This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this fifth edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races from the last two weeks of racing on the Triple Crown trail.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Deterministic

Dom Napolitano/NYRA

The gap between Deterministic and Timberlake for the top spot is pretty thin. Timberlake feels like the better bet to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate based on four extra races of experience including success at the Grade 1 level, but I opted for Deterministic because he made the greater leap from maiden winner to graded stakes winner, plus he has a bit more upside. Deterministic won his career debut Aug. 12, 2023, at Saratoga Race Course by a half-length going seven-eighths of a mile. He returned from a layoff of 6 ½ months and handled a significant test in class, stretching out in distance to a mile, and an “off” (sealed, sloppy) track in winning the $300,000 Gotham Stakes by two lengths March 2 at Aqueduct. Deterministic completed his final quarter-mile in about :25.10 under Joel Rosario and boosted both his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures 12 points to 99 and 93, respectively. There is no doubt that with only two races under the saddle, the Liam’s Map colt needs more experience and foundation to be a serious threat at 1 ¼ miles on May 4 at Churchill Downs. He also will need to take another step forward in terms of speed figures to make up some ground on the fastest 3-year-olds in the division, but trainer Christophe Clement and Rosario are two of the best in the business and Deterministic looks like a 3-year-old with loads of promise.

Eclipse Sportswire

2. Timberlake

First appearances can sometimes be a bit deceiving, and that’s my evaluation of the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. I wasn’t blown away by Timberlake’s two-length win over what I viewed as an average field – as it happened – but I did like it better on second and third viewings. He looked very professional early in the race when stalking a solid pace and then when launching his winning bid entering the final turn. He was a bit green in the stretch as Timberlake was late changing leads and lugged out a bit, but he leveled off nicely in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by two lengths in his first start in 16 weeks, completing his final sixteenth of a mile in a very fast 6.09 seconds. Timberlake won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in 2023 and also ran second in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and fourth in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, so this was a promising return to action. Timberlake equaled a career-best 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the Rebel and came within a tick of equaling his career-best Equibase Speed Figure, which was a 106 for the Champagne victory. I was likewise encouraged by the 9 ¾ he earned on the Ragozin Sheets. Timberlake could be poised to take a big step forward in his second start of the year for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox in his final Kentucky Derby prep, probably in either the Arkansas Derby on March 30 or the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 6. Timberlake should excel as the races get longer based upon pedigree and how he finished in the Rebel, so I view him as a big threat to hit the board on Kentucky Derby day.

Forever Young (outside) (Eclipse Sportswire)

3. Forever Young

Every year there seem to be one or two wild cards for the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young fits that profile in 2024. He’s unbeaten in four starts and headed to Dubai for a planned start in the $1 million, 1 3/16-mile United Arab Emirates Derby on March 30. The bay colt by Real Steel swept his three starts in his native Japan by four lengths, 1 ½ lengths, and seven lengths, respectively. Forever Young earned 20 points on Japan’s Road to the Kentucky Derby slate with a dominant win in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki in the last of those three races, but rather than stay on that path his connections shipped him to the Middle East. Forever Young proved up to that challenge Feb. 24 as he rallied willingly to reel in Book’em Danno in the final strides and win the $1.5 million Boutique Group Saudi Derby by a head. He was the odds-on favorite in the Saudi Derby in parimutuel betting pools and could be an even heavier favorite in the UAE Derby, which awards 100 points to the winner and 50 points to the runner-up toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. A top-two finish in the UAE Derby would punch Forever Young’s ticket to Louisville. Although the Dubai to Derby path has yet to produce a winner in the first jewel of the Triple Crown, Japanese racehorses have proved formidable across the world, winning a pair of Breeders’ Cup races in 2021 as well as the Dubai World Cup and UAE Derby in 2023. Forever Young has flashed ability with four wins in as many starts, and he’s got a fantastic pedigree. His sire, Real Steel, is a son of Japanese superstar racehorse and stallion Deep Impact and his dam (mother), grandam (maternal grandmother), and third dam (maternal great-grandmother) all were U.S. stakes winners and stakes producers. It’s the family of Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy as well as 2024 Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone. I expect him to win the UAE Derby and come to the U.S. with significant hype.

Encino (Coady Photography)

Also-eligible: I considered Encino for the final spot in the top three this week after he rallied past stakes-winning favorite Epic Ride to win the $142,500 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes by a length March 2 at Turfway Park. Encino earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and an 89 Beyer Speed Figure for the win, so the speed figures indicate it was a quality effort. He’s made all three of his starts on the Tapeta Footings all-weather surface at Turfway, but the Godolphin homebred Nyqusit colt should be able to handle a switch to dirt. His dam, Glittering Jewel, by 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini, is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. … Dornoch handled his business in the $400,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, extending his winning streak to three with a facile front-running, 1 ¾-length score under Luis Saez March 2. The Fountain of Youth was reduced to five starters with four of the nine entrants scratched, so I’m not sure how much we learned about Dornoch in this victory as the 1-5 favorite. The full brother (same dam [mother] and sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage earned a new career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure in his first start in three months, so it was a solid return and should set him up nicely for a Kentucky Derby bid.

THREE COOLING DOWN

Susie Raisher/NYRA

1. Bergen

I expected more out of Bergen in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes March 2 at Aqueduct. With a solid second previously in a one-turn mile last November at Churchill Downs and coming off a dominant win sprinting on a muddy track in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes Jan. 27 at Aqueduct, Bergen looked like a great bet to run well on another off track in the Gotham. Instead, he showed little when finishing eighth, beaten by 21 ¼ lengths as the 4.30-1 third betting choice in the 11-horse field. It’s not the end of the world; in fact, it could just be a blip. The Liam’s Map colt clearly has ability and it could be he doesn’t mind an off track, but the soupy surface Saturday at Aqueduct may have had a bit too much moisture. In terms of Kentucky Derby prospects, however, Bergen does not have any qualifying points as of early March. With some stamina concerns and the competition getting better as we creep closer to the May 4 run for the roses, Bergen has a steep climb to get back in the mix for a starting spot, and time is running short.

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2. Carbone

Like Bergen, Carbone has not yet earned any qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. After winning his first two races in November at Churchill Downs and December at Oaklawn Park by a combined margin of 12 lengths, Carbone made his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and faded badly to finish seventh, beaten by 21 ¾ lengths by winner Mystik Dan. The Southwest was on a muddy track and it was Carbone’s first try on an “off” track, so I gave the Mitole colt a pass and drew a line through the race. Carbone ran better on a dry track in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Feb. 24 at Oaklawn, but he still faded late after setting the pace and finished sixth, beaten by 7 ¾ lengths. It was worth a look on the Derby trail, but my instinct is that Carbone might be better suited to one-turn races with a bright future as a sprinter-miler.

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3. Just Steel

It’s easy to root for D. Wayne Lukas, 88, and it would be nice to see the Hall of Fame trainer send out a 3-year-old with a big chance on Kentucky Derby day. Lukas won the first jewel of the Triple Crown in 1988 with Winning Colors, 1995 with Thunder Gulch, 1996 With Grindstone, and 1999 with Charismatic, so when Just Steel ran second in the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes there was justifiable reason for excitement. The Justify colt endured a wide trip in the Rebel, but he really did not show much while finishing seventh of 12, 10 lengths behind Timberlake. With 15 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, Just Steel is on the outside looking in for the 20 spots in the starting gate. I have no doubt Lukas will give him at least one more shot to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby, but with 10 starts on his résumé I believe what you see is what you get with Just Steel. He won a stakes race sprinting and has hit the board in a few Derby qualifying races; I’m just not sure he’s quite fast enough to be a true Kentucky Derby threat for his beloved trainer.