The spring meet at Churchill Downs is well underway after a successful Kentucky Derby-Oaks week. The first of two stakes races on tap at the historic Louisville track for the Memorial Day holiday weekend is Saturday’s $250,000 Keertana Stakes, which drew a competitive field of eight long-distance fillies and mares scheduled to run 1 ½ miles on the Matt Winn turf course. The weather forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s, and post time is set for 4:55 p.m. ET.

The Keertana, named after a multiple stakes-winning turf mare at Churchill who raced from 2008 to 2012, shapes up as a good betting race as several of the contenders have tussled with one another in various races on the Kentucky circuit earlier this year. Two of horses come into the Keertana off of victories, and #7 Boss Lady Bailey figures to get a good amount of support from bettors. That 5-year-old mare posted a career-best effort in her most recent start when winning a three-horse photo finish by a nose in a 1 ½-mile allowance-optional claiming race April 18 at Keeneland. She’s racing for the productive jockey-trainer combo of Luis Saez and Mike Maker. The other recent winner, #6 Sugaree, also exits a victory in a 1 ½-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, this one coming by a half-length April 23. The Irish-bred mare trained by Arnaud Delacour has some decent form in her native country going back to 2023 and 2024.

But I’m looking elsewhere for my top selection, and landed on #2 Tarneema as a filly that seems to be on the cusp of a breakout performance. Tarneema is a 4-year-old daughter of turf champion Kitten’s Joy owned and bred by Shadwell Stable and trained by Brendan Walsh. She had gradually improved with each start going back to December of last year, finishing sixth, fourth, and then second in a trio of turf races at Gulfstream Park over the winter before a rough-trip third in the Keeneland allowance won by Sugaree. Tarneema was the 1.97-1 favorite in that race but bumped Sugaree to her outside in early stretch and then had to steady very late while racing inside on the rail, backing up near the finish to check in 2 ¼ lengths behind Sugaree. The final time in this Keeneland allowance was more than five seconds slower than the one won by Boss Lady Bailey five days earlier at the same distance, but Tarneema ran well in faster-timed route races on grass earlier this year. She should be able to find a good position close to the lead under underrated jockey Ben Curtis (getting aboard for the first time) and then be right in the mix in the stretch at what will hopefully be a solid price.

Two other horses to consider for exacta and trifecta bets are #1 Dreaming of Mo, whose form looks good at this level once you dismiss her prior start where she was eased in a Grade 3 stakes on dirt at Keeneland; and #4 Strikingly Spun, who rarely wins but in her recent turf races usually runs well enough late to hit the board for another successful jockey-trainer partnership in Jose Ortiz and Joe Sharp.

The Play ($30 budget):

$12 win #2 Tarneema ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $12 win #2

$1 trifecta: #2 Tarneema with #1 Dreaming of Mo, #4 Strikingly Spun, #6 Sugaree, and #7 Boss Lady Bailey with #1 Dreaming of Mo, #4 Strikingly Spun, #6 Sugaree, and #7 Boss Lady Bailey ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1 trifecta, #2 with #1, #4, #6, and #7, with #1, #4, #6, and #7

.50-cent trifecta: #1 Dreaming of Mo, #4 Strikingly Spun, #6 Sugaree, and #7 Boss Lady Bailey with #2 Tarneema, with #1 Dreaming of Mo, #4 Strikingly Spun, #6 Sugaree, and #7 Boss Lady Bailey ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, #1, #4, #6, and #7 with #2 with #1, #4, #6, and #7.