The $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 1 at Del Mar lost significant luster when leading 3-year-old Sovereignty was withdrawn from the race Oct. 29 due to illness. Still, the 1 ¼-mile Classic features one of the strongest fields in recent years, headlined by the top three finishers in last year’s Classic – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young – plus 3-year-old stars Journalism and Baeza and a couple of interesting longshots.

Read on for Breeders’ Cup Classic trifecta betting strategies from the team at America’s Best Racing, and use ABR’s handy Gambling Calculator to structure your bets.

Dan Tordjman:

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In figuring out how I might bet the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I tried to think through multiple scenarios on how the pace might unfold. Sure, we’re all expecting #4 Contrary Thinking to go to the lead, but then the challenge becomes predicting how the field gets spread out behind him. Logically, I’d expect #10 Antiquarian to make an early move to secure a forward position and to try to tuck in behind Contrary Thinking. That second flight should also feature #3 Nevada Beach and #1 Fierceness. Is it possible that the rest of the riders behind Contrary Thinking just let the frontrunner go without putting any pressure on him at all? I think so. And I think that also makes the horse a player to hit the board. 

As for the rest of the field, the three horses who always seem to show up and who have the fewest question marks to me are #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone and #9 Journalism. I’d rank Journalism a touch below because he is a 3-year-old in a field with some really seasoned older horses. He’s also had a long and challenging campaign in 2025. As we know, Sierra Leone won this race last year over the very same dirt track at Del Mar and he’s had another solid year. Forever Young is in the same camp as a proven 4-year-old. He deserved better in last year’s Classic but still finished a strong third. 

That said, I’ll structure my trifecta tickets with Forever Young and Sierra Leone in the top spot, followed by Contrary Thinking and Journalism. To be honest, just about anyone in this field can finish third so I’d play one ticket with “ALL” in the last spot and another ticket more firmly locking in on my top three to four selections. 

Strategy for a $50 budget:

$.50 trifecta: #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone with #4 Contrary Thinking, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone, and #9 Journalism with ALL ($21)

$1 trifecta: #5 Forever Young with #3 Nevada Beach, #4 Contrary Thinking, #7 Sierra Leone, #9 Journalism, and #10 Antiquarian, with #3 Nevada Beach, #4 Contrary Thinking, #7 Sierra Leone, #9 Journalism, and #10 Antiquarian ($20)

$2 trifecta: #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone with #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone with #4 Contrary Thinking and #9 Journalism ($8)

Noel Michaels:

Nevada Beach (Anne M. Eberhardt/BloodHorse)

With Sovereignty out of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic, the race is now looking a lot like a rematch of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic won by #7 Sierra Leone over this same track at Del Mar. So, when handicapping this year’s Classic, you have to start there.

Sierra Leone heated up during the second half of this season with a win in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and then ran a tremendous effort for second in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at the Spa after getting impeded in the early moments of the race when needing to avoid Mindframe’s fallen jockey. Speaking of #8 Mindframe, he was having a great season but has not run a race since June 28 and to me, that’s no way to enter a winning run against an extraordinarily tough Classic field.

In last year’s Classic, #1 Fierceness was second, and #5 Forever Young ran third. Both horses have legit chances to turn the tables on Sierra Leone in the 2025 Classic. Forever Young’s rivalry with Sierra Leone actually goes back to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve when the pair finished noses apart in second and third. The difference maker in the Breeders’ Cup could be Forever Young’s fall prep race last month in Japan, which he won easily after a summer freshening. Sierra Leone and Fierceness, meanwhile, bypassed fall prep races. It looks like this race will be Forever Young’s best chance yet to turn the tables on his nemeses and finally come away with the victory.

A trio of notable 3-year-olds is stepping up to the plate to challenge the older horses in the Classic and all three of #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, and #9 Journalism are realistic contenders at good odds. Baeza, however, beat nobody in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Journalism was soundly trounced by Fierceness when they met in this summer’s Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar. The overlooked 3-year-old is Nevada Beach, a lightly raced but clearly improving Bob Baffert trainee with the potential to be a factor at longshot odds, at least in the exactas and/or trifectas.

Strategy for a $60 budget:

$2 trifecta box: #1 Fierceness, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young, and #7 Sierra Leone ($48)

$2 trifecta: #5 Forever Young with #1 Fierceness, #3 Nevada Beach, and #7 Sierra Leone, with #1 Fierceness, #3 Nevada Beach, and #7 Sierra Leone ($12)

Mike Curry:

My feeling on this race was it was Sovereignty’s to lose before he was scratched with a fever. Three-year-olds have won nine of the last 26 editions of the race and he was just in impeccable form. Time to adjust …

I still think the 3-year-old crop is very good, so #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, and #9 Journalism will be prominent on my tickets. I also have long been a believer in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up #5 Forever Young, who is my pick to win this year’s race.

My initial plan was to fade the older horses in the Classic, and I still will to a degree but not as strongly as I had planned to do with Sovereignty out of the race. My ticket will be structured with Forever Young and Baeza on top. I’ll use #1 Fierceness in second and third given he’s run so well at Del Mar and include last year’s winner #7 Sierra Leone in third. I’ll also hammer a Baeza-Forever Young exacta box.

Strategy for a $24 budget:

$1 Trifecta: #2 Baeza and #5 Forever Young with #1 Fierceness, #2 Baeza, #5 Forever Young, and #9 Journalism with #1 Fierceness, #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone, and #9 Journalism ($24)

Patrick Reed:

Fierceness (Eclipse Sportswire)

Even without Sovereignty, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is a fantastic betting race. Eight of the nine horses entered can win (sorry, #4 Contrary Thinking). To me, the key to the race will be how jockeys John Velazquez and Luis Saez aboard #1 Fierceness and #10 Antiquarian, respectively, react to the presence of the “rabbit” Contrary Thinking, who is entered to set a fast pace with the designs of assisting stablemate Sierra Leone’s closing rally.

If Contrary Thinking wasn’t in the race, I along with many others would peg Fierceness as a threat to win the Classic in gate-to-wire fashion. Velazquez rode both Fierceness and Antiquarian to victory in their final Classic preps, and since he’s sticking with Fierceness Saturday, Luis Saez, who’s also very good riding on the lead, will get a leg up on Antiquarian for the first time. I am of the opinion that if both jockeys get their mounts out of the gate in good shape from the inside (Fierceness) and outside (Antiquarian) post positions, they’ll tuck in right behind Contrary Thinking, bide their time, and then cruise past him and strike the front heading into the far turn.

If that happens, both runners will attempt to open up on the rest of the field — and while there is way too much talent among this year’s Classic contenders for a speed horse to get loose and dominate, either one of Fierceness and Antiquarian could have enough left in the tank to hang around in the homestretch and win.

As such, I’ll key both of them on top of a $1 trifecta with #7 Sierra Leone and improving #2 Baeza joining them in second and every horse in the field save Contrary Thinking in third. I’ll then bet a $2 trifecta with Fierceness and Antiquarian in first and second place and Baeza and Sierra Leone in third. #8 Mindframe, like Fierceness and Antiquarian trained by Todd Pletcher, concerns me especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, but like my colleage Noel Michaels above I’ll wager that since he last ran in a meaningful race way back in June he might not be quite cranked up enough to win or finish second in this very competitive Classic.

Strategy for a $50 budget:

$1 Trifecta: #1 Fierceness and #10 Antiquarian with #1 Fierceness, #2 Baeza, #7 Sierra Leone, and #10 Antiquarian, with #1 Fierceness, #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone, #8 Mindframe, #9 Journalism, and #10 Antiquarian ($42)

$2 Trifecta: $1 Fierceness and #10 Antiquarian with #1 Fierceness and #10 Antiquarian, with #2 Baeza and #7 Sierra Leone ($8)