Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule that offers qualifying points for the first leg of the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Deterministic, the two-length winner of the $300,000 Gotham Stakes on March 2 at Aqueduct. The Liam’s Map colt earned 50 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and moved into fifth place on the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard after winning his stakes debut.

Racing Résumé: There is not much to dig into here in terms of résumé. Deterministic won his career debut impressively on Aug. 12, 2023, at Saratoga Race Course by closing from off the pace to win by a half-length and then returned from a layoff of more than 6 ½ months to win the Gotham March 2 in his first try against stakes competition.

Deterministic overcame quite a few obstacles in his return to action. He stretched out from seven-eighths of a mile to a mile, faced a stern class test going from a maiden race to a Grade 3 stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail, and took on 10 opponents compared with seven in his first race. The Liam’s Map colt also competed on an “off” track for the first time as the Gotham was held on a sealed, sloppy main track at Aqueduct.

The $625,000 purchase at the 2022 Keeneland September yearling sale capably handled everything thrown at him in the Gotham as he rallied from fifth after the opening quarter-mile to win by two lengths. He completed his final quarter-mile in about :25.10 under Joel Rosario and his final eighth of a mile in about :12.75 to power clear late.

“I had a long talk with Joel last night and he was delighted with the horse,” winning trainer Christophe Clement said on Sunday. “He thought that he was a lot more mature yesterday than what he was in his first race, so there’s a lot to enjoy and a lot to like.”

Clement said no decision has been made on what is next for Deterministic, who will ship back down to Florida join his trainer at his Payson Park Training Center winter base.

“At the moment, the only worry is the well-being of the horse and we'll go from there,” Clement said. “We'll get him to a work and the work will tell us what to do with him.”

Speed Figures: Deterministic improved his Equibase Speed Figure 12 points from an 87 in his career debut to a 99 for the Gotham victory and also boosted his Beyer Speed Figure by a dozen points from an 81 to a 93. Certainly, that significant jump off a layoff of more than 180 days is reason for encouragement, and he will need to maintain that upward trajectory to compete with the best 3-year-olds in the final round of Kentucky Derby prep races.

Running Style: Deterministic raced within a couple of lengths of the pace in the Gotham after he tracked from 4-5 lengths back in his debut. He profiles as a stalker-closer type who can race comfortably off the pace and make his move approaching the stretch. I love racehorses who are able to identify a target or targets and reel them in when asked to accelerate, especially a lightly raced prospect like Deterministic. Of course, racing off the pace introduces possible challenges like traffic and uncontested pacesetters that can compromise a runner’s chances.

Connections: St. Elias Stable purchased Deterministic for $625,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September yearling sale and he made his debut in August 2023 for the partnership of St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable.

St. Elias is the racing operation of Vincent Viola, founder and executive chairman of the electronic trading firm Virtu Financial, former chairman of the New York Mercantile Exchange, and the owner of the National Hockey League’s Florida Panthers. Viola was a part-owner of 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and raced in partnership with Mike Repole 2019 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso.

Winning connections at the Big A. (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Ken Langone founded along with Bernard Marcus and Arthur Blank the home improvement store Home Depot, a start-up that would later become a nationwide chain employing more than 300,000 people. C. Steven Duncker is a retired Partner of Goldman Sachs & Co., where he successfully led the company’s Global Credit Derivative Department. Vicarage Stables is the racing operation of Kevin Warsh, who served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011. Warsh now serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Trainer Christophe Clement has amassed 2,439 victories through March 3, including 269 graded stakes wins, since taking out his trainer’s license in 1991. He won the Belmont Stakes with Tonalist in 2014 but has never had a starter in the Kentucky Derby, which Clement said is not a priority.

“To run, no – to win, yes,” said Clement, with a laugh. “Running is not very exciting, but winning is. If [Deterministic] was to go that route, that would be very exciting.”

Clement also trained 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Pizza Bianca, but his best runner to date was Gio Ponti, runner-up in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic to Zenyatta and the 2010 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile to Goldikova, a pair of Hall of Famers. Clement is the son of successful French trainer Miguel Clement and grew up in his father’s Chantilly yard.

Joel Rosario, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby aboard Orb, has ridden Deterministic for each of his two starts. The 2021 Eclipse Award winner as outstanding jockey has won the Belmont Stakes twice, with Tonalist (2014) for Clement and Sir Winston (2019), and 15 Breeders’ Cup races, including the Classic in 2018 on Accelerate and 2021 on Knicks Go, among more than 3,500 victories to date.

Pedigree Notes: Deterministic is from the fifth crop of 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map, whose top runners to date include two-time Pegasus World Cup Turf winner Colonel Liam and Grade 1 winners Wicked Whisper, Juju’s Map, and Basin. By Unbridled’s Song, Liam’s Map has shown some versatility with runners excelling on turf, dirt, and synthetic surfaces as well as in sprint and distance races.

Deterministic hails from the family of champion Althea, a full-sister to his multiple graded stakes-winning and multiple stakes-producing fourth dam (maternal great-great grandmother), Aguilegia, by Alydar. Third dam (maternal great-grandmother), Amelia, by Dixieland Band, was a stakes winner who produced five stakes winners as well as 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough. More recently, Deterministic’s dam (mother), Giulio’s Jewel, won three of nine starts with all three wins coming in sprints.

There is plenty of class in this pedigree, although I do think there is some reason for concern that 1 ¼ miles might be pushing the stamina limits of Deterministic as we get closer to the May 4 Kentucky Derby.

Derby Potential: Deterministic looks like an incredibly promising 3-year-old prospect; truly, the sky is the limit here. His Gotham win off a six-month layoff was eye-opening and trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joel Rosario are two of the best in the business. He looks more mature and experienced than a colt with just two starts, but that is my primary concern as it pertains to his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. If he has one more prep race, Deterministic still will have just three races of experience and foundation (stamina) entering the 1 ¼-mile first jewel of the Triple Crown. With a pedigree that is a little light on stamina, I think that looms as a significant hurdle, but Deterministic appears to be an elite talent on the precipice of an exciting 3-year-old season.