The $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Saturday at Fair Grounds drew a fairly strong field of 10 3-year-olds vying for significant purse money and points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.
Five of the 10 entrants have won or finished in the money in their most recent Derby prep, led by Sam F. Davis Stakes winner John Hancock, who passed last week’s Virginia Derby for this spot. Caldera just missed by a nose in the Sunland Park Derby and may not need much improvement to make his mark in this race. Chunk of Gold finished second in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes last month. Built was a head behind Chunk of Gold in that race and just prior to that was second in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. Vassimo finished fourth in the Risen Star after finishing first in the first two races of his career (he was disqualified from his debut win for a medication violation). Tiztastic and Hypnus finished fifth and seventh, respectively, in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last month, with Tiztastic having finished third in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes prior to that. Instant Replay enters the Louisiana Derby off a very sharp five-length win over Fair Grounds’ track, with Furio the runner-up in that race. Yinzer also won at Fair Grounds recently, earning his first win in his fourth career start in a maiden race.
Early pace scenario:
If all 10 run in the Louisiana Derby as expected, there’s likely to be an “irresistible force” versus an “immovable object” situation where the early pace is concerned. This is because John Hancock draws the inside position in the gate and has led virtually from start to finish in both his races, the best of which was a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last month that earned him a 97 Equibase Speed Figure. However, Yinzer appears to be just as determined to lead from the start, having led for the first three-quarters of a mile two races back on Jan. 18 (before tiring) and then leading from the start when winning on Feb. 15, both races held at Fair Grounds. Although he earned only an 89 overall figure, Yinzer’s 103 and 93 early pace figures are higher (faster) than John Hancock’s 98 and 90 figures. This suggests that both horses will vie for the lead from the start at any cost. In addition, Furio has led from the start and through the opening half-mile in all three races, with his only career win coming when leading from start to finish, earning a 91 figure. He gets a jockey change to Luis Saez and drew an outside post, which demands he be sent for the lead from the start. This means that Furio could run even faster in the early stages of the race than he did when leading early and finishing second last month over the track, with 107 and 97 early pace figures to back that up.
Win contenders:
Considering that Instant Replay took advantage of the fast pace set by Furio in that race last month at Fair Grounds – going five paths wide on the turn and drawing off to win by five lengths with gas left in the tank – he appears very likely to get the same setup, or even a better one, to unleash his late kick in the Louisiana Derby. Instant Replay was returning from a two month layoff Feb. 17 and should improve physically in his second start of the year, so his 100 Equibase Speed Figure (which is tied with Caldera for the best last-race figure in the field) should be improved upon. Jockey Florent Geroux has been the only pilot Instant Replay has had in his six starts, two of them wins, and the colt’s middle pace and final figure combination (85 then 100) offer strong evidence of his ability to close strongly as the pacesetters tire. Add it up, and Instant Replay appears to be the one to beat in the Louisiana Derby.
Caldera earned the same 100 figure in his most recent race as Instant Replay did. That effort and figure came when Caldera finished second, beaten by a nose, in the Sunland Park Derby five weeks ago. That was his second race since adding blinkers, and in his first start with them Caldera drew away to win by 5 ½ lengths. In the Sunland Park Derby, Caldera rallied from fifth after a half mile, moving up to second on the turn, and then made the lead by a head with an eighth of a mile to run, but the more experienced Getaway Car fought back to prevail by inches. Although losing, Caldera continued a pattern of improvement started in his first two-turn race in December, jumping from a 74 figure to 93 and then to 100. With continued improvement expected, Caldera should be a strong factor down to the wire in this race.
Chunk of Gold won his debut sprinting in December with an 89 figure, and then when stretched out to a mile and entered in a stakes race on Jan. 16 he ran about the same, earning an 88 figure. After shipping from trainer Ethan West’s base in Kentucky to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes last month, Chunk of Gold ran into a buzzsaw in the form of Magnitude, who won by nearly 10 lengths. Magnitude is off the Derby trail with an injury, and although Chunk of Gold was no match for the winner, he ran an exceptionally good race as he rallied from eighth to best Built for the runner-up spot by a head at the wire. I consider this a “race within the race” because it is as if there was a secondary race going on due to the winner being so far in front. Chunk of Gold, a Preservationist colt, is out of the mare Play for Gold, who produced 2024 Martha Washington Stakes winner Band of Gold, his full sister (same sire [father] and dam [mother]). There is little doubt this colt has some quality, and he may have a say in the outcome of this year’s Louisiana Derby, perhaps at high odds.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Built (103), Hypnus (93), Tiztastic (97) and Vassimo (90).
Top Contenders in preference order:
Instant Replay
Caldera
Chunk of Gold
Pick 3
11-7-3
11-7-3
$826
Pick 4
5-11-6/7-3
5-11-6/7-3
$8,101
Pick 5
3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
$98,225
Pick 6
4-3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
4-3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
$4,156
Superfecta
3-2-9-1
3-2-9-1
$122
Trifecta
3-2-9
3-2-9
$158
Pick 3
11-7-3
11-7-3
$826
Pick 4
5-11-6/7-3
5-11-6/7-3
$8,101
Pick 5
3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
$98,225
Pick 6
4-3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
4-3/5/7/10/13-5-11-6/7-3
$4,156
Superfecta
3-2-9-1
3-2-9-1
$122
Trifecta
3-2-9
3-2-9
$158
