Betting the Woodbine Oaks on a Budget

Gambling
Curlins Voyage will attempt to win the Woodbine Oaks
Curlin's Voyage, pictured in the Fury Stakes, will attempt to win the Woodbine Oaks Saturday. (Michael Burns/Woodbine)

The $500,000 Woodbine Oaks Presented by Budweiser ranks as Canada’s most prestigious race for Canadian-bred 3-year-old fillies, but the importance of this 1 1/8-mile race runs much deeper. It’s also an important steppingstone toward the Queen’s Plate Stakes, Canada’s historic equivalent to the Kentucky Derby.

Over the last decade, four fillies – Inglorious (2011), Lexie Lou (2014), Holy Helena (2017), and Wonder Gadot (2018) – have used the Woodbine Oaks as a springboard to success in the Queen’s Plate. Inglorious, Lexie Lou, and Holy Helena all managed to win both races, so if you’re keeping your eyes open for serious Queen’s Plate contenders, you’ll want to see what transpires in Saturday’s renewal of the Woodbine Oaks.

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, Aug. 13: 2-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Friday, Aug. 14: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Aug. 15: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS1; 5-6 p.m. ET on NBC; 6-7 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Aug. 16: 1-2 p.m. ET on FS2; 2-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

The filly to beat is #1 Curlin’s Voyage, a formidable daughter of two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin. A tried-and-true Woodbine specialist, with four victories from eight starts over the local Tapeta track, Curlin’s Voyage competed with aplomb against stakes company as a 2-year-old, finishing second in the 1 1/16-mile Mazarine Stakes against open company, and later rallying to victory in the 1 1/16-mile Ontario Lassie Stakes against fellow Canadian-breds.

Curlin’s Voyage has run twice so far in 2020, competing in a pair of sprint stakes to sharpen her fitness for the Woodbine Oaks. After finishing second in the Star Shoot Stakes, dashing just three-quarters of a mile, Curlin’s Voyage stepped up to seven-eighths of a mile and rallied tenaciously to win the Fury Stakes by a head over #9 Justleaveitalone, who came right back to win a 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Woodbine.

Stretching back out in distance ought to improve the chances of Curlin’s Voyage, who should be poised to post a career-best performance in her third start of the season. Trainer Josie Carroll has been hot at Woodbine this year, winning at a rate of 23 percent, and three-time Woodbine Oaks-winning jockey Patrick Husbands has the mount. For all these reasons, I’m expecting a winning effort from Curlin’s Voyage.

#7 Merveilleux, beaten a head by Curlin’s Voyage in the Ontario Lassie, is another logical contender. She kicked off the season with a pace-pressing allowance win traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Woodbine Tapeta, after which she rallied from off the pace to finish fourth in the Selene Stakes over the same track and distance. Returning to the company of fellow Canadian-breds should help Merveilleux’s chances, and she is also liable to improve while wearing blinkers for the first time.

The wildcard in the Woodbine Oaks field is #8 Lasting Union, who has never raced at Woodbine or on a track with a synthetic racing surface. But the daughter of Union Rags has really stepped up her game in recent months for trainer Michael Matz of Barbaro fame, wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Laurel Park before dominating a 1-mile and 70-yard allowance race at Delaware Park by a dozen lengths.

The latter effort was particularly noteworthy, because Lasting Union posted strong speed figures (87 Beyer, 96 Brisnet), and runner-up Annika Gold returned to win a similar allowance race with ease. There’s no way to know how Lasting Union will handle the switch to Tapeta, but if she finds the footing favorable, it’s going to take a talented challenger to run her down.

Bettors playing the Woodbine Oaks on a small budget should feel safe keying Curlin’s Voyage in the exacta with Merveilleux and Lasting Union. The potential payoff isn’t massive, but the chance of cashing a winning ticket is high.

On the other hand, if you’re keen to shoot for a bigger score, keying Curlin’s Voyage on top in the exacta and trifecta offers the potential to produce lucrative returns, albeit on a larger budget. No matter which strategy you elect to follow, we’ve got you covered:

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$3 exacta: 1 with 7,8 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $3 exacta 1 with 7,8

$3 exacta: 7,8 with 1 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $3 exacta 7,8 with 1

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$6 exacta: 1 with 7,8 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $6 exacta 1 with 7,8

$3 trifecta: 1 with 7,8 with 7,8 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $3 trifecta 1 with 7,8 with 7,8

$2 trifecta: 1 with 7,8 with 5,9,10 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $2 trifecta 1 with 7,8 with 5,9,10

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

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