The Hot Springs, Ark. path to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve continues Saturday with the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes, a $1.25 million race and the third of four qualifying races at Oaklawn Park for 3-year-olds targeting the 2024 run for the roses.

Catching Freedom won the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1 in the first of the Oaklawn points races and Mystik Dan followed with a victory in the Southwest Stakes Feb. 3, but the purse and point structure of the Rebel give the race even more gravity.

The Rebel offers the winner 50 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby – essentially a guaranteed spot in the starting gate – while the second- through fifth-place finishers earn 25, 15, 10, and five points, respectively, toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.

The Rebel Stakes is scheduled for 6:23 p.m. ET and will be televised on a Saturday afternoon broadcast of “America’s Day at the Races” on FS2 along with other races from Oaklawn Park. The Rebel also will be shown on FanDuel TV.

Here are five questions to be answered in the 2024 Rebel Stakes …

1. What feels so different about this edition of the Rebel Stakes? When I first looked at the Rebel Stakes field, something struck me as odd that I could not place right away. But then it hit me: there is no Southern California presence in the race. Southern California shippers have won nine of the last 15 editions of the Rebel with eight winners in the timeframe from the barn of Bob Baffert and one trained by Richard Mandella. Likewise, neither the Smarty Jones Stakes winner nor the Southwest Stakes winner returns for the Rebel. Catching Freedom, winner of the Smarty Jones, ran third last week in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds; the connections of Southwest winner Mystik Dan opted to point for the Arkansas Derby March 30 at Oaklawn. The Southwest was postponed a week due to inclement weather from Jan. 27 to Feb. 3, and the three-week turnaround for the Rebel was less appealing to Mystik Dan’s trainer Ken McPeek.

2. What should we expect from morning-line favorite Timberlake in his long-awaited return? Last year’s Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Timberlake (#7) was pegged the 6-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Brad Cox in his first start in 16 weeks since a fourth-place finish behind champion Fierceness in the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. So much can change in four months of time for a Thoroughbred racehorse from fall of his 2-year-old season to late February in his 3-year-old campaign. It’s a time of mental and physical maturation for most Thoroughbred racehorses and it can be very tough to predict how they will perform off an extended break like this one. As Keeler Johnson identified in his tips and trends blog on betting the Rebel Stakes, nine of the last 10 Rebel winners raced in January or February while those making their season debuts were just 1-for-13 in the last 10 years. Only 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was able to overcome that trend. Timberlake showed plenty of talent at 2 and a race similar to his 4 ½-length romp in the Champagne Stakes very likely would be good enough to win this race. But he’s trying to win off five published workouts at Fair Grounds at close to odds-on, and I would rather have my money on the Into Mischief colt in his second start off the long layoff rather than this spot.

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3. They say “pace makes the race,” so what type of pace scenario are we looking at for the Rebel? Nine of the 13 3-year-olds entered in the Rebel have at least one win when either first or second at the first point of call on the past performances, and of those nine it would not surprise me if any one of five horses was in front entering the first turn: Carbone (#1), Northern Flame (#2), Tejon Pass (#4), Lagynos (#9), or Time for Truth (#13). My best guess is that the outside post will force the issue for jockey Rafael Bejarano and Time for Truth, who won a sprint in front-running fashion in his debut and enters off a second in the three-quarter-mile Ozark Stakes Feb. 10 to highly regarded Valentine Candy. Absent California speed, I expect the pace to be strong but perhaps not quite as fast as you might expect with so many press-the-pace type runners in the field.

4. Do any longshots pique your interest? Two runners at double-digit odds look like they can make a significant impact on the race and spice up the payouts. Longshots have done well in filling out the exacta and trifecta in the Rebel in recent years. Trainer Keith Desormeaux, who won this race last year with 18.50-1 Confidence Game, entered Next Level (#8) off a runner-up finish in a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Oaklawn Jan. 28. Next Level set the pace and faded badly late in the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds, but Desormeaux used different tactics in his most recent start and settled him well off the pace before making one big late run. I could see that being an effective strategy in the Rebel with multiple horses jockeying for position on or near the lead. I also expect Time for Truth to handle stretching out in distance and outrun his 15-1 morning-line odds for trainer Ron Moquett, who wins at 17% when stretching out to a route race off consecutive sprints. He’s one of the faster horses in the field and I think there is a lot of bang for the wagering buck at anything above 10-1 odds, in fact …

5. So, who is the pick to win? While I loathe the post position, I love Time for Truth’s chances to spring the upset here. His dam (mother), Shape Shifter, by Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky, was a winner around two turns and sire Omaha Beach could carry his speed a long way. Tactical speed has been very effective in the Rebel and he’s in good form with two quality races since Dec. 31. My best guess is Rafael Bejarano expends some energy early so he’s not hung too wide entering the first turn and then allows Time for Truth to settle on or near the lead. I think we see a breakout race from a lightly raced, but talented prospect. I also really like Dimatic (#6), a well-bred Gun Runner colt coming off a maiden win for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

MIKE’S SUPERFECTA: 1. Time for Truth; 2. Dimatic; 3. Timberlake; 4. Next Level