Byron King’s Derby Dozen for Feb. 3

RacingContent provided by BloodHorse
Roman Centurian, Hot Rod Charlie, and Medina Spirit (left to right) battle through the stretch in the Jan. 20 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Medina Spirit won to earn 10 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)

BloodHorse associate editor Byron King presents his latest Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 1.

Last week, Greatest Honour moved up into the top tier of Derby contenders with an emphatic score in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and Medina Spirit held on gamely in the stretch to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. This upcoming Saturday features two more qualifying points preps for Derby 147: the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Check out America's Best Racing's Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.


Keeneland/Coady Photography

1. Essential Quality

The champion 2-year-old male of 2020 is scheduled to return in Oaklawn Park's Feb. 15 Southwest Stakes – a race that could also lure Keepmeinmind and Jackie's Warrior. His connections prefer the 1 1/16-mile distance of that race for a comeback. He turned in a serious drill with a six-furlong breeze Jan. 31 in 1:13 at Fair Grounds.


Keeneland/Coady Photography

2. Fire At Will

Trainer Mike Maker said Jan. 30 that the Feb. 27 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park is one race considered for a return. If so, that would provide a quick barometer regarding this colt's promise on dirt. His biggest wins last year came on turf, capped by the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Presented by Coolmore America, though he also captured the off-the-turf With Anticipation Stakes.


Eclipse Sportswire

3. Life Is Good

His winning Sham Stakes form was flattered when Medina Spirit, whom he had defeated by three-quarters of a length in the race, returned to score by a neck in the Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. This colt recently went more than two weeks without a workout, but came back with a smooth drill at Santa Anita Park Jan. 27, timed in :49 3/5 for a half-mile while traveling easily.


BENOIT photo

4. Medina Spirit

His 1:46.26 winning time in the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis over a tiring, good track was the slowest since Santa Anita returned the Lewis to dirt in 2011. It also caused his Equibase Speed Figure to drop from a 110 when second in the Sham to a 98 in the Lewis. Still, he was brave in his front-running score, particularly in light of a fast pace that fatigued other frontrunners, and he galloped out with energy.


Eclipse Sportswire

5. Greatest Honour

Though he ran competitively in his first couple of sprints, he has improved since routing, beginning with a runner-up finish and now with two straight victories at Gulfstream Park. As good as he was in winning the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes by 5 ¾ lengths Jan. 30, he is bred to relish more distance, being out of a dam that is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil.


Eclipse Sportswire

6. Caddo River

Plans call for him to run in the March 13 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park after his romp in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile. The timing makes sense, as does running at Oaklawn, where owner John Ed Anthony of Shortleaf Stable has been so successful. Anthony (as Loblolly Stable) has won the Rebel a record five times, including three times with the eventual Arkansas Derby winners.


Dustin Orona/Remington Park

7. Senor Buscador

Having run exclusively in two starts at Remington Park, both with Lasix, I’m interested to see what he can do sans Lasix in graded company to begin his 3-year-old season. He is not an alert gate horse, but he packs a closing wallop, suggesting a 1 1/8-mile race such as the Feb. 13 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford at Fair Grounds would be right in his wheelhouse.


Click image to purchase shirt.

8. Concert Tour

As demonstrated by Prime Factor's well-beaten third-place finish in the Holy Bull in his second start, it is challenging to go from a first-out maiden sprint win into a stakes route, as this colt might have to do after his debut victory. Training this one is Bob Baffert, a six-time winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and a Hall of Famer known for pulling off the maiden-to-stakes maneuver.


Click image to purchase shirt.

9. The Great One

He and Robert B. Lewis third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie are trainer Doug O'Neill's top Derby prospects, and though the latter is skilled, I somewhat prefer this one due to his recent development. After a near-miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity as a maiden against winners, he dusted maidens by 14 lengths going a mile Jan. 23 at Santa Anita.


Eclipse Sportswire

10. Jackie's Warrior

The Runhappy Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes winner is fast. The issue is how far he wants to run. The TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – a race in which he was fourth – wasn't a fair test, owing to ridiculously fast splits. Cloud Computing, a son of this colt’s sire Maclean's Music, won the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes in 2017, but most of the Maclean’s Music’s other stakes progeny have been sprinters and milers.


Keeneland/Coady Photography

11. Keepmeinmind

He falls a few spots in the rankings due to the below-expectations form of horses exiting the Nov. 28 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a soft-paced race he won from behind in his final start at 2. Not having speed and being a towering, long-striding type, his fastest races are likely to come when hot fractions unfold in front of him, as they did when he rallied for third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.


Keeneland/Coady Photography

12. Highly Motivated

Last year he played a small role in the single-season progeny earnings record for sire Into Mischief, though Authentic, the Kentucky Derby and Longines Breeders' Cup Classic winner was obviously the leading contributor. This colt finished well to win the 6 ½-furlong Nyquist Stakes at Keeneland in a track-record 1:14.99. His first start at 3 should provide much-needed clues about his classic potential and distance capability.

newsletter sign-up

Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing!

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube