The $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks May 1 at Churchill Downs is the most important dirt race of the year restricted to 3-year-old fillies and frequently plays a major role in determining the Eclipse Award in the division.

There are many variables to consider when evaluating a race like the Kentucky Oaks with a strong group of up to 14 elite fillies. Factors like past success, class, pace, speed figures, and value are all part of the handicapping equation when deciding which filly to bet in the race. Additional factors like post position, how the fillies will handle a massive crowd, and weather also come into play. Weather is the focus of this blog as there is rain in the forecast this week in Louisville and it could lead to a wet racing surface on Kentucky Oaks day.

The key part of this blog will be predicting which Kentucky Oaks runners might benefit from some moisture in the track and identifying whose win chances might be compromised, but let’s start with the basics: what is an “off” or wet track?  

In the simplest terms, an “off” is a racing surface rated anything other than fast.

We have previously used the quick explanation below of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Kentucky Derby/Oaks weekend:

●      fast (track): footing that is dry, even, and resilient.

●      good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast.

●      wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface.

●      muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water.

●      sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible.

●      sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed.

The best predictor for which runners will handle an “off” track is past success. A racehorse who has won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly, especially if that success came at the same surface/venue as the race in which they are entered.

The table below lists how this year’s Kentucky Oaks contenders have performed on an “off” track with their career record, top Beyer Speed Figure on a wet track, and best Equibase Speed Figure on a wet track. The best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures from among the Oaks entrants are bolded as are the Oaks contenders with a win on a wet track.

Note: AE - denotes also-eligible, which means the entrant would need at least one defection or more to secure a spot in the starting gate. No. 7 Bottle of Rouge was scratched, which allowed No. 15 Lovely Grey to draw into the field.

Percy’s Bar wins Ashland Stakes (Eclipse Sportswire)

Only four of the Kentucky Oaks entrants have experience racing on a wet track, and two of that group have a win under those conditions. Percy’s Bar won the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes by 2 ¼ lengths on a track rated as good at Keeneland. She owns the best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figure on an “off” surface. Zany finished a well-beaten second as the odds-on favorite in the Ashland Stakes.

Also-eligible entrant Nycon won a maiden special weight race on a muddy track at Churchill Downs by 4 ¾ lengths in November 2025, and probably would move up on a wet surface on Oaks day should she draw into the race.

I’d be hesitant to make any snap judgments from Lovely Grey’s fourth-place finish on a sloppy surface at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which came in her career debut.

Another useful tool for predicting whether or not horses will thrive on an “off” track is the Tomlinson rating, especially since the majority of Kentucky Oaks entrants have no experience on a wet track. Daily Racing Form uses Tomlinson ratings to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on wet tracks. For the Kentucky Oaks field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low:

So many of the elite stallions today, notably Into Mischief, Gun Runner, and Curlin, pass along to their progeny an affinity for wet surfaces, so it’s no surprise that 13 of the 16 fillies left among the Kentucky Oaks entrants exceed the 380+ threshold that indicates strong potential to excel on an “off” track.  The scale goes up to 480 and five of the fillies — Search Party, Meaning, Lovely Grey, Always a Runner, and Brooklyn Blonde — are above 440! Meaning and Brooklyn Blonde could be very effective with a combination of tactical speed and pedigrees that suggest they might relish a wet surface.

The current forecast for Oaks Friday is partly cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation. If it rains, I would elevate Percy’s Bar, Meaning, and Brooklyn Blonde, and I’d give Nycon a long look as a live longshot should she draw in off the also-eligible list.