Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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6 Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you.
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

It doesn’t get any better than this. After months of prep races, the fields have come together for two of the biggest race days of the year – Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday May 5 and Kentucky Derby Day on Saturday, May 6. The Longines Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will both feature full fields and are loaded with numerous legitimate contenders, and both will be amongst the best betting races of the entire year. The Kentucky Oaks headlines Friday’s 13-race card at Churchill Downs, and The Kentucky Derby will be the focal point of a 14-race Churchill Downs card on Saturday. It should be lots of fun. Let’s pick the winners and exotics for the Derby and the Oaks. Best of luck.

Friday, May 5

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $1,250,000 Longines Kentucky Oaks, post 5:51 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the main track and drew most of the standouts in the 3-year-old filly division making it one heckuva handicapping puzzle. If you can put the pieces together, you should get paid. The horse that leads the pack is the morning line favorite, #7 Wet Paint, who takes her show on the road after dominating the Oaklawn Park route to the Kentucky Oaks with three big wins in the $200,000 Martha Washington Stakes, the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes and the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes by a combined margin of 7 ½ lengths. We’ll see if she can be as effective away from Oaklawn. The West Coast’s standout 3-year-old filly, Bob Baffert-trained Faiza, will not be in attendance for the Oaks, so let’s search the other circuits for more contenders in the exotics. #13 Affirmative Lady really has come into her own in her last two starts since adding blinkers for trainer Graham Motion and it seems like her impressive win last time in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks Presented by FanDuel TV was only scratching the surface of what this filly might be capable of doing. Another contender with ample upside is #4 Southlawn, who comes in off back-to-back big wins at Fair Grounds including the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks Presented by Fasig-Tipton where she defeated #2 The Alys Look and #14 Pretty Mischievous with ease.

The Play: Out of the horses mentioned above, the best odds belong to #13 Affirmative Lady (10-1), so bet her to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #4 Southlawn (8-1), and #7 Wet Paint (5-2).

Saturday, May 6

Churchill Downs, Race 12, $3,000,000 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, post time 6:57 p.m. ET

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The 2023 run for the roses has assembled a loaded and contentious field, and it's truly anybody's race now that morning-line favorite, #15 Forte, the 2022 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner and 2-year-old champion, is scratched with a foot bruise. There will be an 18-horse field including all three of the original also-eligibles going 1 ¼ miles for the first time, and the horse with the best chance for success in that scenario is #14 Angel of Empire, who looked like dynamite in back-to-back come-from-behind wins at 1 1/8 miles for trainer Brad Cox in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford at Fair Grounds and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last time. He’s getting better with every start and looks ready to peak on Derby Day. Steer clear of the horses drawn down inside in the disadvantageous post positions 1-2-3 and wait for the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets to bet the long-striding #5 Tapit Trice. Instead, fill-out your exotics with a trio of value-packed yet fairly obvious contenders, including Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner #6 Kingsbarns and the UAE Derby Presented by Atlantis the Royal winner, #17 Derma Sotogake, and the other Japanese-based horse in the field, #22 Mandarin Hero. Kingsbarns is Todd Pletcher's overlooked contender in the race who is undefated in three starts and exiting a wire-to-wire win at 1 3/16 miles where he ran the final furlong in :12.1. Japan’s Derma Sotogake was absolutely eye-popping when going wire-to-wire at 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse to earn his trip to Louisville. Mandarin Hero already has a North American outing under his belt and it was an excellent effort in a nose loss in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. These are all horses that could take advantage of a pace that figures to be more moderate than a typical Kentucky Derby pace this year. Note that the Japanese have taken the world by storm the last couple years on international race days all over the globe, and there’s no reason they can’t hit the board here as well, or even win it with their legitimate contenders, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero.

The Play:  Bet #4 Angel of Empire (8-1) to win and use him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #6 Kingsbarns, #17 Derma Sotogake, and #22 Mandarin Hero.