The midway point in March arrives this weekend, and it serves as a crucial signpost on the Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. After the newly-added Virginia Derby is run March 15, the 200-point qualifying races begin March 22 … so, starting very soon, there’ll be several chances for 3-year-olds not currently ranked high on the Derby leaderboard to join the party and virtually clinch their spot in the May 3 classic with a first- or second-place finish.

With that in mind, one of the most intellectually stimulating and potentially rewarding aspects of following up-and-coming Derby contenders is backing your opinion with a future wager, and there are two ways to do it: Churchill Downs’ fifth pari-mutuel pool held this weekend or a fixed-odds bet via Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Churchill’s fifth of six parimutuel pools starts Friday, March. 14 at noon ET and ends Sunday, March. 16 at 6 p.m. ET. Thirty-nine individual horses are offered plus an “all other 3-year-olds” bet that opens at 12-1 odds. The aforementioned Virginia Derby is the lone Kentucky Derby points race held while this pool is open.

Caesars presents the lone fixed-odds option for Derby bettors, but the catch is wagers can only be placed in Nevada, in person or through their geo-restricted app. If you’re traveling there this winter and spring or know someone who is – say, for example, this weekend at the National Horseplayers Championship – get your bets in!

Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (March 9)

1. Citizen Bull (7.5-1)

2. Journalism (8-1)

3. Sovereignty (10-1)

4. Barnes (12-1)

5. Coal Battle (15-1)

5. Sandman (15-1)

Individual Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Fifth Kentucky Derby Pool (opening March 14)

1. Journalism (3-1)

2. Sovereignty (5-1)

3. Barnes (6-1)

4. Citizen Bull (8-1)

5. Coal Battle (20-1)

5. John Hancock (20-1)

5. Sandman (20-1)

Updates and insights:

Since the last odds update in mid-February, several important preps have been run and two colts in particular have emerged as prime Kentucky Derby prospects after impressively winning their 3-year-old debuts: Journalism in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes and Sovereignty in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. Even so, their respective opening odds of 3-1 and 5-1 in Churchill’s mid-March parimutuel pool are unappealing, since even if they win their final preps (Santa Anita Derby and Curlin Florida Derby, respectively) they’ll probably go off at similar odds (or even slightly higher) in the Kentucky Derby itself. The Vegas odds for each (8-1 and 10-1) are more acceptable, so if you’re sky high on either Journalism or Sovereignty as the 151^st Derby winner, now’s the time to get fully on board.

Poster (Angelo Lieto/NYRA)

Next, let’s consider those seeking to improve off of non-winning effort in a recent Derby prep. Most of these runners are pegged in the 30-1 to 50-1 range in Churchill’s pool and on Caesars’ latest sheet, and a handful of them offer good value. Burnham Square did not make the same sustained move when finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth as he did when winning the Holy Bull Stakes, but he appeared to re-rally in deep stretch and was moving well at the finish. He’s pegged at 40-1 at Caesars and opens at 30-1 in Churchill’s pool and is expected to make his final prep at Keeneland in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Built was no match for a surprisingly dominant Magnitude in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes when finishing third, but neither was any other horse that day last month at Fair Grounds. He’s already won the Gun Runner Stakes and was a close second in the Lecomte Stakes, and the Louisiana Derby hopeful is rated at 50-1 odds by Caesars and gets opening odds of 80-1 via Churchill.

A third horse from this group that stands out is Poster, last seen finishing third behind John Hancock and Owen Almighty in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. That was Poster’s 3-year-old debut after a two-month break, and it appeared in my view at least to be a textbook example of “needing a race” as he got into gear way too late to catch front-running John Hancock with Owen Almighty close in pursuit, but Poster did finish with interest. The Godolphin homebred is targeting the March 22 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, where he’s based for trainer Eoin Harty, and recall that he was undefeated last year at age 2, winning all three of his starts including the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes. John Hancock (50-1, Caesars, 20-1 Churchill) will be one of the favorites in the Louisiana Derby, also on March 22, and Owen Almighty (22-1 Caesars, 30-1 Churchill) just dominated the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Poster is rated at 65-1 by Caesars and opens at an enticing 80-1 this week in Churchill’s pool.

I would be remiss to overlook the leading points earner on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, Luxor Café. The bay colt has won both of his starts in 2025 and three in a row overall since last fall, all at one mile or longer, including the Hyacinth Stakes last out in late February. He’s listed at 50-1 odds on Caesars’ latest sheet and opens at 40-1 in Churchill’s pool, and his pedigree is promising for handling longer distances. He’s a Kentucky-bred son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and a full-brother (same sire and dam [mother]) to Japanese champion Café Pharoah. He’s also a half-brother (same sire, different dam) to U.S. champion turf female Regal Glory and to U.S. turf stakes winner Night Prowler. Doubtful he’s Forever Young version 2.0, but …

Late to the scene and worth watching:

In the last edition of this overview, Caldera stood out as an improving colt that had potential to make noise on the Derby trail and was either absent (in Churchill’s February parimutuel pool) or overlaid (125-1 by Caesars) by betting services. After nearly winning the Sunland Park Derby last month in his stakes debut, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee is targeting either the Louisiana Derby or Arkansas Derby as his final Kentucky Derby prep and is offered at 40-1 odds by Caesars and opening at 50-1 this week in Churchill’s pool.

Praetor (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photos)

This time, a pair from the allowance and maiden ranks that caught my eye are Disruptor and Praetor, both based at Gulfstream Park. Disruptor improved off of a disappointing third-place debut as the heavy favorite in January by posting a dominant 9 ¼-length win in a seven-furlong maiden race March 1. He was backed at 7-10 odds in his victory, and improved his Equibase Speed Figure from 89 to 99. The Gun Runner colt is offered at 60-1 by Caesars and opens at 80-1 odds Friday in Churchill’s fifth parimutuel pool. He’s got a pedigree on his dam’s side that’s more oriented to race at distances around a mile, but given that he’s a $1.15 million purchase owned by some of the industry’s heavy hitters, including Repole Stable, and is trained by Todd Pletcher, he could very well be ambitiously moved up to test Derby prep waters.

Praetor was away from racing from late September 2024 until March 9, when he returned to romp in a one-turn mile allowance race at Gulfstream by 7 ½ lengths for trainer Chad Brown. His return Equibase Speed Figure was a modest 88, yet co-owner Phil Hatfield told Gulfstream’s press office that trying a last-ditch Derby prep was on the table. Praetor is an Into Mischief colt out of a Speightstown mare and is a close relative to several stakes winners at distances ranging from sprints to longer races up to 1 1/8 miles. His 80-1 opening odds in the new Churchill pool are more attractive than the 55-1 he’s rated at by Caesars, and betting this nice-looking colt, who defeated Sovereignty last fall in a maiden race, will require a leap of faith that he’s got a truckload of potential which will be fulfilled very soon.