California Chrome: A Horse Who Brought Dreams to Life
Live Longshots and Value Picks for Kentucky Derby Weekend
GamblingKentucky Derby weekend is upon us! A total of 27 races Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs offer plenty of wagering opportunities, and with them come big fields and chances to cash in on longshots.
In this space, we’ll take a look at two intriguing prices on both Friday and Saturday. These will be no shorter than 10-1 odds on the morning line, and in a few cases, they may go off at much larger odds than that. Let’s take a look!
FRIDAY
Race 7, $500,000 Unbridled Sidney Stakes Presented by TwinSpires, 3:48 p.m. ET
#4 Creed’s Gold (20-1 ML)
The Unbridled Sidney features the return of #6 Shisospicy, last year’s Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner. Obviously, she merits respect, but I think this is an ideal spot to take a stand against her. She hasn’t run in six months, there’s significant speed directly to her outside, and while her barn has enjoyed a solid year to date, the 13% win clip is a significant decline from a season ago.
Second choice #5 Queen Maxima makes a lot of sense, but I’m also using Creed’s Gold. She went to the sidelines after a win in last year’s Grade 3 Hendrie Stakes at Woodbine, but she came back with a solid two-back score at Tampa Bay Downs and a good second in the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select at Keeneland. She didn’t get to save much ground that day, and that winner, In Our Time, is a serious racehorse. Add in a rider switch to Flavien Prat, and I think there’s plenty to like, especially at her expected price. (I’m not sure we’ll get 20-1, but 12-1 and up would still be attractive.)
Race 13, $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks, 8:40 p.m. ET
#9 Always a Runner (10-1 ML)

This is a case where the more I look at a horse, the more I like her. She’s not a “lone A,” as I think #11 Percy’s Bar merits plenty of respect (and will get bet down from her morning line price), but Always a Runner brings a lot to the table.
Speed figures from the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes may not tell the whole story. #13 Pashmina was loose on the lead that day, and Always a Runner was wide while rating behind a moderate pace. Still, she rallied, reeled in the loose-on-the-lead opponent, and got the money in just her second lifetime start. There’s a lot of early speed signed on in this year’s Oaks, and several of the potential front-runners carry legitimate stamina concerns.
All told, the most likely race shape for the Oaks sets up beautifully for this one. She could still be improving, and I think she’ll be rolling late at a price.
SATURDAY
Race 6, $200,000 Knicks Go Overnight Stakes Presented by L&N Federal Credit Union, 1:53 p.m. ET
#9 Scotland (20-1 ML)

This race revolves around one question: How much do you trust #2 Dragoon Guard? On paper, he’s the main early speed, and he’s shown he can capitalize on similar situations. He’s also, however, been a money burner, having been favored in six of his last seven starts and winning just one (an optional-claiming race).
Scotland intrigues me because of one of my favorite angles, which I call the “toss two” play. He went to the sidelines after a clunker here in November, and he returned looking like a horse that absolutely needed a race. Blinkers go on this Bill Mott trainee, who has been working well of late, including a solid drill here on April 26. He cashed some big checks last year, including a second in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes behind Book’em Danno, and that type of effort could get him the winner’s share of this purse at a nice price.
Race 12, $5 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, 6:57 p.m. ET
#14 Potente (20-1 ML)
For full disclosure, I have two “A horses” in here, the other being #9 The Puma. However, early betting shows a lot of people may be on him right along with me, so for the purposes of this article, I’m pivoting to a much bigger price.
Potente put forth a massive local workout last weekend, going five furlongs in :57.80. He won the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse from just off the pace, but found himself on the lead in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. I think that’s curious, because he already had the Derby points necessary to make this field. This feels like Bob Baffert may have been trying to learn something.
Here, he should be able to sit his ideal “stalk and pounce” trip behind a few others, including stablemate #4 Litmus Test. Will he have the gas in the tank necessary to make his move the winning one? We’ll see, but at his expected price, I’m happy to take a swing and find out.