The Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes Saturday at Colonial Downs drew a fairly strong field of eight, led by 2024 Million runner-up Integration, who comes into the race off a narrow loss in the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes.
Another headliner in the $1 million turf race is Mystik Dan, who will be making the first start on grass after 14 starts on dirt. Since winning the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby in 2024, Mystik Dan endured a six-race losing streak before breaking through in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes in May, and he enters the Million off a fourth-place effort in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in June. Cairo is winless in his last 12 races but his third-place effort in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June suggests he fits at this level in North America. Fort Washington won the Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes in May before finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June. Grand Sonata won the Grade 2 FanDuel TV Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes last summer and was most recently second in the Grade 2 United Nations Stakes last month. Time Song earned his best finish in a stakes race when second in the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes in June. Vesting runs in a graded stakes for the first time in his career and finished first and third, respectively, in his two most recent races. Runaway Storm makes his third start following 10 months off and finished second in the John B. Schuster Memorial Stakes in his most recent race.
Top contenders:
Cairo ships “across the pond” from trainer Alice Haynes’ barn at Newmarket, England, and although winless in five races this year and in seven in 2024 the horse has been second in top stakes races at Royal Ascot and Goodwood in England as well as in Dubai. Last December, Cairo finished second to Measured Time in the Al Rashidiya Stakes Sponsored By Emaar, and considering Measured Time won the 2024 Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga, that effort speaks volumes for this horse’s class. Two races back in May, Cairo finished second in the Ire Incentive It Pays To Buy Irish Huxley Stakes, leading with an eighth of a mile to run at the distance of 1 5/16 miles, suggesting he will love the Arlington Million’s mile and a-quarter trip. In his most recent race, Cairo earned a career-best 120 Equibase Speed Figure, which is tied with the figure Integration earned when beaten a neck in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf Stakes in January. Cairo’s 120 figure came in the $1 million Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he checked in just behind Rosallion and Docklands, who were separated at the finish by a nose. Rosallion returned to finish second in the Group 1 Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes last week. The Queen Anne at Royal Ascot was run at one mile on the straightaway, and this race will be run around turns, allowing Cairo will stretch out to a mile and a quarter. Given that beneficial distance change, and considering the top company he’s been competitive against this year and last, Cairo has all the credentials to win this year’s Arlington Million.
Integration is very likely to be the post-time betting favorite based on his consistent form which has seen him finish first or second in four of his last five races, including runner-up finishes in three of his last four Grade 1 stakes tries. After leading by a neck in the stretch in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Qatar Racing in January, Integration fought to the end to miss by a neck, earning a career-best 120 figure. Three races later in the Manhattan Stakes, Integration nearly duplicated that effort with a 119 figure, making up five lengths in the stretch and coming up a head shy of beating Deterministic. The Manhattan has turned out to be a productive race as winner Deterministic returned to win the FanDuel Fourstardave Stakes last weekend and third-place finisher Far Bridge won the Bowling Green Stakes. Considering Integration split those two, we can expect another big effort Saturday which should help him add to his record of five wins and four seconds in 14 career turf races, including a second in last year’s Arlington Million.
Vesting may be an interesting longshot, as he raced for the top Chad Brown barn for his first eight races but only won once. After moving to the barn of Mike Maker in June of this year, Vesting earned a career best 103 figure when winning an allowance race at 1 ½ miles. Then, he improved to a 108 figure when third in another allowance race, this time at 1 3/8 miles. He is on an improving pattern, and can improve in his third start for Maker. The cutback in distance can also help him, making him an attractive win candidate at high odds.
As for some of the others, I’ll start with Mystik Dan. Although he earned a career best 116 Equibase Speed Figure when he finished second by a nose in May, in my opinion he is giving away too much experience to other Arlington Million entrants who have proven themselves over and over to be competitive on grass. Per a Race Lens statistic, trainer Ken McPeek has won with two of 33 starters in turf route stakes the past few years when his horse is moving to the grass for the first time. Grand Sonata, with a career-best 112 Equibase Figure, appears to be better at distances of 1 3/8 miles and 1 ½ miles, and although he can close and get into the top three I don’t think the Arlington Million’s mile and one-quarter distance is one at which he can win. Fort Washington, whose career best figure was 117 when fifth in the Pegasus in January, has been successful in Grade 3 and Grade 2 stakes but I think he’s a cut below some of the others here, and he has never run this mile and one-quarter distance on grass.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Runaway Storm (114) and Time Song (107).
Top Win Contenders:
Cairo
Integration
Vesting
