One of the most intriguing races taking place on the first weekend in August is the $400,000, Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Saturday at Del Mar, a race won since the turn of the century by champions Riboletta (2000), Azeri (2002 and 2003), Zenyatta (2008, 2009, and 2010), Beholder (2015), Stellar Wind (2016 and 2017), and Unique Bella (2018). The Clement L. Hirsch is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.
The field for the 2023 edition is small with only five fillies and mares in the entries, but that doesn’t mean it’s an unappealing betting race. To the contrary, this year’s Clement L. Hirsch presents a fascinating handicapping challenge: namely, what do we make of expected favorite #3 Adare Manor, a filly whose brilliance is occasionally undermined by surprising defeats?
As a 3-year-old early in 2022, Adare Manor looked like a monster in the making. She smashed a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park by a dozen lengths, them dominated the Grade 3 Las Virgenes Stakes over the same track and distance by 13 lengths. These runaway triumphs stamped Adare Manor as the heavy favorite to win the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks, but after dueling for the lead she lost by a neck, kicking off a four-race losing streak that saw her fall to defeat three times as the favorite.
Adare Manor turned things around earlier this year and has been impressive in her last two starts at Santa Anita, wiring the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes by 4 ¾ lengths and the 1 1/8-mile Grade 2 Santa Margarita Stakes by 4 ½ lengths. But can she maintain her winning ways?
There are a couple of reasons to believe Adare Manor can be beaten in the Clement L. Hirsch. The first is the presence of #1 Elm Drive, a speedy sprinter exiting a close third-place finish in the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes at Los Alamitos. Elm Drive has lots of speed and figures to be a pacesetting presence while breaking from the rail off a series of fast workouts, so Adare Manor is unlikely to secure an uncontested lead like she did in the Santa Maria and Santa Margarita.
The other reason to oppose Adare Manor is the fact she’s facing #5 Desert Dawn, the filly who rallied to defeat Adare Manor in the 2022 Santa Anita Oaks. The remainder of Desert Dawn’s 3-year-old season was encouraging if not quite as productive; she ran third in the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, third in the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks, and then second in the Clement L. Hirsch (beaten only by future Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up Blue Stripe) and second again in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes. The latter two races were held at Del Mar, where Desert Dawn won for the first time back in 2021.
Desert Dawn hasn’t been as strong in 2023, and she exits a distant third-place finish behind Adare Manor in the Santa Margarita. But if Adare Manor gets caught up dueling with Elm Drive for early supremacy in the Clement L. Hirsch, might Desert Dawn turn the tables while returning to Del Mar? A repeat of her performance from last year’s Clement L. Hirsch would surely be good enough to vie for victory.
So how should we bet the Clement L. Hirsch? Let’s take a stand and rely on Desert Down to upset Adare Manor. That should have us covered for the exacta, but bettors playing on larger budgets can also consider a trifecta adding Grade 1 La Brea Stakes winner #2 Fun to Dream and Santa Margarita runner-up #4 Kirstenbosch for third place.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 exacta: 5 with 3
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $10 exacta 5 with 3
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 exacta: 5 with 3
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $20 exacta 5 with 3
$5 trifecta: 5 with 3 with 2,4 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $5 trifecta 5 with 3 with 2,4
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
