BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

No qualifying points preps for the 150^th run for the roses were held last week, but two are on tap for Saturday, March 23: the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. Both races offer 200 points to the top five finishers, distributed on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park

1. Dornoch 

Despite winning two consecutive graded contests, the 2023 Remsen Stakes and the March 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, he was just the fifth choice among individual betting interests at 13-1 odds in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager. That can be attributed to the workmanlike nature of his Fountain of Youth victory, in which he defeated a suspect field after several key scratches. This is a colt that seems to run to his competition. So whether he runs next in the March 30 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park against Fierceness, Conquest Warrior, and Hades or against Sierra Leone in the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, his next race should provide an accurate gauge of his place in the Kentucky Derby pecking order.

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2. Fierceness

A month and a half away from the May 4 Kentucky Derby, few horses are training as well as the reigning 2-year-old champion male of 2023, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner. Granted, he has always been a great work horse, but his last couple of breezes, in which he has left the 2-for-2 Tuscan Sky far behind, have been particularly head-turning. Those moves would seem to point to him bouncing back in the Florida Derby from a blah third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes, which admittedly came in a comeback race and following a slow start. The colt has fooled his connections and racing fans before with inconsistency, however.

Dana Wimpfheimer photo

3. Sierra Leone

With a high-class pedigree, excellent form, and seemingly tailor-made for the classic Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, he has legions of supporters. He went off as the 7-1 favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager, with bettors no doubt encouraged by the improved professionalism he displayed in catching Track Phantom in the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Racing with blinkers, he finished with more focus than he had when defeated by Dornoch in the Remsen in his final start at age 2. Though Sierra Leone does not race until the Blue Grass, the March 23 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby should shed some light on a slow running of the Risen Star, which seemed a loaded race. Six of the 12 entrants in the Louisiana Derby competed in the Risen Star.

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4. Forever Young

Time-oriented handicappers are understandably intrigued by this unbeaten Japanese colt, who shipped to the Middle East and caught Book’em Danno by a head to win the Saudi Derby on Feb. 24 at King Abdulaziz Racetrack. His time for the about one-mile distance was 1:36.17, more than two seconds faster than the average time from the four prior runnings of the Saudi Derby. Though the track surface at King Abdulaziz was quicker this year than in the past, it was not to the extent that it offsets the speed of his performance. Goes next in Dubai in the March 30 United Arab Emirates Derby at Meydan.

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5. Timberlake

This WinStar Farm co-owned runner, who scored in the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, is headed back there for the March 30 Arkansas Derby, WinStar Farm president and CEO Elliott Walden tweeted March 15. The richest prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a purse of $1.5 million, the Arkansas Derby figures to draw a number of high-class runners, including Mystik Dan, Time for Truth, and more than likely a shipper from the California-based trainer Bob Baffert. Those immediately behind him in the Rebel, runner-up Common Defense and third-place Northern Flame, race Saturday in the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks, respectively. Their performances may reflect upon this colt’s Rebel win.

Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography

6. Track Phantom

He drew the far outside post in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, but that means little. There is more than a quarter-mile run to the first turn in this 1 3/16-mile contest, and he possesses the speed seemingly to clear all or much of the field. After racing over a sloppy track when second in the Risen Star, he will likely race over a fast surface. Near-perfect conditions are forecast in New Orleans on Saturday: sunshine with a high of 72 degrees. His three victories, including stakes wins at Fair Grounds in the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes, have come on dry surfaces.

Coady Photography

7. Catching Freedom

Though he ran well over a sloppy track in the Risen Star to finish third, he should be just as comfortable on a fast track in the Louisiana Derby. His two victories have come on fast surfaces, including in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on New Year’s Day. Among those defeated in that race was Mystik Dan. This colt acts like he should appreciate the Preakness Stakes distance of 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, though more speed horses entered to challenge Track Phantom would have been favorable for his chances.

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8. Mystik Dan

His eight-length romp in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn earned him a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest domestic figure of 2024 to date by any horse eligible for the Derby. Mystik Dan earned his figure when skipping over a muddy sealed track with a rail-skimming trip. Two prior routes on fast tracks resulted in fifth-place finishes. Perhaps a change in tactics also moved him forward. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. took him farther off the pace, and he exploded late under the patient handling. Arkansas Derby next.

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9. Deterministic

For a horse that has yet to race two turns, this colt has considerable support. He was the sixth individual choice in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 16-1 odds. He certainly finished in the one-mile Gotham Stakes March 2 at Aqueduct like a horse who should appreciate added ground, but there are some sprint influences on the dam side of his pedigree. Talent and not seasoning will have to carry him if he makes his way to Churchill Downs for a start on the first Saturday in May. If he runs in the 1 1/4-mile Derby, he will have only three existing starts.

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10. Conquest Warrior 

Though his speed figures do not compare to the top Dozen runners, he gives the appearance of being of high quality. A $1 million yearling purchase, he has won two of three starts. He overcame trouble to break his maiden going a one-turn mile. Then he was professional in defeating a useful 3-year-old named Merit by five lengths in an allowance optional claiming race on March 1 at Gulfstream. He likely needs a 1-2 finish in the Florida Derby to be assured of gaining entrance into the Kentucky Derby and giving Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey the confidence the horse would be ready for such a demanding test.

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11. Hades

He is similar to Conquest Warrior in that he has impressed visually without running speed figures that point to him as the Derby winner. His top two Equibase Speed Figures are a 97 and a 95, with the latter figure earned when he set a comfortable pace in the Holy Bull. Note that Domestic Product, who rallied to be second, returned to win the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Another matchup with Fierceness looms in the Florida Derby after Hades and last year’s champion 2-year-old were 1-3 in the Holy Bull. Hades was ultra-sharp in a March 10 in-company drill at Gulfstream.

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12. Honor Marie 

A second consecutive lackluster breeze from prior No. 12 Tuscan Sky, albeit in company with the classy Fierceness, results in the Tuscan Sky’s departure from the Dozen, creating an opening for Honor Marie to return. Though this late runner was a non-factor when fifth in the Risen Star, passing only tired horses, it was a comeback race that unfolded with a slow pace and over an off track. His two wins have come on fast surfaces, topped by his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall. He should be tighter for the Louisiana Derby after a return he likely needed.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds are in the Derby Dozen. Look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.