
Ag Bullet Climbs into Top 10 on Equibase Leaderboard, Pletcher Joins Elite Five
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
The Colonial Downs meet is almost over but the season has one week remaining and is set to go out with a bang with one of the premier racedays of the year in Virginia this Saturday. Colonial Downs will host a day of six stakes headlined by the featured $500,000, Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on this great day of racing and wagering from Colonial Downs and veer-off from this column’s usual two-race format in order to handicap all six Saturday stakes on the program. Let’s pick some winners and make some money. Good luck!
Colonial Downs, Race 5, $125,000 Kitten’s Joy Stakes, post time 2:03 p.m. ET
A seven-horse field of 2-year-old turf horses is set to kick off Saturday’s stakes action at Colonial Downs and this race presents a chance to catch a good price with #6 Tough Critic listed at 8-1 odds on the morning line. From the high-percentage barn of trainer George Weaver, Tough Critic stretches out after facing a much tougher field in Saratoga’s Skidmore Stakes where he lost his best chance breaking from the gate with a bad start. Weaver thought enough of Tough Critic after his Keeneland maiden win to send him to Royal Ascot, and even though that attempt wasn’t successful he does seem to have found a much better spot in this race.
The Play: Bet on #6 Tough Critic (8-1) to win. You can also use Tough Critic in the all-stakes Old Dominion pick 6 which starts in this race.
Colonial Downs, Race 6, $150,000 Colonial Cup Stakes, post time 2:35 p.m. ET
This year’s Colonial Cup has drawn a field of eight ready to compete at 1 ½ miles on the turf. High percentage winning trainer Jonathan Thomas ships in #7 Twirling Point from the West Coast where he recently got a comeback outing under his belt at Del Mar off a 9 ½-month layoff. With that prep behind him, Twirling Point’s connections will try a stretchout to 1 ½ miles for the first time and the horse should eat up this additional distance. Another horse that should benefit from the stretch to 1 ½ miles is #3 Just a Photo who lost his last race on the all-weather surface at Gulfstream but was very good in his most recent turf efforts two and three races ago. Paco Lopez picks up the mount. Finally, #5 Dear Dad is in fine form on the grass and shouldn’t be overlooked stepping up against stakes company based on strong back-to-back wins including a victory at Colonial last time out.
The Play: Bet on #7 Twirling Point (7-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 Just a Photo (4-1) and #5 Dear Dad (9-2).
Colonial Downs, Race 7, $125,000 Exacta Systems Rosie’s Stakes, post time 3:09 p.m. ET
Rosie’s Stakes is a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint for 2-year-olds that has drawn a field of 10. Turf sprint ace trainer George Weaver sends out yet another horse to beat on Colonial’s Saturday card with #6 Royal Treatment, a filly who began her career in a stakes race and then scored a blowout five-furlong turf sprint maiden win at Monmouth Park last time. She can beat the boys here at 5-1 on the morning line with a similar effort. Elsewhere in the field you will find a pair of Wesley Ward trainees and when you see Ward horses in a short turf sprint stakes like this you have to take notice. #1 Gypsy Art is a first starter with fast workouts and Victor Espinoza aboard, and #8 Rogue Legend is a foreign invader that is a two-time winner in Ireland now facing an entire field of maidens or non-winners of two.
The Play: Bet on #7 Royal Treatment (5-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Gypsy Art (6-1) and #8 Rogue Legend (5-2).
Colonial Downs, Race 8, $150,000 Da Hoss Stakes, post time 3:44 p.m. ET
The Da Hoss Stakes is a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint that drew a veteran nine-horse field that can be narrowed down to three top contenders. A lot of eyes will be on #4 Doncho in this race after he not only set an Ellis Park course record but also a world record at this 5 ½-furlong distance of :59.75 in his most recent race. He may not get the lead in this spot, so he’ll be no slam dunk, but he’s being completely disrespected at 9-2 odds on the morning-line and he’s worth a win bet based on that. For the exactas and trifectas, also use the best stalker in the race, #9 Alogon, who has not been embarrassed in his last two outings against extremely tough turf sprint company at Saratoga, and the best closer in the race, #5 Witty, who surged from last-to-first last time at Colonial Downs to win the $153,000 Van Clief Stakes.
The Play: Bet on #4 Doncho (9-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #5 Witty (2-1) and #9 Alogon (5-2).
Colonial Downs, Race 9, $250,000 Old Dominion Oaks, post time 4:20 p.m. ET
Formerly the Virginia Oaks, the Old Dominion Oaks has drawn a 10-horse field of 3-year-old fillies set to run 1 1/8 miles on the grass. It’s a pretty wide-open race where you should be able to play the favorite and still get some value in the exactas and trifectas. The horse to beat is #7 Evershed who won her seasonal debut two races ago and then ran second to Laurelin last time in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes. She should handle this bunch with anything close to a similar effort. Another tough customer in this field is #10 Will Then who comes in from California after losing by just 1 ¾ lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks Presented by Keeneland Sales. The value in this field is #4 Pretty Lavish, who can bump-up the price of the exotics at 15-1 morning-line odds. She’s back in the mid-Atlantic after a loss at Woodbine last time but had been running well in these parts for trainer Graham Motion with second-place finishes in Pimlico’s Hilltop Stakes and Monmouth Park’s Boiling Springs Stakes.
The Play: Bet on #7 Evershed (2-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #4 Pretty Lavish (15-1) and #10 Will Then (7-2).
Colonial Downs, Race 10, $500,000 Old Dominion Derby, post time 4:55 p.m. ET
The featured race of the day is the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby which drew a field of nine entries with a standout favorite, #6 World Beater, who indeed will be tough to beat. World Beater has really come around nicely during his 3-year-old season and now has three wins in his last four outings including the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes and Churchill Downs’ $273,000 Audubon Stakes, plus a second in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes. Trainer Riley Mott seems to have found an ideal spot at Colonial Downs to continue World Beater’s winning ways. Play him to win, play him as a single in your multi-race wagers, and if you still need more action than that you can key him on top in trifectas above horses like #1 Native Runner, #5 Iron Hand, and #9 Outrunner.
The Play: Bet on #6 World Beater (9-5) to win and play a trifecta key with him on top of #1 Native Runner (8-1), #5 Iron Hand (5-1), and #9 Outrunner (6-1).