BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last week, Catching Freedom won the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and Endlessly took the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, a pair of races each distributing 200 total qualifying points for the 150^th Kentucky Derby to the top five finishers. This Saturday, March 30, three more 200-point preps are on the schedule: the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, and the United Arab Emirates Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

A rematch of the Dec. 2 Remsen Stakes, when Dornoch defeated Sierra Leone by a nose at Aqueduct, is set to take place April 6 in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Besides the allure of Keeneland’s signature race of the spring, the Blue Grass has the added benefit of being only 70 miles down the road from Churchill Downs, the home of the Kentucky Derby. Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, is proven over the Keeneland strip, having rolled to a 6 ½-length maiden victory there in his first test beyond a mile last fall. Victories followed in the Remsen and by 1 ¾ lengths over a depleted field in the March 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

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2. Fierceness

Expecting a return to form in the March 30 Florida Derby after his disappointing third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. He had excuses for that defeat (layoff, slow start, and rushed up), and he has trained lights out since, though he has always been a sharp-breezing horse. This colt is brilliant when he runs to his potential and gets the right trip, as he showed in winning the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA in blazing time last fall. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher also means business in the Florida Derby, year after year. Seven times he has won the race, with six of those victories coming since 2014.

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3. Sierra Leone

His victory in the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds over a sloppy track was in an ordinary time of 1:52.13 for 1 1/8 miles, though the race seemed to be a high-quality Derby prep. The form from the race was validated when Catching Freedom, third in the Risen Star, triumphed in the March 23 Louisiana Derby. Other top finishers from the Risen Star, runner-up Track Phantom and fifth-place Honor Marie, also ran well to be respectively fourth and second in the Louisiana Derby. Excited for Sierra Leone’s showdown with Dornoch in Blue Grass. That race should give observers a line on who has developed the most since. Both were green in the Remsen last fall.

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4. Forever Young

There is the potential for multiple Japanese runners in this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown. T O Password qualified for the race via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, and this unbeaten colt – who is widely regarded as the best from the Land of the Rising Sun – can punch his ticket with a top-two finish in the Saturday’s UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. The Saudi Derby winner will be heavily favored in international wagering pools. UAE Derby runners have struggled mightily in the Derby through the years, with not one of its 19 participants finishing better than fifth. But it is perilous to overlook Japanese runners on the international stage.

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5. Catching Freedom

Having rallied from last to win Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, the longest domestic prep at 1 3/16 miles, he looks well suited to handling the Derby’s classic distance of 1 ¼ miles. Although closers ran 1-2 in the race (with this victorious colt joined by Honor Marie), the half-mile and six-furlong splits for the race were actually a bit on the slow side. Since Fair Grounds extended the Louisiana Derby to 1 3/16 miles in 2020, only last year’s race unfolded with slower splits at those calls. It is a promising sign when a late runner can prevail without the benefit of a pace meltdown.

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6. Timberlake

The 2023 Champagne Stakes winner, successful in his unveiling at 3 in the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, returns there for the March 30 Arkansas Derby. He will face opposition led by Mystik Dan, Liberal Arts, Time for Truth, and Muth – though the latter is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby. Though Timberlake was visually impressive in winning the Rebel, the 2-3-4 finishers did not flatter the form from the race in follow-up starts. Rebel runner-up Common Defense ran fifth in the Louisiana Derby; show finisher Northern Flame was eighth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks; and fourth-place Rebel runner Woodcourt was sixth there.

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7. Mystik Dan

After skipping to victory over a muddy track in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, he is likely to catch a fast track in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby. Dry conditions are forecast leading up to the race. He broke his maiden on a fast track in quick time at Churchill Downs in the fall, but his two fast-track routes resulted in a pair of fifths. The Arkansas Derby should provide answers to some of those form questions. In addition to liking the mud, he may have also improved in the Southwest due to a change in tactics. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. brought him from farther off the pace, and he responded with a much stronger finish.

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8. Deterministic 

After shipping north to win the March 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, he returned to Christophe Clement’s winter base at Payson Park in South Florida, where he worked five furlongs March 21 in 1:03.60. His connections are keeping open their options for the next race for this 2-for-2 colt, with the April 6 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct being one of the more attractive options. His next race, expected to come around two turns, should be telling about his distance potential. He finishes like a horse who should handle added ground, though his dam was a turf sprinter.

Lauren King/Coglianese Photo

9. Conquest Warrior 

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has taken a patient approach with this colt’s development, giving him a confidence-boosting allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream after a maiden win there. Now Conquest Warrior ventures into much deeper waters in Saturday’s Florida Derby, where he faces Fierceness and Hades, among others. McGaughey won the 2013 Florida Derby with Orb, who would win the Kentucky Derby later that spring. The 1 1/8-mile distance is not an issue for this colt, who pulled away down the stretch over the trip last out.

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10. Hades

Things went his way when he captured the Holy Bull. He was able to set a comfortable pace, and Fierceness was off poorly and racing after a layoff. Still, observers have to like how he kept finding more after being asked on the second turn, when it looked like Fierceness might blow past him. Holy Bull runner-up Domestic Product, whom Hades defeated by two lengths, returned to win the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. This gelding is well drawn to utilize his speed from post 2 with a short run to the first turn in the Florida Derby.

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11. Honor Marie 

Having a race behind him when fifth in the Risen Star and catching a fast track appeared to make a significant difference in the Louisiana Derby. He finished with energy to be a quality second but was simply outkicked by Catching Freedom, who finished a length ahead of him. Honor Marie earned a 97 Equibase Speed Figure, nearly matching his top from last fall when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs with a 98 ESF. That race, along with a maiden victory beneath the Twin Spires, gives him appeal as a “horse for the course.”

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12. Liberal Arts

The fade from Track Phantom in the Louisiana Derby, his second defeat since stretched out beyond 1 1/16 miles, results in his departure from the Dozen and presents an opening for this 2023 Street Sense Stakes winner to join. (Track Phantom is still pointed to the Derby but does not appear as suited to the 1 ¼-mile distance as others.) As for this colt, he seems ready to take a leap forward in the Arkansas Derby after a comeback third in the Southwest. No one was beating a mud-loving Mystik Dan in the Southwest, but this colt caught the eye with his determined charge to be third. He would have caught runner-up Just Steel in another few strides.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds are in the Derby Dozen, including Arkansas Derby entrant Muth. Look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.