Dirt sprints are the bread and butter of U.S. Thoroughbred racing and the $2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint is the crowning jewel of the division with the winner taking home the Eclipse Award as champion sprinter in 10 of the last 11 years and 13 of the last 15 seasons.

This year’s six-furlong race Nov. 1 at Del Mar drew the top-three finishers from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (also at Del Mar) – Straight No Chaser, Bentornato, and Mullikin – among a deep, talented group of 17 sprinters pre-entered.

As always, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint presents bettors with a challenging handicapping puzzle, so let’s explore the last 25 editions of the race from 2000 through 2024 for some key data that might help pick this year’s winner.

Recent Form

2016 Sprint winner Drefong (Eclipse Sportswire)

In looking through the data of the last 25 winners, the most obvious key trend is a strong last race. Sixteen of the last 25 winners exited a victory and 22 of the 25 were first or second in their final Breeders’ Cup prep race. Only 2008 winner Midnight Lute and 2020 winner Whitmore came into the race off of unplaced finishes. The former won the Sprint the previous year and returned from nine months off with a dull effort, but it sharpened him up for a repeat win. Whitmore was fourth in his final prep before his victory in the 2020 Sprint, but he was running in the Sprint for the fourth straight year after finishing second in 2018 and third in 2019.

Repeat Bids

Straight No Chaser will be seeking a repeat win in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Sprint after rallying from third to win by a half-length a year ago. There have been 11 horses who sought a repeat win in the Sprint since 2000. Midnight Lute won in 2008, Roy H repeated in 2018, and Elite Power went back-to-back in 2022-’23. Secret Circle ran second to Work All Week in 2014 after winning in 2013. The other seven were unplaced the year after their Sprint win.

The Spa and Santa Anita

Fourteen of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup winners came out of a prep race at either Santa Anita Park (8) or Saratoga Race Course (6). Add in three at Belmont Park and one at Aqueduct, and 40% of the winners over this time period came out of New York preps.

Sophomore Sprinters

Runhappy won the Sprint as a 3-year-old in 2015. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Since 2000, six 3-year-olds proved up to the task of defeating older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but it hasn’t happened since Runhappy (2015) and Drefong (2016) won back-to-back editions. Before that, the 3-year-old winners all were longshots: Squirtle Squirt ($21.20 for a $2 win bet in 2001), Cajun Beat ($47.60, 2003), Silver Train ($25.80, 2005), and Trinniberg ($29.40, 2012). Four of the six entered the race off of wins while Squirtle Squirt and Trinniberg finished second by a half-length.

Gotta Figure

The average winning Equibase Speed Figure over the last quarter-century for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint has been 117.5 with a median of 118. The winning figure has ranged from 108 to 128 with 23 of the 25 coming in at 111 or higher. When looking for a winner, focus on sprinters who consistently run in that range or, at the very least, own a career best in that range. Likewise, 20 of the last 25 winners entered the race with a win at the Grade 2 level or better.

Tactical Speed

Twelve of the last 25 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint were pacesetters or press the pace types, so having tactical speed has proved a major advantage in the race. The only true deep closer to win the Sprint since 2000 was Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008.

The Battle for Position

Tactical speed is a valuable asset in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but it’s far from a guarantee that it will lead to a trip on or near the front. In fact, only two of the last 25 winners led after the opening quarter-mile and only five were in front with a quarter-mile left in the race. There are often so many fast horses in the race that tactical speed simply keeps the winner within striking range of a fast pace. Fifteen of the 25 winners were in the top three after a half-mile and seven were fifth or worse, but only Midnight Lute in 2007 was more than 4 ½ lengths back at that point in the race with a median of 1 ½ lengths back at the quarter-pole.

Where’s the Value

2014 upset Sprint winner Work All Week. (Eclipse Sportswire)

There have been six favorites who won over the last 25 editions of the Sprint and 11 winners were less than 4-1 odds, but the race has produced its share of upsets with nine winners paying $20 or more for a $2 win bet and five paying $30 or more: Cajun Beat (22.80-1 odds in 2003), Thor’s Echo (15.60-1, 2006), Dancing in Silks (25.30-1, 2009), Work All Week (19.10-1, 2014), and Whitmore (18.40-1, 2020). Of the nine $20 winners, four entered off a win, four were second and beaten by a length or less, and Whitmore finished fourth before making his fourth start in the Sprint.

On the Dirt in California

Twelve of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup were held in Southern California, but for this exercise let’s eliminate the ones on an all-weather surface in 2008 and 2009 and focus on those held on a dirt main track, like this year’s edition.

Favorites have won only two of the 10 editions on dirt in Southern California with four double-digit longshot winners. Seven of the 10 entered the Sprint coming out of a win and none was worse than second in their final prep race. Three of the 10 were 3-year-olds.

Only one of the 10 winners led after the first half-mile, but nine of the 10 were within 3 ½ lengths of the leader and seven of the 10 entered the race having shown the ability to press or set the pace. Five were in front in early stretch and nine of the 10 were in the top three, so tactical speed has been advantageous.

A Specialist Race

I love the cutback in distance approach for betting sprint races as a general handicapping principle, but that has not been an effective strategy in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The median distance raced of Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners – during the year of the win before the World Championships – over the last 25 editions has been 6.5 furlongs and 23 of the winners averaged seven furlongs or less. It’s even more of a sprinter’s race on the dirt in Southern California with an average distance raced by the 10 winners of 6.37 furlongs and a median of 6.4 furlongs leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.

Evaluating the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Cast

2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Straight No Chaser (Eclipse Sportswire)

It makes sense to start with defending winner Straight No Chaser. The Sprint is a race where repeat victories are possible – we’ve had three repeat winners since 2008 – but it is a formidable challenge with eight other horses failing in the quest over the last quarter-century. Straight No Chaser enters off a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes Presented by Estrella Jalisco in his first start after a 5 ½-month layoff, so he might have needed the race. The third-place finish is a mark against, but Straight No Chaser is absolutely a six-furlong specialist, coming out of a Santa Anita prep race with abundant tactical speed, and he proved a year ago he’s fast enough to win.

Likewise, last year’s runner-up Bentornato looks like a top win candidate. He returned from more than 10 months off with a 5 ½-length romp in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes Sept. 13 at Churchill Downs. He earned a career-top 117 Equibase Speed Figure for that win from just off the pace, so he’s in top form, boasts great tactical speed, and proved up to the class challenge when second by a half-length in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He would be the first Sprint winner this century to come out of a prep race at Churchill Downs, but he’s a win candidate.

The top-two finishers from the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, winner Imagination and runner-up Dr. Venkman, will rematch with Straight No Chaser in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Imagination had been running in longer-distance races and cut back to six furlongs to halt a seven-race winless stretch for Hall of Fame trainer and five-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Bob Baffert. Likewise, Dr. Venkman has been better at slightly longer distances. Neither profile as a typical sprint specialist but both are fast enough to factor.

Bing Crosby Stakes winner Lovesick Blues (Eclipse Sportswire)

Lovesick Blues has made five of his six starts this year on turf, but his one dirt race was a 1 ¾-length score in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at six furlongs at Del Mar. He is a tried-and-true sprinter, but not necessarily a dirt sprinter, and he’s more of an off-the-pace runner, which could hinder his chances. That said, if the pace is especially fast in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Lovesick Blues could be the beneficiary on a track he likes.

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint third-place finisher Mullikin is winless in four starts this year and enters off a well-beaten seventh place finish in a Grade 1 race in August at Saratoga. He was much better a year ago. Banishing made his last two starts at 1 1/8 miles, including a win in the Charles Town Classic Stakes, but this is a tough spot to cut back in distance by three furlongs and he exits a third-place finish. Mad House is a dedicated front-runner shipping in from Parx Racing who will face a stiff class test coming out of a facile 2 ¾-length win in his graded stakes debut. A 3-year-old, Mad House has never won from off the pace and he’ll face significant pressure up front Nov. 1 at Del Mar, but he could hold on for a minor awar at a big price. Big City Lights is a very fast sprinter for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, but he makes his first start since Jan. 18 in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and he’s never won above the Grade 3 level. I don’t think Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner Nakatomi or Vosburgh Stakes winner Patriot Spirit are fast enough to win against this group.

Japan-based American Stage and Puro Magic offer some intrigue, but the former has never won a group stakes race and the latter has first preference in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and is winless in one start on the main track.

Females Tamara and Kopion were among the pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but both are listed as having first preference in the PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Should they target the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and face males, they would be attempting to join Very Subtle (1987), Safely Kept (1990), and Desert Stormer (1995) as female winners of this race. The inception of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in 2007 has led to fewer female entrants in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Kopion finished second most recently in a Grade 2 race at 1 1/16 miles while Tamara won a 6 ½-furlong sprint in her return from more than 10 months off. I prefer both in the Filly & Mare Sprint.