Three Double-Digit Longshots to Consider on Fall Stars Saturday
Noel’s Weekend Winners: Top Turf Plays for a Spectacular Saturday at Keeneland
GamblingWelcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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It’s opening weekend at Keeneland’s fall meet, and there’s no place better to be at this time of year if you are a horse racing fan. Keeneland rolls out the majority of its stakes schedule early in the meet and a big part of that happens Saturday with five graded stakes races as a part of an all-star 11-race program. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on Keeneland’s pair of Grade 1 turf miles this Saturday, including the First Lady Stakes for fillies and mares and the Coolmore Turf Mile for the boys. If we can cash some tickets on these two feature races, we’ll be well on our way to a big day in the bluegrass. Best of luck!
Saturday, Oct. 4
Keeneland Race Course, Race 8, $800,000 First Lady Stakes, post time 4:44 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at one mile on the grass drew an overflow 12-horse field of fillies and mares plus four also-eligibles. The AEs include one of the main challengers in the race, #13 Special Wan, and in spite of Special Wan’s credentials, she’ll be marooned far on the outside even if she is fortunate enough to get into the race, so let’s look elsewhere. Contention runs deep, but whenever you’re talking about Grade 1 fillies and mares on the grass, you usually can’t go wrong choosing horses trained by Chad Brown. Brown’s #5 Dynamic Pricing has won three of her four races this year including the one-mile Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing on Belmont Stakes weekend at Saratoga. Her lone loss this year was in the Grade 1 Dunkin’ Diana Stakes at 1 1/8 miles, but she appears better going shorter and she’s won her last two starts at this one-mile distance. Brown also has a second entrant in the field, #9 Segesta, and she’s no slouch, either. Segesta had a tough trip when she lost to Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game but she has rebounded nicely in her last two starts with a win in Monmouth Park’s Grade 3 WinStar Matchmaker Stakes and a solid second to Special Wan last time in the Grade 3 Resolute Racing Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Flavien Prat picks up the mount. For the exactas and trifectas, also consider putting #10 Ozara on all of your tickets. Ozara is a seven-time career winner who has never been better than she was in her two most recent races with back-to-back wins at Saratoga including a strong effort in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes last time. Irad Ortiz gets the mount for turf ace trainer Miguel Clement.
The Play: Bet on #5 Dynamic Pricing (4-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #9 Segesta (5-1) and #10 Ozara (7-2).
Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, $1,250,000 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes, post time 5:48 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile carries a $1.25 million purse and has drawn a full 12-horse field set to contest one of the premier races of the Keeneland fall meet. It should come as no surprise that the race has attracted one of the top European turf milers, #4 Diego Velazquez, and that invader looms as the horse to beat. Diego Velazquez has won four of his last five races dating back to last summer and exits a win in Europe’s top summer race in this division in the Prix Jacques Le Marois where he beat Godolphin’s Notable Speech, who has already come back to win the Grade 1 Rogers Woodbine Mile Stakes last month. A contender in the field that can really bump up the value of your exactas and trifectas is #1 Donegal Momentum, who is 12-1 in the morning-line odds but has won five of his eight turf races dating back to last year including wins in two of his last three including Saratoga’s Grade 3 Poker Stakes and $145,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes last time out. Another horse you need on your tickets is #8 Program Trading, who was beaten by a neck by Donegal Momentum in the Bernard Baruch in what was his first race back from a year-plus layoff. The former three-time Grade 1 winner in Kentucky, New York, and California trained by Chad Brown probably needed that last race, but now he's prepped and ready with a chance to get back to his best form in his second start off the layoff.
The Play: Bet on #4 Diego Velazquez (7-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Donegal Momentum (12-1) and #8 Program Trading (9-2).