
Best Bets for the Sunset Pick 6 Oct. 4 at Gulfstream and Santa Anita
It’s opening weekend at Keeneland, and one of the premier meets in the country boasts a stellar Saturday program. We’ve got 11 races on tap, including five graded stakes that serve as key preps for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
You won’t want to miss any of the action, and we’ve got several horses that you may want to take a closer look at. They figure to be pretty big prices on Saturday in Lexington, but the potential is there for them to outrun their odds. Let’s take a look!
Race #4: #7 Anegada (12-1 morning-line odds), 2:36 p.m. ET
I’ll start this entry by saying that I don’t think we’re getting the morning-line price. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for trainer Mike Maker, and those are very strong connections. Furthermore, Anegada has run against much, much better horses in his last two outings.
Anegada was a very solid fourth two starts ago in the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes, in which he finished just two lengths behind Giocoso after encountering some trouble. His last-out effort in the Exacta Systems Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs wasn’t good, but that’s a quirky turf course and he was up close to a pretty hot early pace. I’m more than willing to draw a line through that clunker and focus on other efforts on his sheet. Do that, and you’ve got a horse that looks primed to capitalize on the drop into a first-level allowance race.
Even if he goes off at half of the 12-1 morning line price, I’ll be betting him. I think he’s well-meant, and that this is the spot where he “finds his friends” and gets his first win since March.
Race #9, $650,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity: #4 Spice Runner (12-1 morning-line odds), 5:16 p.m. ET
#6 Ted Noffey figures to be very tough to beat in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. He couldn’t have looked more impressive in winning the Grade 1 Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes on Labor Day at Saratoga, and his pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be an issue.
With that in mind, though, someone has to run second, and Spice Runner could provide value in the exotics. He’s one of just two horses in here with a win at a non-sprint distance, and that came in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes going a mile at Churchill Downs. He was a bit green that day, but he beat a solid group that included the promising Comport, who ran second and beat the third-place finisher by five lengths.
Beating Ted Noffey might be a bridge too far, and that one will be a popular single in multi-race exotics. However, I think a Dave Weaver-style “ice cold exacta” using Spice Runner in second could be a way to extract value from one of the shortest prices on the card.
Race #11: #5 Steel Golden (12-1 morning-line odds), 6:20 p.m. ET
We’ll finish in the finale, a maiden special weight race for 2-year-olds. Many of these are first-time starters, including Steel Golden, who runs for Horseshoe Indianapolis-based trainer Aaron West.
He sold for $310,000 at auction, and the workout tab may indicate why. He’s got a few very, very strong drills, including a last-out move at Keeneland that may have tipped his hand. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride for this outfit, which isn’t a tandem we’ve seen before.
The pedigree does say he may want to go a bit longer — he’s by Gun Runner out of a Kitten’s Joy mare. However, if you’re looking for a price to include in your late Pick 4 or a potential “get out” horse in the nightcap, give Steel Golden a long look.