Which horse is most likely to prevail in Saturday’s $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park? History can help guide us toward the answer. Analysis of the last 20 editions of the Arkansas Derby produced five positive handicapping angles that can be used to determine the strongest contenders in this year’s renewal.
Here are the historical trends to keep in mind when betting the 2026 Arkansas Derby:
Tactical speed is beneficial
While horses rallying from far back occasionally win the Arkansas Derby, horses with varying degrees of early (tactical) speed perform best. Ten of the last 20 winners (50%) raced first, second, or third after the opening half-mile, and 16 of the last 20 winners (80%) were positioned no more than 3 1/2 lengths off the lead at that juncture.
|
Year
|
Winner
|
Position after first 1/2 mile
|
½-mile and
¾-mile times
|
|
2025
|
Sandman
|
7th by 13.5 lengths (9 starters)
|
:45.21, 1:10.37 (fast)
|
|
2024
|
Muth
|
2nd by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)
|
:47.46, 1:12.26 (fast)
|
|
2023
|
Angel of Empire
|
7th by 4.5 lengths (10 starters)
|
:47.26, 1:12.24 (fast)
|
|
2022
|
Cyberknife
|
4th by 2 lengths (9 starters)
|
:46.54, 1:11.22 (fast)
|
|
2021
|
Super Stock
|
4th by 2 lengths (6 starters)
|
:46.51, 1:11.25 (fast)
|
|
2020 #1
|
Charlatan
|
1st by 2 lengths (9 starters)
|
:46.08, 1:09.68 (fast)
|
|
2020 #2
|
Nadal
|
2nd by 0.5 lengths (9 starters)
|
:46.21, 1:09.85 (fast)
|
|
2019
|
Omaha Beach
|
1st by 0.5 lengths (11 starters)
|
:47.50, 1:12.46 (sloppy)
|
|
2018
|
Magnum Moon
|
1st by 0.5 lengths (9 starters)
|
:48.60, 1:13.39 (fast)
|
|
2017
|
Classic Empire
|
7th by 2.5 lengths (12 starters)
|
:46.92, 1:11.16 (fast)
|
|
2016
|
Creator
|
12th by 14.25 lengths (12 starters)
|
:46.33, 1:10.61 (fast)
|
|
2015
|
American Pharoah
|
2nd by 3 lengths (8 starters)
|
:45.99, 1:10.54 (fast)
|
|
2014
|
Danza
|
4th by 2 lengths (8 starters)
|
:47.71, 1:12.29 (fast)
|
|
2013
|
Overanalyze
|
7th by 3.5 lengths (10 starters)
|
:47.64, 1:12.57 (fast)
|
|
2012
|
Bodemeister
|
1st by 1.5 lengths (11 starters)
|
:46.55, 1:11.36 (fast)
|
|
2011
|
Archarcharch
|
9th by 6.25 lengths (13 starters)
|
:46.53, 1:11.22 (fast)
|
|
2010
|
Line of David
|
1st by 3.5 lengths (9 starters)
|
:46.26, 1:10.75 (fast)
|
|
2009
|
Papa Clem
|
5th by 3.5 lengths (10 starters)
|
:46.19, 1:11.15 (fast)
|
|
2008
|
Gayego
|
2nd by 0.5 lengths (13 starters)
|
:46.61, 1:11.09 (fast)
|
|
2007
|
Curlin
|
3rd by 3 lengths (9 starters)
|
:47.89, 1:12.64 (fast)
|
Respect favorites and short-priced runners
Horses starting at 6-1 odds or under have won 15 of the last 20 editions (75%) of the Arkansas Derby, which includes nine winners (45%) who started as the favorite.
Rebel an important steppingstone
The most productive prep for the Arkansas Derby is the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. The Rebel has produced nine of the last 20 Arkansas Derby winners (45%), including seven of the last 12 (58%).
Grade 1-winning route racers sire the most winners
Sixteen of the last 20 Arkansas Derby winners (80%) were sired by stallions who won at least one Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
Bob Baffert boasts a lofty win percentage
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has saddled 16 starters across the last 20 editions of the Arkansas Derby. Five of Baffert’s horses visited the winner’s circle, giving him a strong 31% win rate.
Conclusions
History couldn’t be clearer: the most likely winner of the 2026 Arkansas Derby is #9 Litmus Test.
Litmus Test is a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, who won four Grade 1 races at 1 1/16 miles or longer. Litmus Test has plenty of tactical speed and has never raced more than 3 1/2 lengths off the early pace. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, exits a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, and figures to start at under 6-1 odds in the Arkansas Derby.
As a result, Litmus Test is a perfect match for our historical profile of an Arkansas Derby winner.
Enjoy the race!
