Muth Rolls to Arkansas Derby Victory, May Target Preakness

March 30th, 2024 by Byron King

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Oaklawn Park, 2024 Arkansas Derby, Muth, Bob Baffert

Muth leaves the field behind in the stretch to win the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. (Tommy Land/Eclipse Sportswire)

Last fall, Muth and Fierceness showed the world they were elite 2-year-olds with a 1-2 finish in the Nov. 3 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA at Santa Anita Park. Nearly five months later on March 30, in different parts of the country, the same two horses illustrated they continue to be just as special as 3-year-olds.

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About an hour after Fierceness romped in the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'N' Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park, it was Muth's turn to shine in the $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with an impressive two-length win over runner-up Just Steel.

But while Fierceness will head to Churchill Downs as the likely favorite for the May 4 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, Muth will not. Muth's trainer, Bob Baffert, is banned from entering horses at Churchill Downs and Muth cannot run. Instead, a race like the May 18 Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown at Pimlico Race Course, is likely to fall into Muth's future plans.

In the Arkansas Derby, Muth ran like one of the country's best 3-year-olds, putting away favored Timberlake on the second turn and maintaining a comfortable advantage over runner-up Just Steel down the stretch. The winner sped 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:49.54, returning $6.60 to win.

Juan Hernandez rode the Zedan Racing Stables-owned Muth, a son of Good Magic that was purchased for $2 million as a 2-year-olds in training.

Mystik Dan finished 4 ¼ lengths behind Just Steel and rallied to grab third by a half-length over fourth-place finisher Timberlake. Informed Patriot was fifth.

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As part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, the Arkansas Derby offered Kentucky Derby qualifying points to its second through fifth finishers on a 50-25-15-10 scale. The Arkansas Derby is the richest 3-year-old prep in the series.

Just Steel (65 overall points) and Timberlake (81 points) would appear in a safe position to qualify for the field for the Kentucky Derby, which typically oversubscribes beyond its maximum field size of 20 horses.

Mystik Dan is currently 15th on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with 46 points but is likely to be passed by other 3-year-olds after major prep races next week. Inevitably, however, defections and scratches occur in the lead-up to the Derby, opening up starting positions.

Seven horses from the Arkansas Derby have won the Kentucky Derby, all since 1983, including four since 2004. Country House, third in 2019, won the Kentucky Derby via disqualification. Four years before him, Baffert trainee American Pharoah took the Arkansas Derby on his way to a sweep of the Triple Crown, which ended a 37-year drought in the series.

Muth improved to 4-2-0 in six starts with his triumph in the Arkansas Derby. He earned $787,500 in the Arkansas Derby to elevate his career earnings to $1,504,100.