Which of the many talented horses pre-entered in the 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf is the most likely to win? History can help us gauge the answer. Reviewing the decades-long history of the Breeders’ Cup Turf unveils several powerful trends bettors can use to rank the top contenders.

Here are eight historical angles to keep in mind as your handicap the Breeders’ Cup Turf, scheduled for Nov. 1 at Del Mar:

Stretch runners have an advantage

It’s uncommon for horses with early speed to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Indeed, 11 of the last 15 winners (73%) were racing no closer than fifth place after the opening half-mile, including nine winners (53%) who closed from the back half of the field.

The betting favorite performs well

The betting favorite has finished fourth or better in 15 of the last 17 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a notable achievement since the Turf often draws large and competitive fields. Breeders’ Cup Turf favorites have been especially formidable in recent years, winning four out of seven editions since 2018.

Favor horses based overseas

Horses based outside of North America dominate the Breeders’ Cup Turf. International raiders represent 21 of the last 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (78%). This trend has been especially strong during the last decade, with only Bricks and Mortar (2019) nabbing a win for North America.

Irish-bred horses enjoy the most success

Irish-bred two-time Turf winner Rebel’s Romance. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Twenty-six out of 42 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (62%) were bred outside of North America, including nine of the last 10 (90%). The majority of these foreign-bred winners (18) hailed from Ireland, which has produced more Breeders’ Cup Turf winners than any other country.

Bet horses trained by O’Brien and Appleby

Aidan O’Brien has won a record seven editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, all with Irish-breds. He’s scored five wins in the last 14 years with Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Reel (2016), Found (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Eighteen of O’Brien’s 36 total Breeders’ Cup Turf starters (50%) have recorded top-three finishes.

Charlie Appleby has likewise excelled in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. From only six starters in four editions of the Turf, Appleby has posted three wins with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2022 and 2024).

Buick, Dettori, and Moore are the leading jockeys

Three active jockeys have compiled especially strong records in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Jockey William Buick (Eclipse Sportswire)

William Buick has ridden six times in the Turf, winning twice with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2024). His win percentage stands at 33%.

Frankie Dettori as posted five Turf wins from 22 rides, a 23% win rate.

Ryan Moore’s record is the best of all. From 15 mounts in the Turf, he’s compiled five wins, four seconds, three thirds, and two fourths. His win rate is 33%, and 93% of his mounts have finished in the top four.

Grade/Group 1 winners dominate

Since 2000, 22 out of 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (85%) entered as proven Grade 1 or Group 1 winners.

Fillies and mares perform strongly

Fillies and mares are relatively infrequent participants in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, making only 15 starts in the race over the last decade. Yet during that timeframe they’ve recorded three wins courtesy of Found (2015), Enable (2018), and Tarnawa (2020). Even better, fillies and mares ran 1-2 in both 2018 and 2020.

Conclusions

Our historical trends suggest 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk is the most likely winner of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Minnie Hauk wins Yorkshire Oaks (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the Irish-bred filly has excelled in Europe this year, winning the Group 1 Irish and English Oaks and the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in succession before finishing a close second against males in the coveted Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Based off this impressive sequence of races, Minnie Hauk is very likely going to be a heavy favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

The historical knocks against Minnie Hauk are small. She shows more early speed than a typical Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, and since her regular rider Ryan Moore is out with an injury, she’ll probably be ridden by Christophe Soumillon. The latter possibility shouldn’t be concerning, however, since Soumillion won the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf with Shirocco, one of only two horses he’s ridden in the Turf.

Rebel’s Romance also is a good fit for the typical profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, which is fitting since he’s already won the race twice. The globe-trotting Irish-bred is trained by Charlie Appleby and will most likely have William Buick in the saddle.

The downsides to Rebel’s Romance’s historical profile are minor: he has more early speed than many Turf winners, he isn’t a filly or mare, and he won’t be the betting favorite if Minnie Hauk starts. But if Minnie Hauk withdraws, Rebel’s Romance figures to start as the favorite, cementing him as a formidable win threat based on historical angles.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!