The 151st running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve May 3 at Churchill Downs offers not only a purse of $5 million, with $3.1 million going to the winning connections, it also sets the stage for one of the entrants to become world famous with a victory in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”
Analysis and horses with the highest probability of winning:
In the Kentucky Derby, the likely betting choice will be Journalism, who appears to be a legitimate favorite based on his record and how fast he’s run. In addition to that, Journalism may be the beneficiary of a contested early pace in this year’s Derby which should be much faster than average. With his mid-pack running style, Journalism can take advantage at the point when the horses which are on the lead and pressing the pacesetters tire. Four of the seven runners that drew to the inside of Journalism (who will break from post position eight) appear to be horses which need the lead to win. In most races around two turns, drawing the inside can present an advantage as running near the rail is the shortest way around. However, in the Derby, having an inside post can be a disadvantage for horses that like to lead early in a race because many horses will move closer to the rail to avoid losing ground by going wide on the first turn and some will expend a good deal of energy to do so. This forces horses which like to run in front early to go faster than they otherwise might in order to gain a forward position before their opponents get to the inside paths.
We saw exactly this type of early pace scenario in last year’s Derby when the first quarter-mile was run in :22.97 seconds and the first half mile in :46.63 seconds. This resulted in the horses which were first, second and third through the first part of the race finishing 11th, 17th, and 15th, respectively. Similarly, in the 2023 Derby, the opening quarter-mile was run in :22.35 and the opening half mile time was :45.73. The result was the top four horses in the early stages ended up 16th, 14th, 13th, and 17th, respectively. (Also, last year another “need the lead” type, Dornoch, broke from the inside post, got bumped out of the gate, and never gained early position, finishing 10th.)
In this year’s Derby field, Citizen Bull draws the number one post and considering all three of his wins around two turns were earned leading from start to finish, he will have to go very fast from the opening bell to get the lead, or he may end up shuffled back like Dornoch and never get into a forward position. Rodriguez draws the four post and both of his wins have been earned leading from start to finish so he’s another with a “need the lead” running style. Similarly, Neoequos earned his only win this year (in a one-turn race) leading from start to finish, and in his recent two-turn races he tired and finished third both times. American Promise may be another horse who can only succeed on the lead because in one of his two wins he led from start to finish, although in his recent win in the Virginia Derby he was in second for the opening half-mile. However, it must be noted the Virginia Derby was a one-turn race – and around two turns, particularly as he’s drawn near the rail, American Promise may need to go fast early to secure first or second in the first hundred yards or so. Then there’s East Avenue, who won the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last fall when after racing in front from start to finish. In the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, East Avenue led from the start and was beaten right at the finish by a nose. Owen Almighty gets the 20 post and is likely to be one of those using his early speed to get close to the rail in the early stages. Owen Almighty won the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby in March when leading from the start and in the Blue Grass Stakes he chased East Avenue in second from the beginning before fading to fifth.
Under this early pace scenario, even if only three or four of the horses which have shown the need to lead early in their previous races go for the front from the start – and don’t get jostled and lose early position – Journalism should find himself in the same spot he was on March 1 in his 2025 debut when he settled in fourth during the early stages of the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes before rallying to win. Similarly, in the Santa Anita Derby last month, Journalism was fifth after a half-mile before moving up to second with an eighth of a mile to run and then taking the lead in the stretch. The 110 and 108 Equibase Speed Figures earned respectively in those two efforts average to the best last two efforts in the Kentucky Derby field. Considering the Derby will be his third start of the year, Journalism still may not have run his best race and even with others potentially also running their best races of the year, he may be the one they all have to beat to win.
One colt that could potentially leapfrog over Journalism and post the upset is Luxor Café. He’s run six times to date, all in Japan, winning four in a row, just as Journalism has. Although he’s only run in Japan to date, Luxor Café has local connections as he is a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and was bred in Kentucky. His dam (mother) has produced two champions – Regal Glory, champion turf female in 2022, and Café Pharoah (also by American Pharoah), Japan’s champion dirt horse in 2022 – so this colt has the pedigree to succeed in the Derby. Additionally, in contrast to most of the horses which have run in the U.S. and faced fields of 10 or less, Luxor Café has won in fields of 16, 14, 10 and 11. Luxor Café earned 108, 105 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures in three of his four wins, which compares favorably to the 106, 108 and 110 figures Journalism earned in three of his last four races. In his most recent win in the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29, Luxor Café rallied from sixth in the early stages and was very responsive when the jockey asked him to extend his stride, which he did without much encouragement. The fact Luxor Café responded so easily is the sign of a smart, athletic horse who wants to win. Jockey João Moreira is one of the top jockeys in the world. He rode Luxor Café for the first time in that recent race and rides back in the Derby. Moreira has won nearly 2,500 races in his career and the horses he’s ridden have earned more than $57 million in prize money. The jockey is no stranger to the big stages and has a pretty good chance to add to his career accolades with Luxor Café in this year’s Derby.
As this is being written, Baeza is still listed as an also-eligible who can only run in the Kentucky Derby if one of the 20 horses in the main body of the race are withdrawn. We saw this happen in 2022 when Rich Strike got into the field the day before the race and won. Baeza has run two big races in a row and appears ready for the Derby. Two races ago he won powerfully and earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, and then in the Santa Anita Derby facing the more experienced Journalism (who had run two more races), Baeza moved up quickly on the far turn to get the lead by a length in the stretch, but was passed by Journalism and finished three-quarters of a length behind. Nevertheless, Baeza improved from a 104 Equibase Figure to a 107 figure and he’s on a pattern to run even better in his fifth career start. The BIG story, for those which may be unaware, is Baeza is out of the mare Puca, who produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Kentucky Derby starter Dornoch, who went on to win the Belmont Stakes last June. If Baeza makes it into the starting gate, it would be a historic event to have sons of Puca compete in the Derby in three consecutive years. Trainer John Shirreffs is no stranger to bringing a longshot to run in the Derby, having saddled Giacomo to a 50.30-1 upset win in the 2005 Derby. It must also be noted that jockey Flavien Prat, who set an all-time record for stakes wins in North America in 2024, is named to ride both Baeza and Neoequos – but Prat has declared his preference is to ride Baeza, so if that horse gets to run, Neoequos will have a different jockey.
Sovereignty is yet another very talented equine athlete. In the third race of his career, he won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last October. Then, following four months off and as if he had no time off at all, Sovereignty won the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1. Following that up four weeks later, the colt rallied for second behind Tappan Street in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa. The truth of the matter is that Sovereignty did not have to win that race to enter the Derby starting gate as he had enough points based on his two prior wins, but Tappan Street did. In both the Street Sense and Fountain of Youth, Sovereignty showed a strong kick when asked by his jockey. This is very important attribute to have in a race like the Derby when many horses start to run low on energy after a mile and an eighth has been run, given none of them have run farther than that distance in their careers. The ability of a horse to accelerate quickly on the far turn and extricate itself from what could be a traffic jam can be very beneficial in a race like the Derby, and Sovereignty has demonstrated that ability. Although his last three Equibase Figures of 99, 98 and 94 are all below the 100 threshold the aforementioned contenders have earned to date, it strikes me that since it appears Sovereignty wasn’t fully extended in the Florida Derby because he didn’t need to be, he might be ready to run a winning race in this situation.
Admire Daytona, like Luxor Café, is another Japanese-based horse in this field. In the 2024 Derby, both Japanese based horses ran exceptionally well, with Forever Young missing victory by inches while T O Password suffered from a significant amount of traffic trouble and ended up fifth after being 18th in the early stages. Forever Young had won the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah prior to the Kentucky Derby, the same race Admire Daytona won this year on April 5. He earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, on par with the top contenders in this field. Although winning that race when leading from start to finish, Admire Daytona was resilient in holding off many challengers to prevail by a neck. Prior to that, he finished fourth behind Luxor Café in the Hyacinth Stakes. Although he led from start to finish in the U.A.E. Derby, Admire Daytona rallied from fourth to win his first start of the year in February, so he has proven not to need the lead to win and could be a factor this year in the same way Forever Young was 12 months ago.
Final Gambit and Grande round out the group of main contenders. They appear to have less probability of winning than the horses mentioned above but start at odds of 30-to-1 and 20-to-1, respectively, and could be the types of horses we would be kicking ourselves after the race if not wagering a few dollars to win. Final Gambit put in a huge late run to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22. He does his best running from last, or nearly so, and if he gets rolling without traffic trouble it would be thrilling to watch. Final Gambit earned a 96 figure winning the Jeff Ruby, which as a prep race produced 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom, 2022 upset winner Rich Strike, and 2023 runner-up Two Phils. The colt is trained by Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun, and his sire, Not This Time, sired 2022 Derby runner-up and eventual champion 3-year-old Epicenter. In the Jeff Ruby, per GPS data that is available to racing fans, Final Gambit ran the fastest last eighth of a mile of any entrant in this field at 37 miles per hour. As for Grande, finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino last month in New York as his final prep for the Derby. The winner of that race was Rodriguez, who as mentioned earlier is one of the “need the lead” types in this year’s Derby field. Given that Grande closed from seventh in the Wood, and with a contested pace to run into, this colt has a decent shot to continue his improving pattern of Equibase Figures, from 88 in his debut in January, then to 89 in February, and then to 106 last time out. As a son of Curlin, who is also the sire of Journalism, Grande should have no problem successfully running this mile -and-a-quarter distance, and he could be a significant factor in the late stages of the race for Todd Pletcher, who last won the Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
In addition to the horses above, I wouldn’t really argue with anyone who thought any of these five horses had a chance to finish in the top three, as their best Equibase Figures are similar in two-turn races – Tiztastic (99), Flying Mohawk (97), Sandman (104), Publisher (100) and Burnham Square (104). Tiztastic won the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on March 22 and it has been my contention that this race, which is six weeks from the Derby, is just a bit too far out for a horse to hold top condition needed to win compared to horses which have run in the last four to five weeks. Flying Mohawk ran second behind Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby and was outfinished by that horse. He ran well but would have to improve more than can be expected compared to others. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby after a sizzling pace was set and although his Equibase Figure was good, he may not be able to run as well in this field. Publisher has never won a race and although he finished second behind Sandman in the Arkansas Derby, the last time a maiden (non-winner) won the Kentucky Derby was in 1933. Burnham Square won the Blue Grass last month and is improving, but he barely got up by a nose over a horse in East Avenue who had set a moderate pace and I don’t think a similar effort would be good enough to win on the first Saturday in May.
The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is American Promise (102), Chunk of Gold (96), Citizen Bull (107), Coal Battle (104), East Avenue (104), Neoequos (94), Owen Almighty (98), Render Judgment (98) and Rodriguez (111).
Top win contenders, in preference order:
Journalism
Luxor Café
Baeza (also-eligible)
Sovereignty
Other possible win contenders:
Admire Daytona
Final Gambit
Grande
You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis (about 10 pages in all), including more detailed comments on Kentucky Derby entrants, as well as betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 3, at Equibase.com.
