This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this seventh edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races from last weekend on the Triple Crown trail.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Fierceness

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If Fierceness runs the race he ran March 30 in the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa five weeks later in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, the rest of the field is running for second. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male delivered a tour de force 13 ½-length runaway victory in the Florida Derby, the largest margin of victory in the history of the race. He earned a career-best 110 Beyer Speed Figure, a figure that is well above the average winning Kentucky Derby Beyer (103) figure over the last nine years, and matched his career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure. The Beyer Speed Figure in particular is notable because it is one of only five triple-digit figures earned by a 3-year-old this year. Two of the five came in sprints; one was recorded by Nysos, who is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby and sidelined with a minor injury; and the other was a 101 for Mystik Dan in the Southwest Stakes, who came back and ran third in the Arkansas Derby. Fierceness has now run two monster races for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Repole Stable, the other coming in the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. I was pretty harsh on him for a lackluster effort when third in the Holy Bull Stakes in his season debut, but the Florida Derby signaled he still has that “A” race in him. Fierceness is inconsistent and has struggled with adversity at times, which he very likely will face May 4 at Churchill Downs, but he has Kentucky Derby-winning talent and that’s a huge part of the battle. I can certainly understand wanting to bet against him in the first jewel of the Triple Crown – and I might do just that – but the Florida Derby was a “wow” race and it moves him firmly back to the top of the 3-year-old division after a not-so-promising first start in 2024. There are three major prep races this weekend, but right now Fierceness looks like the one to beat in the Kentucky Derby.

2. Just Steel

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I admit, I had largely written off Just Steel before the Arkansas Derby. He’d run second twice in Oaklawn Park Kentucky Derby prep races, but that seventh-place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, beaten by 10 lengths by Timberlake, did little to further his case as a bona-fide Kentucky Derby prospect. The Justify colt from the barn of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas stepped up in a big way March 30 at Oaklawn, where he battled gamely through the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby to finish second behind Muth at 32.50-1 odds and earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He’s only won twice in 11 starts, but Just Steel has posted four seconds and one third along the way while banking $724,545. From a speed-figure perspective, Just Steel was actually sneaky strong entering the Arkansas Derby and his 112 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure for the runner-up finish, both new career-best numbers, paint him as a real player for a top-three finish if he can duplicate that race or improve slightly. It will be nice to see Lukas on the backside at Churchill Downs with his first Kentucky Derby starter since Bravazo in 2018. Just Steel would be the 50^th career Derby starter for “the Coach,” who won the race in 1988 with Winning Colors, 1995 with Thunder Gulch, in 1996 with Grindstone, and in 1999 with Charismatic. There are some similarities between Just Steel and Charismatic. Both seemed to be somewhat late bloomers with only a handful of wins – three in 14 pre-Derby starts, one via disqualification, for Charismatic –  who bounced back smartly in their final prep race and had an expansive, stamina-building foundation of races. I’d be surprised to see Just Steel and Lukas in the winner’s circle May 4, but this Justify colt could rate just in behind the pace and hang on for minor placing.

3. Forever Young

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This week’s Kentucky Derby profile offers more detail on what I like and don’t like about Forever Young as it pertains to his chances to win the Kentucky Derby, but the reason why he’s not higher on this week’s list is because he was already included in this blog after his Saudi Derby victory. When he shipped from Japan to Saudi Arabia and won a $1.5 million race, I became a believer and elevated him on my list of Derby contenders. I expected him to be even better in the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Atlantis The Royal on March 30 at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai … and he was. Forever Young won by two lengths – he needed to win as he earned his first 100 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby after shifting off the Japan path to the run for the roses – in a performance that showed improved maturity and impressive stamina at 1 3/16 miles. The Real Steel colt out of the Grade 2-winning Congrats mare Forever Darling hails from a classy family and owns an unblemished record of five wins in as many starts for a terrific Japanese trainer in Yoshito Yahagi. Had Forever Young won a major prep race in New Orleans or California, New York, or Kentucky, he would be much more appealing as a Kentucky Derby contender. Shipping to Louisville after competing in Dubai in the UAE Derby has not, however, been a recipe for success. UAE Derby runners have zero top-three finishes in 19 starts in the Kentucky Derby. It’s a major challenge to ship more than 7,000 miles and race again in five weeks against the best competition of your career while also adapting to an entirely different climate. These are animals, not machines, so while I love Forever Young the racehorse I am concerned about outside factors that could diminish his chances. I’ll need to see him looking fresh and spry in his AM workouts at Churchill Downs to consider him a win candidate.

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Also-eligible: Endlessly was mentioned in the also-eligible section last week as well. The Jeff Ruby Steaks winner March 23 at Turfway Park would have cracked my top three last week, but trainer Michael McCarthy said the plan was to target a Grade 2 turf race on the Kentucky Derby undercard rather than the first jewel of the Triple Crown. The Oscar Performance colt has won five of his six races overall with three wins on grass and two on synthetic surfaces, but he has never raced on dirt. McCarthy and owner Amerman Racing now are considering running Endlessly in the Kentucky Derby, according to a Thoroughbred Daily News report, and based upon pure talent (supported by speed figures) he would be a serious player if his ability translates to dirt. It’s a big question for sure, but Endlessly is definitely worth monitoring at Churchill Downs leading up to the race to see how he trains on the dirt main track. … Catalytic most likely cemented a spot in the Kentucky Derby with a distant second behind Fierceness in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. His 50 points ranks 13^th on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard, so it would take a string of unfortunate events to push him outside the top 19 (with Japan’s T O Password taking the 20^th and final slot from that country’s Road to the Derby series). The Catalina Cruiser colt rose from Kentucky Derby afterthought to contender in the span of about 1:49 on Saturday, so Catalytic made a huge leap. I’m skeptical, however, that a 3-year-old with only a maiden win to his credit among three lifetime starts and average speed figures is ready for this jump in class. Catalytic showed significant ability in the Florida Derby, but the Kentucky Derby against 19 other talented 3-year-olds is an entirely different ballgame.

THREE COOLING DOWN

1. Hades

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Hades was unbeaten in three starts entering the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa March 30 at Gulfstream Park, but a poor start combined with champion Fierceness running unchallenged on the lead conspired against the Holy Bull Stakes winner. Hades was not really a factor in the race, finishing fifth and 19 ¾ lengths behind winner Fierceness. That left Hades in a precarious spot in terms of the Kentucky Derby with 30 qualifying points. He’s currently 19^th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with four prep races yet to come, including three 200-point races this weekend. Even if he does draw into the field, it would be a difficult task for the Awesome Slew gelding to turn his form around against the toughest competition of his career after regressing from a 95 Equibase Speed Figure for the Holy Bull to an 80 in the Florida Derby. My best guess is that Hades will be short on qualifying points, and that might be for the best for this talented, but lightly raced prospect.

2. Conquest Warrior

There are always talented 3-year-olds with promising futures whose connections give them a shot on the Derby trail because you get only that one opportunity with a Thoroughbred racehorse. Conquest Warrior made his stakes debut in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey after back-to-back wins on the main track at Gulfstream Park in January and March. The City of Light colt did not disgrace himself – he earned a new career-top 86 Equibase Speed Figure – but was not quite up to the Grade 1 challenge in running a distant fourth behind Fierceness. The Florida Derby was a now-or-never race in terms of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby for Conquest Warrior. With only 15 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, the promising colt sits on the outside looking in and will need to be pointed to a different race.

3. Timberlake

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This Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt has amassed 81 points for the Kentucky Derby, so even after a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby his spot among the 20 horses in the starting gate for the May 4 classic race was secure. But I did not view that race as anything close to an ideal final prep for the Kentucky Derby for Timberlake after he was beaten by 6 ¾ lengths by Muth and finished 4 ¾ lengths behind runner-up Just Steel, a colt he beat by 10 lengths when he won the Rebel Stakes April 24. It’s so important to be peaking at the right time for a 3-year-old with designs on a victory in a Triple Crown race, and it seems that Timberlake's connections agreed with that evaluation of his Arkansas Derby. Trainer Brad Cox told Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini on the afternoon of April 2 that Timberlake would not run in the Kentucky Derby after his fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby and that his connections would target a race at a shorter distance for his next start.