The Grade 2, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap brings a full field of 12 together running the one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct. Three of the group will be returning on four weeks rest after competing in Breeders’ Cup races, and all three were well-beaten but fit at the level based on top races prior to that.
Hoist the Gold is one of the trio, having won the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes in October prior to a sixth-place effort in the Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Three Technique finished eighth in the Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint after a victory in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes two races prior. Senor Buscador won the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July and most recently was seventh in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. Others bring top credentials into the race, particularly a trio that just finished first, second, and third in the Grade 2 Forty Niner Stakes at this distance and at Aqueduct on Oct. 28. In the Forty Niner, previously known as the Kelso Handicap, Everso Mischievous was victorious by a half-length over Dr Ardito, with Accretive another nose behind in third. Among the others, Coastal Mission has won eight of nine races this year including six in a row, though none was a graded stakes, the most recent being in the Sam Huff West Virginia Breeders’ Classic Stakes. Offaly Cool won the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile Stakes in mid-October and attempts to run as well in his first graded stakes try. High Oak earned his best placing in a stakes race this year when second in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes near the end of October and also won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes Presented by Miller Lite in 2021 as a 2-year-old. Cascais has only run three times but makes his second start following a fine second-place finish after more than 11 months off for Chad Brown, who also saddles Accretive and Dr Ardito. Pipeline has a couple of in the money finishes in stakes races in his career, most recently when third in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in the summer of 2022, but he has not been competitive in three races this year. Castle Chaos rounds out the field, entering the race off an allowance-level win and running in a stakes race for the first time.
Main win contenders:
Accretive gets slight preference among the top three finishers in the Forty Niner because of a “common race” handicapping theory which has had a good deal of success over the years. This theory states that when two or three horses finish close together in a previous race, often their positions will be reversed the next time they meet. This theory has a lot of value in handicapping this year’s Cigar Mile, because although he was third, beaten a half-length at the finish line, Accretive might have won the Forty Niner if not for what occurred at the start. When the gates opened, Accretive broke just a bit to his right and a bit slowly and almost veered into the horse just outside of him. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. had to correct Accretive to his left, and in doing so the horse lost a couple of lengths. Finding himself four lengths back after a half-mile, as compared to within a half-length in his two victories this year, Accretive was then also forced to go about five paths wide on the far turn. Nevertheless, Accretive fought gamely to be within a half-length of the lead with yards to go, but that early expenditure of energy cost him the needed kick, so much so that he was passed late and lost second place by a nose. Prior to the Forty Niner, Accretive earned a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten just a length and a half by Cody’s Wish in the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes. Considering Cody’s Wish put on a show to win the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his next start after the Vosburgh, we can conclude Accretive is going to run the best race of his career (with a clean start) and may be the one to beat in this year’s Cigar Mile Handicap.
Dr Ardito found himself 11 lengths behind the early leader after a half-mile of the Forty Niner had been run, and 10 lengths behind eventual winner Everso Mischievous. However, jockey Manny Franco, who has now ridden the horse in 11 of his 12 career starts, got Dr Ardito to pick up the pace on the far turn, gaining ground on the leader at that stage of the race. After running five paths wide on that turn, Dr Ardito put in a visually impressive late run to come up just a half-length short, earning a 103 speed figure just one point shy of the winner. Dr Ardito truly loves the Aqueduct main track, where he has won five of seven races and has finished second in two others, the fastest of which earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which is higher than the career-best 104 figure Everso Mischievous earned in his most recent race and not far from the Accretive’s 110 best figure. Certainly, if the pace is fast as it was in the Forty Niner. Dr Ardito has a chance to run past the field and win.
There’s no knocking Everso Mischievous, who has won four of six races and finished second in the other two. His Equibase Speed Figures have improved consistently all season, from 97 in June to 98 in August, and then to 99 in September before a 104 for winning the Forty Niner. In that race, Everso Mischievous moved up from second and engaged in a three-horse battle on the turn before emerging with a half-length margin and holding the same margin to the finish line. As a 3-year-old, Everso Mischievous still has improving to do, and as such has every right to win his second graded stakes in a row.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Cascais (103), Castle Chaos (102), Coastal Mission (114), High Oak (93), Hoist the Gold (111), Offaly Cool (111), Pipeline (105), Senor Buscador (115), and Three Technique (110).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Accretive
Dr Ardito
Everso Mischievous
Pick 3
2-3-11
2-3-11
$132
Pick 4
3/6-2-3-11
3/6-2-3-11
$172
Pick 5
2-3/6-2-3-11
2-3/6-2-3-11
$4,267
Pick 6
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
$43,444
Pick 6
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
$309
Daily Double
3-11
3-11
$33
Superfecta
11-3-9-7
11-3-9-7
$273
Trifecta
11-3-9
11-3-9
$199
Pick 3
2-3-11
2-3-11
$132
Pick 4
3/6-2-3-11
3/6-2-3-11
$172
Pick 5
2-3/6-2-3-11
2-3/6-2-3-11
$4,267
Pick 6
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
$43,444
Pick 6
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
8-2-3/6-2-3-11
$309
Daily Double
3-11
3-11
$33
Superfecta
11-3-9-7
11-3-9-7
$273
Trifecta
11-3-9
11-3-9
$199
