importantly, he’s slated to be ridden by Florent Geroux. Many of the historical trends we’ve outlined apply to Jace’s Road, stamping the Brad Cox trainee as a serious win contender.
#3 Curly Jack is another runner worth supporting from a historical perspective. He’s a proven graded stakes winner, having won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last fall. He has tactical speed, leading from start to finish in his debut and more notably finishing second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes while employing pace-tracking tactics. And he’ll be a longshot in the betting after kicking off 2023 with an eighth-place finish in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
Curly Jack never really factored in the Risen Star, but that was his first run off a three-month layoff, and he might have been a bit rusty. His effort two starts back in the Kentucky Jockey Club was solid, as Curly Jack finished only 1 ½ lengths behind #2 Instant Coffee, the likely Louisiana Derby favorite after winning the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Instant Coffee’s affinity for Fair Grounds is appealing, as is the fact he’s won multiple graded stakes. He’s an obvious win contender, but his stretch-running style isn’t the best fit for the Louisiana Derby from a historical perspective.
We also have to mention #6 Kingsbarns. True, he’s never run at Fair Grounds, and he’s yet to contest a graded stakes. But he’s trained by Todd Pletcher, and that’s reason enough to respect this stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo. Kingsbarns is unbeaten in two starts on the Florida circuit, most recently trouncing the field in an allowance optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs by 7 ¾ lengths, so it’s clear he has talent and potential.
Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the Louisiana Derby!
Pick 4
3-5-1-6
3-5-1-6
$1,108
Pick 5
6-3-5-1-6
6-3-5-1-6
$5,451
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$434
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$51,901
Superfecta
6-5-11-1
6-5-11-1
$351
Trifecta
6-5-11
6-5-11
$192
Pick 4
3-5-1-6
3-5-1-6
$1,108
Pick 5
6-3-5-1-6
6-3-5-1-6
$5,451
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$434
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$51,901
Superfecta
6-5-11-1
6-5-11-1
$351
Trifecta
6-5-11
6-5-11
$192
