The 157th running of the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets takes place at Saratoga Race Course for the second straight year while construction continues at Belmont Park. Like 2024, Saturday’s race will be run at the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve five weeks ago.
Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby by 1 ½ lengths over Journalism, who finished a neck in front of Baeza. With both Sovereignty and Baeza having skipped the Preakness Stakes two weeks later, Journalism put on a show when surging to make up five lengths in the final eighth of a mile and win by a half-length. Heart of Honor, who had missed by a nose when second in the $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored By Jumeirah in April, finished fifth in the Preakness after being ninth and 13 ¼ lengths back of the leader with an eighth of a mile to run. Hill Road won the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago and attempts to win the Belmont Stakes in the same way Arcangelo did in 2023 and Tonalist did in 2014, with both of those races run at the traditional Belmont Stakes distance of 1 ½ miles. Rodriguez, who won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino in April when leading from start to finish, was entered to run in the Kentucky Derby then was withdrawn a couple of days before the race with a minor hoof injury. Crudo won the Spendthrift Farm Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico three races prior to Journalism winning the Preakness the same day and steps into a graded stakes for the first time. Uncaged rounds out the field, having finished sixth in the Peter Pan, which was his first start in a stakes race.
Analysis and main contenders:
Analyzing 3-year-olds at this time of year is about predicting small improvements as much as any other factor. It is with that in mind Baeza appears to be worthy of being the top win contender in this field. Baeza made his career debut at one mile on turf last December, whereas by that time Sovereignty had run three times, including victory in the Street Sense Stakes. Similarly, Journalism had run twice and had won at a mile. Then, 13 days after Baeza debuted, Journalism won the Los Alamitos Futurity. After his career debut last December, Baeza finished second in early January behind Rodriguez, who controlled the pace from start to finish while in front. Baeza then improved markedly in his third career start in February, winning by 4 ¾ lengths and earning a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure, which at the time was higher than the best figure Sovereignty had earned, and just short of the 106 figure Journalism earned winning the Los Alamitos Futurity. Considering he had run nearly as fast as Journalism and was improving, trainer John Shirreffs entered Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which his lack of experience compared with Journalism was just enough to cost him the win as he rallied to lead by a length with an eighth of a mile to run, then was passed by the more experienced racehorse. Nevertheless, Baeza improved to a new career-best 107 figure.
Then came the Kentucky Derby, where the experience differences once again proved significant. Baeza began last of 19 in the Derby, and although he was 15th after a half-mile and a couple of lengths ahead of eventual winner Sovereignty, Baeza had traffic trouble as he was steadied behind horses with about five-sixteenths of a mile to run. Baeza found himself seventh with a quarter mile to go while Journalism was third and Sovereignty was fourth. Although he closed rapidly from that point to the finish line, Baeza could not make up the deficit in the final stages, ending up a neck behind runner-up Journalism and 1 ¾ lengths behind winner Sovereignty.
Now, a little over one month later, the experience difference is negligible, and Baeza only has to pass, at most, seven horses to win, not 19. We already know that given his pedigree Baeza will have no issue with this distance as he is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch as well as 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. With those factors in mind, I believe Baeza can post the slight upset and win this race.
Sovereignty earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure in the Derby at the distance of this year’s Belmont, has been rested for five weeks. Sovereignty winning the Belmont Stakes would be no surprise. Journalism showed what makes Thoroughbred racing so exciting when asserting himself to win the Preakness after getting blocked at the top of the stretch, with a 109 last-race speed figure. We can expect another “A” race by this son of Curlin.
If both Rodriguez and Crudo run as expected, I see no other scenario than the two of them battling for early supremacy and then being susceptible to being passed by Baeza, Journalism, and Sovereignty in the late stages. Rodriguez earned a field-high 111 Equibase Speed Figure in winning the Wood Memorial when leading from start to finish more than two months ago, and as a fresh horse he should once again show his early speed. I can’t see Crudo letting Rodriguez get an easy lead as both his wins have come when in front from the start, the same as Rodriguez. Although I expect Crudo to improve on his speed-figure pattern of 99 and 100 in his last two races, there’s no reason to think he can change his running style and relax second in the early stages when he has not done so in the past.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Heart of Honor (108), Hill Road (99) and Uncaged (84).
Top Win Contenders:
Baeza
Sovereignty
Journalism
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