Following the retirement of reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna, the 2025 Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar appears wide-open with many viable win contenders.

Analyzing the last 20 years of Breeders’ Cup Distaff history reveals recurring trends and tendencies we can use to sort through the contenders and determine the most likely winner.

Here are five angles to keep in mind while handicapping the Distaff:

Late runners perform well

Many dirt races favor horses with early speed. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is often an exception. Only two winners in the last 20 years (10%) were leading after the opening half-mile, while 13 of the last 20 winners (65%) were racing outside the top three at that juncture, including eight (40%) who were racing no closer than sixth place.

Favorites and short-priced horses perform best

Favorites and short-priced horses have historically done well in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The top betting choice has won 18 out of 41 editions (44%), while horses starting at less than 6-1 have won 30 out of 41 editions (73%).

Bet on proven Grade 1 winners

Fillies and mares who have previously won at the Grade 1 level have been dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, winning 17 of the last 20 editions. Also, two of the horses who defied this trend (Unrivaled Belle and Pleasant Home) had placed second multiple times at the Grade 1 level.

Favor horses who raced at Saratoga

It’s common for fillies and mares who competed at Saratoga to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Indeed, 12 of the last 20 Distaff winners (60%) ran at least once at Saratoga in the year of their Breeders’ Cup triumph.

Specifically, Saratoga’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes has been a pivotal prep for the Distaff, producing five of the last 13 winners (38%). This hot streak has coincided with the Personal Ensign shortening from 1 ¼ miles to 1 1/8 miles (matching the Distaff’s distance) starting in 2012.

For win purposes, older horses have an advantage

Three-year-old fillies hold their own against older horses when it comes to recording top-three finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Over the last 20 years, 3-year-olds have represented 34% of Distaff starters, and they’ve secured 37% of the top three-finishes.

However, three-year-olds have won only 25% of Breeders’ Cup Distaffs during the same timeframe. Older horses have represented 66% of Distaff starters since 2005, yet they’ve recorded 75% of the wins.

Conclusions

Dorth Vader (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

History indicates the most likely winner of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff is Dorth Vader.

There’s a lot to like about the 5-year-old mare. For starters, she ran twice at Saratoga this year. During the spring, she dominated the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes Presented by Ford by 4 ¾ lengths, securing her first top-level win. Then in the summer, she rallied from off the pace to finish second in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes, beaten only a nose by 2024 Horse of the Year and reigning Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Thorpedo Anna.

Dorth Vader’s age, running style, experience at Saratoga, and Grade 1 form are all appealing from a historical standpoint. So long as she starts at less than 6-1 odds (and there’s a good chance she will), Dorth Vader will perfectly match our profile of a typical Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!