A high-profile Grade 1 winner is slated to make his 2026 debut in Saturday’s $200,000, Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park. But he isn’t guaranteed to win the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier.

The horse in question is #4 Brant, who sold for $3 million as a 2-year-old in training. He lived up to expectations in his first two starts at Del Mar last summer, dominating his debut in a maiden special weight before leading all the way to win the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

But those two races were sprints. When Brant stretched out over 1 1/16 miles for the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, his most recent race, he weakened after setting the pace to finish third by 1 ½ lengths. It’s possible 1 1/16 miles is farther than Brant wants to run, leaving him vulnerable while trying the distance again in his first start off a four-month break from racing.

We suggest bettors oppose Brant with #6 So Happy, the second-most accomplished horse in the San Felipe field.

So Happy is undefeated in two starts, both in sprints. At Del Mar last fall, he rallied from just behind the leaders to win a maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length. Then in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, he stayed within three lengths of a blazing pace before charging home to defeat Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes runner-up Buetane by two lengths.

In the San Vicente, So Happy ran seven-eighths of a mile in the blazing time of 1:21.12. His pedigree suggests stretching out over 1 1/16 miles is within reach, and his ability to rate off the pace should serve him well in the San Felipe. Brant, #1 Flashy Fritz, and #5 Potente all have speed, so if a contested pace unfolds, So Happy can settle in midfield before launching a winning rally under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

Since Brant is likely to be favored, a win bet on So Happy has the potential to pay nicely. However, we also recommend betting him on top of a trifecta, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order.

For second and third place, use Brant, lightly raced maiden winner Potente, and #3 Secured Freedom, who exits a respectable third-place finish in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$6 to win on #6 So Happy

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $6 to win on 6

$1 trifecta: 6 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 (total cost: $6)

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $1 trifecta 6 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5

Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget

$18 to win on #6 So Happy

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $18 to win on 6

$3 trifecta: 6 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 (total cost: $18)

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $3 trifecta 6 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5

Good luck, and enjoy the race!