The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday at Churchill Downs with the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a Grade 2 race offering 10 qualifying points to the winner. The field of seven promising 2-year-old colts will line up as part of the Stars of Tomorrow II card. Historically, this race has been a meaningful steppingstone on the Derby trail, producing three Kentucky Derby winners since 1976, though only Super Saver has completed the rare double in that span.
This year’s field features a compelling mix of homebreds, expensive yearling purchases, and everything in between, creating a competitive betting race loaded with value. Winchell Thoroughbreds’ homebred Spice Runner drew the rail for trainer Steve Asmussen with Joel Rosario riding him for the first time. After winning the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes two starts back on the Churchill main track in September and earning an 80 Equibase Speed Figure, the Gun Runner colt has 11 Kentucky Derby points and a graded stakes win under his belt. Cherokee Nation, a $1.15 million yearling purchase, is looking for his first trip to the winner’s circle. He ships in from the West Coast for trainer Bob Baffert with red-hot Flavien Prat lined up to ride him for the first time. Dr. Kapur drove clear to a 2 ¾-length maiden win last time out in his second career start and will be trying a dirt route for the first time for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Soldier N Diplomat enters off a nine-length romp going one mile on the dirt at Churchill for Asmussen. Very Connected earned his first win in his third career start in September on a sloppy track at Churchill. He has three points on the Derby trail following a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes last time out for trainer Kenny McPeek. Further Ado broke his maiden by a remarkable 20 lengths in his third start in October at Keeneland. One of the most highly anticipated runners in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he makes his stakes debut for trainer Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. retaining the mount. Universe, another McPeek trainee, drew the outside post and enters the race off consecutive top-three finishes in graded stakes.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
While Cherokee Nation is still seeking his first career victory, this Not This Time colt purchased for $1.15 million at the 2024 Keeneland September yearling sale appears to be incredibly talented. Cherokee Nation made his debut in early September in a 5 ½-furlong dirt sprint at Del Mar and finished a distant fourth, beaten by 11 lengths while earning an uninspiring 68 Equibase Speed Figure. In his next start at Santa Anita Park in mid-October, the Baffert trainee improved significantly when trying a two-turn route for the first time. Going a mile on the dirt, Cherokee Nation was quickly hustled to the lead and dueled along the backstretch, setting strong quarter-mile fractions of :22.83 and :46.94. On the final turn, 3-5 favorite Mr. A. P. took command but Cherokee Nation was not going anywhere. The pair battled down the stretch and Cherokee Nation fought back on the inside, narrowly missing by a nose while finishing 12 ¾ lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. This was ultra-impressive to battle back as a 2-year-old after setting the pace, especially considering winner Mr. A. P. subsequently ran second by a length to undefeated Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. Cherokee Nation earned a career-best 106 speed figure for that effort at Santa Anita and ships to Kentucky with a mission to not only break his maiden but also score some points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. A huge plus for this horse is the addition of Prat, who won at a remarkable 50% last week on 28 mounts. Historically, Baffert and Prat are nearly unstoppable together, winning at 40% (19-for-48) and 71% in-the-money in graded stakes races over the last three years. Cherokee Nation has been working well at Santa Anita since the runner-up finish and ranks second by late pace with a 112.0 behind Further Ado’s massive 120.5. While Cherokee Nation would normally be heavily favored in these conditions, the presence of Further Ado adds significant value.
The return of Further Ado after his 20-length runaway victory has rightfully become the focal point of this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The Gun Runner colt was a $550,000 purchase by Spendthrift Farm at the OBS Spring 2-year-olds in training sale. He debuted at Saratoga in July, finishing fifth by 3 ½ lengths behind fellow Kentucky Jockey Club entrant Soldier N Diplomat, then took a slight step backward in his second start, dropping from a 78 Equibase Speed Figure to a 69 when third in another dirt sprint in August at Saratoga. Everything changed last time out at Keeneland. Stretching out to two turns for the first time, Further Ado delivered a jaw-dropping performance while earning a career- and field-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The numbers all point to Further Ado. Cox wins at a sharp 30% clip with last-out maiden winners over the past two years, and Further Ado enters with both the highest late pace rating and the highest last-out speed figure in the field. Over the past year, horses with that combination in graded stakes dirt routes have won at 29% with 61% in-the-money finishes from 190 starts. Further Ado has continued to train forwardly since that breakout effort, including most recently a strong five-furlong breeze in :59.60 at Churchill on Nov. 15. He could very well run away with this race, though it is a tall task for a 2-year-old to replicate such an extraordinary performance.
Soldier N Diplomat enters the Kentucky Jockey Club off a commanding performance in late October, drawing off by nine lengths in an allowance-optional claiming race at Churchill while earning a career-best 91 speed figure going a mile on the dirt. The Asmussen-trained colt will again be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for that win. Soldier N Diplomat made an immediate impression in his career debut at Saratoga, defeating Further Ado in a maiden special weight race with an 85 Equibase Speed Figure before a big jump in class in the Grade 1 Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes, where he finished a distant fourth behind Ted Noffey. His most recent victory marked his first attempt at a dirt route in a one-turn mile, leaving the two-turn question still to be answered. Even so, Soldier N Diplomat has shown tremendous talent in all three of his starts. With a proven affinity for the Churchill surface and a strong record of finding the winner’s circle, Soldier N Diplomat has every chance to deliver another big effort on Saturday.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races): Spice Runner (88), Dr. Kapur (88), Very Connected (88), and Universe (92).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Cherokee Nation
Further Ado
Soldier N Diplomat
