Trainer Brad Cox knows what it takes to win the $300,000, Grade 3 Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He’s won three of the last six editions of the 1 1/16-mile race with Shared Sense (2020), Verifying (2023), and Dragoon Guard (2024).
On Saturday, Cox will seek a fourth win in the Indiana Derby with #8 Leading Change (5-1), a lightly raced son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner. Leading Change has only raced once, but the abundant talent he demonstrated suggests he can claim first prize in the Indiana Derby.
Leading Change debuted June 7 in a maiden special weight race sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Churchill Downs. He showed early speed, racing in third place while never more than 1 1/2 lengths behind solid quarter-mile pace fractions of :22.59 and :45.13. He then took over the lead and powered away through a strong final eighth of a mile in :12.18 to triumph by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:21.06, missing the track record by only 0.62 seconds.
Leading Change’s fast finish bodes well for his chances of successfully stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the Indiana Derby. His willingness to rate off the lead is another positive. With #9 Desert Gate expected to be scratched in favor of the Iowa Derby, Leading Change will break from the far outside post position in the Indiana Derby, setting the stage for a perfect trip stalking the pace under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
We recommend betting Leading Change on top of trifecta tickets, which require selecting the top three finishes in order. For second and third place, use #4 Our Moneyman (4-1), #6 Creole Chrome (6-1), and #7 Out of the Woods (9-2).
Our Moneyman ran well against Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Further Ado in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes, finishing second by two lengths. He’s progressing in the right direction, and we’ll count on him to finish in the top three.
Creole Chrome recently trounced the Louisiana Legends Cheval Stakes by 18 lengths.
Out of the Woods defeated Our Moneyman in a $125,000 allowance-optional claiming race at Churchill during the spring, then finished second in the Delaware Derby.
If you’re budget is big enough, consider also betting superfectas, which require selecting the top four finishers in order. If you play superfectas, be sure to include Grade 1 Arkansas Derby fourth-place finisher #5 Bricklin (8-1) on the bottom of your tickets.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$2.50 trifecta: 8 with 4 with 6,7 (total cost: $5)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $2.50 trifecta 8 with 4 with 6,7
$2.50 trifecta: 8 with 6,7 with 4 (total cost: $5)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $2.50 trifecta 8 with 6,7 with 4
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$5.50 trifecta: 8 with 4 with 6,7 (total cost: $11)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $5.50 trifecta 8 with 4 with 6,7
$5.50 trifecta: 8 with 6,7 with 4 (total cost: $11)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $5.50 trifecta 8 with 6,7 with 4
$1 superfecta: 8 with 4 with 6,7 with 5,6,7 (total cost: $4)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $1 superfecta 8 with 4 with 6,7 with 5,6,7
$1 superfecta: 8 with 6,7 with 4 with 5,6,7 (total cost: $4)
What to say at the betting window: Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $1 superfecta 8 with 6,7 with 4 with 5,6,7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
