The Grade 3 $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs offers 10 sophomores a chance for significant points on the Road to the Derby and a share of a hefty purse. Leading the field in terms of recent stakes success is No More Time, winner of the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes four weeks ago on this track. Domestic Product also has excellent stakes credentials, having returned from two months off for a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes five weeks ago.

Among the rest, Heartened is one to respect as he got familiar with the track earlier on the card the same day the Sam F. Davis Stakes was run, drawing off to a four-length victory. Good Money also enters the race off a maiden win on this track at seven furlongs around one turn. Grand Mo the First finished third at the same distance on Feb. 3 in the Swale Stakes and might improve in his second race back from a five-month layoff. Catire Vizcaya was well-beaten when finishing fifth in a sprint last month and may be overmatched. Similarly, both Sturdy and Give Me Liberty are trying for the rare feat of earning their first career wins in a graded stakes race. Both most recently finished third and second, respectively, in the maiden ranks. Everdoit was sixth in his only previous stakes try, in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January, and in his most recent race lost the rider shortly after the start. Crazy Mason rounds out the field and was sixth, beaten 11 lengths by No More Time in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last month.

Top Win Contenders:

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby five times in the past 11 years and six overall, and if I’m correct Heartened is the most likely winner, it will be six of 12 and seven total at about 5:20 p.m. on Saturday, March 9. Heartened started his 2024 campaign on turf in January, rallying from 10^th of 12 to get third at the end. Shipped to Tampa for a race four weeks ago, and moved to dirt, ostensibly for Pletcher to determine how the colt liked this track and its dirt course, Heartened won impressively by four and one-half lengths at the end. The most impressive thing about that effort wasn’t the margin of victory but was the way Heartened ran in the race. Heartened broke in fourth position then moved up to engage with the leader about the time a quarter mile had been run. Still battling head-and-head for the lead for another quarter mile or so, Heartened extended his stride to be in front by two lengths with one-eighth of a mile to run then widened further. Having improved to a career best 94 Equibase Speed Figure, we can compare that effort to the one put forth a couple hours later by No More Time winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes. That effort earned the same 94 speed figure. Jose Ortiz rode Heartened to victory last month and rides back, and the colt gets the ground saving rail so Ortiz can once again ask the colt for a burst of speed as needed. As such, Heartened appears to be a strong contender to win this year’s Tampa Bay Derby.

No More Time Won Tampa's Sam F. Davis (Gonzalo Anteliz Jr.)

No More Time stretched out to a mile (around one turn) last October in his second career start and won by nearly seven lengths, earning a decent 87 Equibase Speed Figure for a 2-year-old. After being given more than two months off to mature physically and mentally, No More Time lost his composure in the post parade for the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day, then hopped in the air at the start, mis-expended energy to move up to third, then tired. Shipped to Tampa for the Sam F. Davis Stakes four weeks ago, No More Time was much more composed and easily made the lead in a field of 10, battling for that lead through the first six furlongs, then drawing off by two lengths and holding the runner-up at bay. Improving to a 94 speed figure in that race, No More Time should take another step forward in his third start off the layoff. Although leading from start to finish in the Sam F. Davis, No More Time rallied from off the pace for his maiden win last fall so no matter the pace scenario this improving 3-year-old has every right to win his second stakes race in a row.

Domestic Product showed a lot of talent in his second lifetime start last October when running a mile and one-eighth and winning by the same four and one-half length margin as Heartened did last month, earning a similar 88 figure to the one Heartened received in his first victory around the same time. Next, Domestic Product ran poorly in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December as he faded to seventh after running in fourth from the start and through the mile mark. Given a couple of months off to grow up physically and mentally, Domestic Product rallied from fifth to run second in the Holy Bull Stakes on February 3 at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby. Although behind winner Hades by two lengths during the entire stretch run, Domestic Product finished in front of last year’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA winner Fierceness and earned a 92 speed figure. Making his second start as a 3-year-old, Domestic Product can be expected to take a step forward off that last effort and rounds out a trio which appears to stand out against the rest in this field.

Honorable mention goes to Sturdy, who has yet to win in two starts. Three-year-olds early in the year sometimes do earn their first wins in stakes races, such as Lemon Muffin two weeks ago in the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Sturdy finished second last fall to Domestic Product in a nine furlong race, then returned for his three year old campaign two weeks ago and finished third with an 81 speed figure. He was beaten just a half-length for the win in that race and should take a nice step forward in his second start as a three year old, giving him a shot at an in-the-money finish at the least.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Catire Vizcaya (76), Crazy Mason (84), Everdoit (82), Give Me Liberty (83), Good Money (82) and Grand Mo the First (91).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Heartened

No More Time

Domestic Product

Longshot Contender: Sturdy