Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule that offer qualifying points for the first leg in the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Forever Young, a two-length winner of the $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Atlantis The Royal on March 30 at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. The bay colt earned 100 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and punched his ticket to Louisville for the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Racing Résumé: Forever Young has aced every assignment he’s been given to date with five victories in as many starts.  The Real Steel colt swept his three races in his native Japan as a 2-year-old in 2023, winning by margins ranging from 1 ½ lengths to seven lengths. The latter margin came in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki, a Dec. 13 race on Japan’s Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule.

Forever Young very likely could have remained in Japan and coasted to a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Instead, his connections sent him first to the $1.5 million Saudi Derby and then to the UAE Derby. In the former, he showed some signs of immaturity that had cropped up in his previous start in Japan when he failed to switch from his inside lead coming off the turn to his outside (right) lead in the stretch. He won anyway, reeling in U.S.-based Book’em Danno in the closing strides to win by a head.

Forever Young was much more professional late in the UAE Derby, switching leads on cue under jockey Ryusei Sakai and pulling away from Southern Hemisphere 4-year-old Auto Bahn to win by two lengths.

Looking at his career to date, it’s interesting to note that he won his first two starts at about 1 1/8 miles then cut back to about a mile for the next two races before stretching back out to 1 3/16 miles for the UAE Derby. When I first watched the UAE Derby live, I wasn’t blown away by the acceleration Forever Young displayed in the stretch, but he did finish pretty fast and there is no denying he overcame significant adversity after navigating a very wide trip from the outside post.

Along those lines, in rewatching his races Forever Young has faced and overcome adversity on multiple occasions, especially in the Saudi Derby. He got off to a pretty slow start in that race, got squeezed back a bit while being hustled for position, then was hung six or seven paths wide on the turn approaching the stretch. Give him credit – he’s a determined colt who battled to prevail in a race he had every excuse to lose while racing on the wrong lead through the length of the stretch.

Forever Young’s UAE Derby was a far more professional victory. Had it come in a U.S. Kentucky Derby prep race, it would make sense to bet that Forever Young could take another step forward with five weeks rest in his third race of the year. But, of course, the win came in Dubai – roughly 7,400 miles from Louisville – and he’ll now be asked to travel from Japan to Saudi Arabia to Dubai and on to Kentucky for the biggest race of his career.

Japan’s Derma Sotogake shipped from Dubai after winning the 2023 UAE Derby and ran sixth in last year’s Kentucky Derby. He was the 19^th UAE Derby runner to compete in the Kentucky Derby without a top-three finish to date. Master of Hounds’ fifth-place finish in 2011 is the best result to date for a UAE Derby runner, which reinforces the notion that it will take a special racehorse to handle the travel and climate change shipping from the Middle East to Central Kentucky to face the toughest challenge of his career.

Is Forever Young a special 3-year-old of that quality? We’ll find May 4.

Speed Figures: The races in Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai do not get assigned the traditional speed figures we are most familiar with in the United States, for the most part, although Craig Milkowski (@TimeformUSfigs) of TimeformUS gave him a 114 for the UAE Derby win.

For reference, that was the same as both Catching Freedom (Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby) and Endlessly (Jeff Ruby Steaks) got March 23, but significantly slower that Fierceness (126) and Muth (122) earned for winning the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa and $1.5 million Arkansas Derby, respectively, last weekend. Actually, Forever Young’s TimeformUS figure was a 114+, indicating that it could be better than rated. My best guess is Forever Young is in the ballpark of most of his U.S.-based peers and, like the majority of them, probably would need a career-best effort May 4 to have a chance to win the Derby.

Running Style: Based upon what I saw in the in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, I expected Forever Young to press the pace in the Saudi Derby, but a poor start eliminated that possibility. Then, in the UAE Derby, he again stalked the pace while racing wide and in the clear in an attempt to avoid dirt being kicked back into his face. It worked out well, but chances are he’ll have to deal with some of that kickback in a 20-horse field on Kentucky Derby day unless jockey Ryusei Sakai really encourages him to gain early positioning. Based on his last two races, it seems reasonable to expect Forever Young will be positioned in mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby, about four to six lengths off the pace.

Proud connections, Yahagi at left (Eclipse Sportswire)

Connections: Trainer Yoshito Yahagi should be familiar to U.S. racing fans. He trained the first Japan-based runners to win at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships when Loves Only You won the 2021 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and three races later Marche Lorraine prevailed in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

The UAE Derby proved an emotional win for Yahagi, whose father, Kazuto, died only hours before the race. “My teacher, mentor, and father passed away this morning and I want to dedicate this win to him,” Yoshito Yahagi said after the race.

Owner Susumu Fujita recently got involved in ownership at this level and has enjoyed the success with Forever Young, who was purchased for $720,603 in Japan as a yearling at auction according to Equineline.

“This is only my third season as an owner with the Japan Racing Association and I have already found a champion racehorse,” Fujita said. “He continues to attract international attention for the Kentucky Derby, which tells me that he should have a good chance.”

Jockey Ryusei Sakai is a rising star in Japan who ranked in the top eight in the Japan Racing Association Jockey Rankings in 2022 and 2023 and currently ranks fourth in 2024.

Pedigree Notes: Forever Young is from the second crop of Real Steel, winner of the 2016 Dubai Turf Sponsored by DP World and a son of Japanese Triple Crown winner and influential sire Deep Impact.

Forever Young hails from an accomplished family as his dam (mother), and third dam (maternal great-grandmother) bother were graded stakes winners while grandam (maternal grandmother), Darling My Darling, is a multiple stakes-winning half-sister (same dam, different sire) to 2004 Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy. Darling My Darling produced Grade 1 winner Heavenly Love, the dam of this year’s Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone, as well as Forever’s Young’s Grade 2-winning dam, Forever Darling.

Derby Potential: Forever Young is a well-bred budding star who has never been beaten on the racetrack in the hands of a first-class Japanese trainer. He’s overcome adversity in several of his starts and has a win going about 1 3/16 miles – only a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby) in the UAE Derby – with victories in three different countries.

The big concern for me is the travel. Shipping from Japan to Saudi Arabia and then on to Dubai is significant travel for a young racehorse, and then subsequently shipping from Dubai to the United States with a change from hot and dry weather to a potentially wet (and who’s knows what temperature!) April in the Bluegrass is quite a bit to ask.

UAE Derby winners are 0-for-19 in the Kentucky Derby. It’s a damn tough race to win to begin with, then factor in the travel, better competition, acclimating to spring in Kentucky, and 150,000 screaming fans on raceday and the task becomes all the more daunting. On the positive side, the only really fast races from this crop of 3-year-olds targeting the Kentucky Derby have both come via the dazzling but inconsistent Fierceness.

I believe one day soon a Japanese entrant will win the Kentucky Derby. I’m not confident it will be Forever Young this year, but I think he absolutely has a chance to run a big race on May 4 at Churchill and give the UAE Derby its best finish in the run for the roses.