BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

The first Saturday in February will be a key date in terms of sorting out early contenders for the first Saturday in May. Four qualifying points preps are scheduled for Feb. 3: the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Fierceness

The 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner and newly crowned champion 2-year-old male of 2023 leads a field of eight in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who trains Fierceness for Repole Stable, appreciates the spacing of the Holy Bull before the major Kentucky Derby preps in late March and early April. If he runs well in the Holy Bull over the Gulfstream track, the March 30 Florida Derby would be an enticing final prep before the run for the roses. Pivoting to a race like the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland would be another option.

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2. Locked 

Another Todd Pletcher trainee, last year’s Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile show finisher, is scheduled to run a week later than Fierceness in the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Pletcher’s prior Derby winners – Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017 – also made their first starts as 3-year-olds at Tampa. Super Saver ran third in the Tampa Bay Derby before a second in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, and Always Dreaming kicked off his year with a maiden triumph at Tampa before follow-up wins in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream and the Florida Derby there.

Dornoch (inside) defeats Sierra Leone. (Eclipse Sportswire)

3. Dornoch 

This winner of two of four starts is pointed to a later return than the top two in the Dozen, aimed at the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. He raced later into the fall than Fierceness and Locked and had a break after a hard-fought nose victory in the Dec. 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he recorded his second workout of the winter at Palm Meadows Training Center Jan. 30 with a half-mile timed in :49.15.

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4. Track Phantom

This colt followed up his initial stakes victory in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds with another emphatic victory in the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes, his first race in graded company. The frontrunning win was visually impressive, though his 93 Equibase Speed Figure was the lowest winning ESF in the Lecomte since Mr. Bowling ran an 89 in taking the 2012 race. The race was similarly light among other speed figure makers. Still, Track Phantom has won three in a row, which, coupled with his speed and class, lands him fourth in the Derby Dozen rankings.

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5. Sierra Leone

With his pedigree and good looks – by an elite sire, out of a Grade 1 winner, and a $2.3 million yearling buy – expectations have always been high. He has produced, as well, winning his debut in a mile maiden race at Aqueduct and then narrowly missing in the Remsen when a nose behind Dornoch. Though he was beaten in the final furlong of the Remsen, a long sustained rally from last may have left him a bit fatigued, particularly in his first attempt at two turns and over 1 1/8 miles. Expect him to improve with racing, which will likely come next in the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.

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6. Forever Young

Japanese trainer Yoshito Yahagi – of Breeders’ Cup fame with Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine at Del Mar in 2021 – came to Churchill Downs last year with Continuar. The latter was withdrawn before the race when Yahagi decided he was not sufficiently fit for the 1 ¼-mile challenge, and the colt’s training had been uninspiring. Following that letdown, perhaps Yahagi returns this year with this more highly-regarded runner, who is perfect in three starts following a seven-length romp in the Dec. 13 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun.

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7. Timberlake

With his stakes victory coming in the one-turn, one-mile Champagne Stakes in the slop last year, he has more questions to answer than other leading Derby competitors with two-turn experience, but his talent is obvious. Besides the Champagne, he also ran second in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both on fast tracks. Though beaten eight lengths in the latter race around 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita Park, he still ran a 98 ESF, reflective of just how fast the Juvenile was. Ultimately, the key for him will be how well he relaxes. He is prone to being keen early, which could sap some of his late strength in a race like the Derby at 1 ¼ miles.

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8. Nash

As noted in the Derby Dozen profile for Track Phantom, the Lecomte was not fast based on speed figures – this colt’s pace-chasing second resulted in only an 88 ESF. That was down from a 95 when he showed in the Gun Runner and from a 101 when he scored on the lead at Churchill Downs in a maiden race in the fall. Having run a bit below expectations in his two stakes starts – off-the-pace losses as the favorite on both occasions – perhaps he is not as good as hyped in the fall or maybe he prefers racing on the lead. Jockey Florent Geroux seemed like he wanted to go to the front in the Lecomte, but when Track Phantom outbroke his mount and had a slight advantage on him entering the first turn, he opted to chase.

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9. Honor Marie 

He brings a nice race record into his 3-year-old season, having won two of three starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in the fall at Churchill Downs. Even his one loss was a quality effort – a runner-up finish at Churchill over seven furlongs in the slop to Otto the Conqueror, who would win the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes late last year and is entered in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes. The Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes is this 3-year-old’s next intended start, with the 1 1/8-mile distance of that race and long Fair Grounds stretch seemingly up his alley.

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10. Catching Freedom

Albaugh Family Stables have become regulars in the Derby and on the Derby Trail. Last year, they won the Arkansas Derby with Angel of Empire, who would finish third in the run for the roses, their sixth starter in the first leg of the Triple Crown, all since 2016. This colt similarly appears to be a progressive type without distance limitations, though his stakes win in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park came against ungraded company and with him running down Just Steel, a colt with better sprint than route form. Just Steel’s performance in Saturday’s Southwest may provide more of a barometer on Catching Freedom and the strength of the Smarty Jones.

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11. Hall of Fame

A two-turn maiden race proved a good learning experience for this $1.4 million yearling purchase, who rolled from just off the pace in a  Jan. 20, 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Fair Grounds in his second career start. After some initial reluctance to advance inside the leader, who was setting a hot pace, Hall of Fame took over and shot away to score by 10 ¼ lengths. Though he came home a bit slowly with a final sixteenth in :6.90, his final time of 1:44.27 was faster than stablemate Track Phantom’s clocking of 1:44.73 in the Lecomte. The Risen Star is up next.

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12. Born Noble 

Deciding on the final spot in the Derby Dozen is always a challenge, with horses such as Conquest Warrior, Knightsbridge, and Speak Easy among those considered, but Born Noble clings to the final spot. He impressed in his lone start Dec. 30 at Gulfstream, running seven furlongs in 1:24.26 despite drifting inward down the lane. Take note that when Todd Pletcher gave Fierceness his fastest work before Saturday’s Holy Bull – five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in :59.48 on Jan. 20 – he put the champion in company with this colt, and Born Noble stayed competitive while appearing second best. This 3-year-old runs in a first-level allowance optional claimer over a one-turn mile Saturday at Gulfstream that goes as the sixth race.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, such as Muth and Nysos, are in the Derby Dozen, though they are two of the top 3-year-olds in the country. A logical target is the May 20 Preakness Stakes, which Baffert won last year at Pimlico Race Course with National Treasure.