Oaklawn Park Confidential: Track Trends, Top Trainers and Jockeys to Help Win at Upcoming Meet

Gambling
Sandman, Arkansas Derby, Mark Casse, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Sandman wins the 2025 Arkansas Derby for trainer Mark Casse at Oaklawn Park. Casse is expected to have a strong group in Hot Springs for the upcoming meet, including Sandman. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Some of the winter season’s best dirt racing is coming to the Midwest with the start of Oaklawn Park’s 2025-26 meet on Friday, Dec. 12. Racing at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark. boasts big fields, good betting races for handicappers, an excellent stakes program, and very strong purses throughout its 64-raceday season that will continue until May 2.

The big differences between this year’s Oaklawn season and last year’s will be a four-day-a-week racing schedule for the February through April portion of the meet, which will be termed the Classic Meet. The opening four weeks of action from Dec. 12-Jan. 4 will be called the Holiday Meet. The track calendar takes a new three-week hiatus between the two meets that will encompass much of the month of January before the season resumes on Jan. 30.

The Oaklawn Park stakes schedule will be largely unchanged from last year despite the lack of racing throughout much of January. The headline event of the season will be the $1.5 million, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28. Other stakes races for Kentucky Derby hopefuls will also have seven-figure purses, including the Grade 3, $1 million Southwest Stakes on Jan. 31 and the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes on March 1.


Get to know Oaklawn Park

For horseplayers, the Oaklawn Park meet is about much more than just stakes races thanks to excellent day-to-day racing and wagering. The dirt racing contested throughout the season at Oaklawn is on par with the best dirt racing being conducted anywhere at this time of year. Therefore, Oaklawn will be a focal point for many handicappers and bettors for the winter racing season until early spring.

Oaklawn is a dirt racing-only meet with no turf course. The Oaklawn dirt track is a one-mile oval, and the vast majority of its races will be run at three distances – six furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/16 miles. There is an alternate finish line at the sixteenth pole which accommodates one-mile races with a fair run-up into the first turn.



Top Oaklawn Jockeys

Luis Saez, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Luis Saez, above at Oaklawn, will ride full-time in Hot Springs (Eclipse Sportswire)

Oaklawn Park will feature a new look jock’s room at the 2025-26 season with both Luis Saez and Joel Rosario committed to ride this year’s meet. Saez ranks as the country’s fourth-leading jockey in terms of purses won in 2025 and Rosario is a Hall of Famer and former Eclipse Award winner who ranks 10th on the list of jockey purse earnings for 2025. Both jockeys will have an inevitable impact at or near the top of the leaderboard at Oaklawn Park this season.

There also will be plenty of familiar faces on hand in the Oaklawn jock’s room this season. Ricardo Santana Jr., who was the eight-time leading rider at Oaklawn with meet titles from 2013-’18, and 2020-’21, will once again be back in Hot Springs for the winter after enjoying a very good latter half of 2025 racing at Saratoga Race Course and Aqueduct. Santana ranked as the seventh-leading rider at Oaklawn last year with 36 wins from 291 mounts for 12%. He had long formed a potent jockey-trainer combination with Steve Asmussen at Oaklawn, but the pair has teamed up on fewer winners at Oaklawn of late with Keith Asmussen now taking a lot of the mounts that used to go to Santana. Keith Asmussen has been sidelined with a pelvic fracture sustained in a spill Nov. 8 at Churchill Downs. Asmussen finished last year’s Oaklawn meet with 31 wins (11%), which was good for eighth in the standings, which was just ahead of Erik Asmussen, who won 27 races last year 10%.

There has been a changing of the guard atop the Oaklawn jockey standings the last couple of years with Santana no longer atop the list. The defending leading rider at Oaklawn from the 2024-’25 meet is Francisco Arrieta who won last year’s riding title with 65 wins from 367 mounts for 18% which was narrowly enough to edge Cristian Torres (62 wins, 15%) for the top spot. Torres had been the two-time Oaklawn leading rider both two and three seasons ago when he scored 82 wins (18%) in 2023-’24 and 100 wins (21%) at the 2022-’23 meet.

Along with Saez, Rosario, Torres, Arrieta, Santana, and the Asmussens, some other jockeys who could compete for top 10 finishes in the standings include longtime Oaklawn stalwart Ramon Vazquez who finished fifth in last year’s standings with 40 wins (11%) after finishing seventh with 39 wins (12%) two years ago. Rafael Bejarano was third last year with 54 wins (19%), and Tyler Bacon was fourth last year with 49 winners 13%. Manny Esquivel won 37 races last year (12%) which was good for sixth in the standings.

The established Oaklawn riders will face additional competition from several other accomplished jockeys who plan on moving their tack to Oaklawn this season including Jaime Torres, Reylu Gutierrez, Evin Roman, and Assael Espinoza to name a few.


Oaklawn Park Top Trainers

Steve Asmussen is now the 14-time leading trainer at Oaklawn Park coming off his meet title in 2024-’25 when he won 46 races. He begins the meet sitting on 993 career wins at Oaklawn and could surpass the 1,000-win milestone during the “Holiday” portion of the meet.

Steve Asmussen, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Steve Asmussen at Oaklawn Park (Eclipse Sportswire)

Asmussen is the favorite to walk away with another Oaklawn title this year, but for handicappers, it should be noted that Asmussen burned a lot of bettors’ money at last year’s meet. He started exactly 500 horses last season, meaning that his 46 winners only resulted in a win percentage of 9% despite the fact that he sent out tons of favorites. Two years ago, Asmussen set the Oaklawn Park all-time single-season mark for purse earnings with $6.68 million by scoring 71 wins from 461 starters for 15%. Which version of the Asmussen barn will we see at Oaklawn Park this season?

Trainer Ron Moquett enjoyed perhaps his best Oaklawn season ever last year when he finished second in the trainer’s standings with 37 winners from 237 starters for 16%. That marked a significant improvement at the meet for the Moquett stable after he finished sixth in the win standings with 22 winners two years ago and fifth in the standings three years ago with 19 wins. Ken McPeek had another big season at Oaklawn last year as the third-leading trainer with 28 wins (18%) after finishing as the second-leading trainer with 30 wins (19%) two years ago.

Brad Cox is a factor at Oaklawn Park, just as he is at most major meets throughout the year. He doesn’t start enough horses at Oaklawn to compete for the meet title, but he’s often the win-percentage king among the top-tier of trainers. Last year, Cox won 19 races from 92 starters for 21%. He went 26-for-102 for 25% two years ago and had similarly high win percentages in the seasons prior dating back to the 2021 meet. Cox annually enjoys fast starts in the early part of the Oaklawn meet and his horses should be very dangerous when you see them turn up in the entries, in particular from Dec. 12-Jan. 4.

Sandman, Mark Casse, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Sandman in March at Oaklawn Park (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trainer Mark Casse is expected to have an increased presence at Oaklawn this year, particularly at the “Classic” meet. Casse has been allotted 25 stalls and plans to attack Oaklawn’s lucrative stakes schedule with his stable’s “big guns” on the dirt, including Sandman, Nitrogen, La Cara, and aspiring soon-to-be 3-year-old star Ewing. Also, you must always keep tabs on Norm Casse at the Oaklawn meet. He won with 10 of 55 starters for 18% last year after going 11-for-52 (21%) two years ago and 13-for-38 (34%) three years ago.

More trainers coming off sensational meets last season at Oaklawn Park that bettors might want to focus on this year include Chris Hartman, who finished fourth last year with 26 wins (18%) after finishing third with 28 wins (19%) in 2023-’24. Trainer Greg Compton made a big move in the standings last year to win 21 wins for 19%. Cipriano Contreras scored 19 wins from 101 starters last year after a high percentage 22-for-84 record in 2023-’24. Another up-and-comer last year was Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez who turned heads with 19 wins from 82 starters for 23%.

On the other side of the coin, some trainers who will need to improve off disappointing Oaklawn records last year include Robert Cline (2-for-89 [2%] and 4-for-120 [3%] two years ago), Scott Becker (2-for-40, 5%), Aaron Shorter (2-for-47, 4%), Danele Durham (1-for-35, 3%), and Michael Rone (1-for-43, 2%).


Handicapping at Oaklawn Park

To get a handicapping leg up at the meet, let’s start by looking at some post-position and running style preferences on the Oaklawn track layout at the various key distances of six furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/16 miles.

Oaklawn handicappers might have noticed the past few years that outside running paths have been effective regardless of a horse’s post position. To the naked eye there has sometimes been a discernable outside flow to many of Oaklawn’s races the past five years or so as outside paths have seemed preferable on many days. It’s not uncommon to see exactas like 11-12 or 8-9 coming in, so pay attention and try to judge if the track is favoring outside paths.


Oaklawn Sprint Winning Profiles

Booth, Count Fleet, Erik Asmussen, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Booth wins 2025 Count Fleet under Erik Asmussen (Eclipse Sportswire)

From a statistical standpoint, Oaklawn’s outside flow is reflected in the numbers. Inside posts, once a cornerstone of Oaklawn handicapping, are no longer any advantage, especially in sprints.

Last year’s 2024-’25 Oaklawn meet hosted a total of 364 sprint races, mostly at six furlongs, and those races had a good average field size of 9.54 horses per race. The best post positions statistically in those races were actually the outside posts 7 and outward. Horses from the outside posts won 40% of the sprints (146 wins in 364 races), while inside posts 1-3 won 30% of the sprints and middle posts 4-6 won 30%.

When it comes to preferred running styles in sprints, early speed is beneficial. Speedsters on or close to the lead who won 40% of the sprints, which was almost the same winning percentage as stalkers, who won 38% of the sprints. The only real disadvantage played against closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace, who won only 22% of the sprints in the last year.


Preferred Route Posts and Running Styles

2025 Oaklawn Handicap, Oaklawn Park, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
The start of the 2025 Oaklawn Handicap (Eclipse Sportswire)

For Oaklawn routes, we will concentrate on the common distances of one mile and 1 1/16 miles. At the distance of 1 1/16 miles in a sample of 153 races run at the 2024-’25 meet, post positions and running styles were mainly fair to inside, middle, and outside posts and for horses with any of the various running styles. Handicappers often hastily discount the chances outside posts in Oaklawn routes, and while win percentages over the last six years overall do drop off the farther out you go in the starting gate, the post position stats from the last year were not dramatic. Horses from posts 1-3 won 60 of the races at 1 1/16 miles, horses from middle posts 4-6 won 51, and horses breaking from posts 7 and outward won 42 times.

Outside post positions at the distance of one mile were a bit more of a disadvantage last season. From a sample of 86 one-mile races run at last year’s meet, horses from posts 1-3 won 40% of the races, horses from middle posts 4-6 won 36% of the races, and outside horses from posts 7 and outward won 24% of the races. One-mile races at Oaklawn utilize an alternate finish line creating a short stretch run to the finish. This results in better results for speedsters than for closers. Horses racing on or close to the lead at a mile won 36 of the 86 races (42%). Stalkers won 32 of the 86 races (37%), and closers won 18 of the 86 races (21%), meaning that closers won only half as many mile races as the front-runners.


There are several months of great racing ahead at Oaklawn Park. Factor Oaklawn’s prevailing biases and top human connections into your handicapping, and you will have a big advantage over your fellow horseplayers all season long. Best of luck and enjoy racing at Oaklawn Park.


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