The Grade 1, $1 million Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa Saturday at Gulfstream Park offers the winner 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and guarantees a spot in the starting gate in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. There are 50 points awarded to the runner-up and that could be significant as well, allowing a horse with very few, if any, points to date, to enter the Derby if second in this race.
Leading the field for the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby is Sovereignty, who won the Grade 2 Street Sense Stakes in October before returning from four months off to win the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes last month. Neoequos finished 2 ¾ lengths back in third in that race. Tappan Street finished second in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in early February and skipped the Fountain of Youth to be ready for this test. Madaket Road finished second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes five weeks ago at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and his trainer, Bob Baffert, decided to use this race as the next step on the Derby trail rather than run in the Arkansas Derby. The rest are unproven on dirt at this level, such as Enterdadragon, a recent runner up on turf in the Colonel Liam Stakes. Cool Intentions finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes when last seen on Jan. 4. Disruptor earned his first career victory in his second career start four weeks ago, winning decisively by 9 ¼ lengths, but he steps up in class and tries two turns for the first time. On the other hand, he is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has saddled the winner of the Florida Derby seven times in the last 11 years and eight times overall. Jimmy’s Dailys inished second in an allowance-optional claiming race at this distance last month, with Indecisiveness third in the same race. Smoken Boy, who won two races in Puerto Rico last year, enters the race after being claimed for $75,000 last month from a sixth-place effort.
Analysis and main win contenders:
On paper, the fastest two horses in this year’s Florida Derby field are Madaket Road and Sovereignty, who have earned 102 and 98 Equibase Speed Figures, respectively, in their most recent races on the Derby trail. However, Madaket Road gets an outside post and appears to be a “need-the-lead” type in a race with at least two other horses drawn inside of him who are very likely to challenge for the early lead. Sovereignty should improve off his strong effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes following a few months off, but unfortunately it was announced this week that his regular jockey, Junior Alvarado, will miss the race due to an injury, leaving the connections scrambling for a replacement when most of the top jockeys in the U.S. are already committed to other horses in this race or in the Arkansas Derby, which also is being run Saturday at Oaklawn Park. Perhaps more importantly, historically the winner of the Fountain of Youth does not fare nearly as well in the Florida Derby. Among the most recent 10 horses to have run in both races, only one won them both, that being Forte in 2023.
With that in mind, and with a first- or second-place finish necessary to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in five weeks, Tappan Street is the most probable winner in my opinion. A lightly raced son of Into Mischief — also the sire of Sovereignty — Tappan Street won his debut at Gulfstream in a seven-furlong sprint at the end of December, then ran a very good race in the Holy Bull Stakes five weeks later. In the Holy Bull, Tappan Street rallied from sixth to make the lead while wide on the far turn, holding that lead until a sixteenth of a mile to run, ending up clearly second by a 9 ¼-length margin over the third finisher. The winner of that race, Burnham Square, had much more race experience compared with Tappan Street, and it showed, but I expect this horse to improve markedly both physically and mentally off the effort, particularly as he skipped the Fountain of Youth to enter this year’s Florida Derby as a fresh horse. Trainer Brad Cox has several contenders on the Derby trail this year in the form of Final Gambit (winner of last week’s Jeff Ruby Steaks), Flood Zone, John Hancock, Instant Replay, and Patch Adams, and Cox has proved to have a knack for having his charges fit and ready in these types of races. Jockey Luis Saez has ridden Tappan Street in both races and also rides unbeaten Longines Kentucky Oaks contender Good Cheer for Cox. Additionally, Saez rode Angel of Empire to a win the 2023 Risen Star Stakes and Essential Quality to victory in the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes for Cox. Although Tappan Street has earned 93 and 89 speed figures to date, which are far short of the 99 and 102 best figures Sovereignty and Madaket Road have earned, respectively, Tappan Street appears to be ready for the best effort of his career and one good enough to post the upset win in this year’s Florida Derby.
Madaket Road is on a pattern of improvement that can’t be denied, going from a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in his debut last November and steadily increasing how fast he’s run, culminating with a field-high, last-race 102 speed figure when second last month in the Rebel Stakes. The blinkers come off for this race after three races with the equipment, perhaps allowing Madaket Road to relax a bit in the early stages as opposed to when zipping through the opening half-mile in :45.72 in the Rebel Stakes before tiring to finish second. On the other hand, with it appearing Neoequos (on the rail), Disruptor (stretching out from sprints to two turns) and Jimmy’s Dailys might also want the lead, it will be necessary for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to put Madaket Road in a stalking position early while not going too wide on the first turn from post-position No. 8. In his maiden win in a sprint last December, Madaket Road stalked in fourth position early before rallying to win, so it is possible with the equipment change those tactics could be successful in the Florida Derby.
Sovereignty currently has 60 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard so he does not need to win to secure his spot in the Kentucky Derby, particularly compared with Madaket Road (31 points), Tappan Street (10 points) and others. Sovereignty earned a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure when winning the Street Sense Stakes to close out his 2-year-old campaign and then a 98 figure winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, which should be improved upon in his second start at the age of 3. His outside post in the 10-horse field does not significantly compromise his chances given he has been ninth and sixth in the early stages of his two most recent races, both wins, so one question is whether Sovereignty will be asked for everything he has in the late stages of the race if needed, if he is already in a position to add to his points total and ensure he can enter the Kentucky Derby in five weeks, compared with other horses who would be off the Derby trail if they don’t finish in the top three in this race. He certainly has the talent to win the Florida Derby, and it would be no surprise if he did so.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Cool Intentions (88), Disruptor (99), Enterdadragon (92), Indecisiveness (80), Jimmy’s Dailys (93), Neoequos (100), and Smoken Boy (70).
Win Contenders in preference order:
Tappan Street
Madaket Road
Sovereignty
Pick 4
3-1-7-9
3-1-7-9
$283
Pick 5
9-3-1-7-9
9-3-1-7-9
$4,112
Pick 6 Jackpot
2/4-9-3-1-7-9
2/4-9-3-1-7-9
$3,954
Superfecta
9-10-1-8
9-10-1-8
$13
Super High Five
9-10-1-8-4
9-10-1-8-4
$384
Trifecta
9-10-1
9-10-1
$20
Pick 4
3-1-7-9
3-1-7-9
$283
Pick 5
9-3-1-7-9
9-3-1-7-9
$4,112
Pick 6 Jackpot
2/4-9-3-1-7-9
2/4-9-3-1-7-9
$3,954
Superfecta
9-10-1-8
9-10-1-8
$13
Super High Five
9-10-1-8-4
9-10-1-8-4
$384
Trifecta
9-10-1
9-10-1
$20
