Saturday’s $1.5 million, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park has drawn a strong field befitting its status as a top-tier Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers.
Many of the entrants have shown talent in previous Kentucky Derby prep races. #2 Silent Tactic (5-2) won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and exits a nose defeat in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. #3 Blackout Time (6-1) finished a strong second in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last fall. #6 Renegade (3-2) recently scored a decisive triumph in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and #9 Litmus Test (5-1) won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
But can longshot #5 Taptastic (20-1) steal the show in his first start on the Kentucky Derby trail? It’s not out of the question. The beautifully bred son of Tapit looks like an exciting young prospect for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won the Arkansas Derby four times.
Taptastic ran fantastic under challenging circumstances when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight on March 8 at Oaklawn. Racing on a muddy track, he found himself boxed in along the rail with nowhere to run as pacesetter Dawn At Normandy set slow fractions of :23.84, :48.57, and 1:13.57.
In the stretch, Taptastic squeezed through a narrow opening along the rail. At last, he had room to run, and he responded with a burst of acceleration. He blazed his final furlong in :11.77 to edge away and beat Dawn At Normandy by 1 1/2 lengths.
Some bettors will hesitate to support Taptastic because he earned a modest Beyer Speed Figure and a similarly unremarkable Brisnet speed rating. But the slow pace wasn’t conducive to generating strong speed figures. The fact that Taptastic was accelerating at the finish suggests he had more in reserve and could have recorded a faster final time if he’d found racing room sooner.
The Arkansas Derby takes place at 1 1/8 miles. Taptastic has the pedigree to relish the extra eighth of a mile, so with an unencumbered trip, he may step forward in a big way and vie for victory at 20-1 odds.
We suggest betting Taptastic to win and playing him in an exacta with Renegade and Silent Tactic.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$6 to win on #5 Taptastic
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $6 to win on 5
$1 exacta: 5 with 2,6 (total cost: $2)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $1 exacta 5 with 2,6
$2 exacta: 2,6 with 5 (total cost: $4)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $2 exacta 2,6 with 5
Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget
$18 to win on #5 Taptastic
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $18 to win on 5
$3 exacta: 5 with 2,6 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $3 exacta 5 with 2,6
$6 exacta: 2,6 with 5 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $6 exacta 2,6 with 5
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
