Will an off-the-pace runner prevail in Saturday’s $777,000 Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park? It’s a distinct possibility, given the conditions of the race and the expected pace scenario.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks, a prep race for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, is held over 1 1/8 miles on Turfway’s all-weather Tapeta track. The distance is just right for expected favorite #9 Poster (3-1 morning-line odds), who won the 1 1/8-mile Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall. But the surface is a question mark – even though Poster has shown versatility winning on dirt and turf, he’s yet to race over an all-weather track like the one he’ll encounter at Turfway.

Tapeta isn’t a concern for #3 California Burrito (7-2) and #6 Baby Max (5-1), who were separated by half a length when finishing first and second, respectively, in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway last month. But the John Battaglia Memorial unfolded with slow pace fractions of :24.50, :49.41, and 1:14.03 favorable to the front-running California Burrito and the pace-tracking Baby Max.

Maximum Promise (Coady Media)

There’s a lot more speed entered in the Jeff Ruby. #2 Charlie’s to Blame (15-1) led gate-to-wire in his last two starts, including the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf. And #8 Innovator (30-1) has set the pace in four of his last five starts, most notably when third by three-quarters of a length in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on dirt.

A fast tempo may allow #10 Maximum Promise (5-1) to spring an upset under internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori, who is slated to ride the bay colt for the first time.

Maximum Promise made his Tapeta debut in the John Battaglia Memorial. After getting bumped by a rival at the start, he dropped toward the back of the field, about seven lengths behind the slow pace. Despite this unfavorable setup, Maximum Promise rallied steadily around the far turn and down the homestretch to finish third by six lengths.

A clean start and an honest pace can help Maximum Promise turn the tables in his rematch with California Burrito and Baby Max. If you’re betting on a small budget (say, $10), try a simple win bet on Maximum Promise – his odds should guarantee a solid return on investment. But if you want to spend more and chase bigger payoffs, add an exacta using Poster, California Burrito, and Baby Max for second place.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #10 Maximum Promise

What to say at the betting window: Turfway Park, 12th race, $10 to win on 10

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 to win on #10 Maximum Promise

What to say at the betting window: Turfway Park, 12th race, $10 to win on 10

$5 exacta: 10 with 3,6,9 (total cost: $15)

What to say at the betting window: Turfway Park, 12th race, $5 exacta 10 with 3,6,9

Good luck, and enjoy the race!