Strategy for Betting the Big 3 Pick 3 on April 6

Gambling
Keeneland, Blue Grass Stakes, Big 3 Pick 3, Santa Anita Park, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial Stakes, Aqueduct
Racing fans at Keeneland cheer home a winner. The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Saturday at Keeneland is part of a new Big 3 Pick 3 bet on April 6. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

On Saturday, April 6, a new bet will be introduced appealing to a large cross-section of horseplayers who are also serious road to the Kentucky Derby followers. The Big 3 Pick 3 covers the final three major prep races for the 150th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve – the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby – and as the name suggests, requires bettors to pick the winner of each race in sequence.

The bet requires a $3 minimum wager and has a mandatory payout on Saturday, and the scheduled post times for the three preps are as follows: Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) at 4:07 p.m. ET, Blue Grass (Keeneland) at 5:52 p.m.ET, and Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park) at 7:45 p.m. ET.

All three races have been drawn, so let’s map out a Big 3 Pick 3 ticket using a $30 budget, keeping in mind that adding horses to the sequence with a $3 base wager can increase the total amount spent quickly.

Race 1: $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino

A robust field of 13 3-year-olds is lined up for the Wood, but I’m going to hone in on only two horses in this first leg, #4 Deterministic and #1 Resilience. The former will vie for post-time favoritism with #9 Tuscan Sky, and I was impressed by how well Deterministic came back off of a nearly seven-month layoff since winning his six-furlong debut at Saratoga in August to score by two lengths in the one-mile Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct March 2. The Gotham was held on a sloppy track and around one turn, and based on the weather forecast Deterministic will get a fast track along with two turns in the 1 1/8-mile Wood come Saturday. I think he can handle both and win this race off a stalking trip. As for Resilience, this Into Mischief colt trained by Bill Mott is sitting on a breakout race in the Wood, I believe, coming off of a Gulfstream Park maiden win at 1 1/16 miles in his 3-year-old bow back in January and then a solid fourth in his stakes debut March 17 when he finished behind three confirmed Kentucky Derby horses (Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, Catching Freedom) in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Mott adds blinkers and John Velazquez, who’s been aboard Resilience on both of his 2024 starts, ditches Keeneland’s huge opening Saturday card for this assignment in New York. Sign me up.

Race 2: $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Blue Grass longshot Seize the Grey (Coady Photography)

I’ll use five horses in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass but also take somewhat of a detour toward what I hope could be a larger payout by leaving second morning-line betting choice #4 Dornoch off of my ticket. Not that I don’t like and respect the horse – I most certainly do. He’s shown a lot of grit in his young career and already has a win on this track. Dornoch could be the controlling early speed in the Blue Grass and posted a solid speed figure in his comeback race at age 3, an easy win in the 1 1/16-mile Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes March 2 at Gulfstream. I just can’t look past the fact that the Fountain of Youth was a cakewalk for Dornoch after four horses scratched and the field was reduced to five, and the fact that each of the four opponents Dornoch defeated came back and did absolutely nothing in their subsequent Derby prep races. I’m using the other two morning-line choices, the favorite #10 Sierra Leone and third choice #6 Just a Touch, along with three contenders at longer odds, #2 Be You, #3 Seize the Grey, and #11 Encino.

In his 3-year-old bow, Sierra Leone overcame a 10-wide position at the top of the stretch in the Risen Star Stakes to close like a freight train in the slop and win going away at 1 1/8 miles. Lightly raced Just a Touch finished second to the above-discussed Deterministic in the Gotham and is bred to run better around two turns. Among the longshots, Be You just may have finally tapped into his talent in his recent maiden win going seven furlongs at Gulfstream (in start number six) and is also bred to relish longer races. Encino will make his dirt debut Saturday after making all three starts on Turfway Park’s all-weather track, but he’s bred to handle it and has won his last two races at 1 1/16 miles. Seize the Grey is the wild card on my ticket and the horse I pulled the trigger on and used instead of Dornoch. He came back in his first start at 3 and won a 1 1/16-mile race on dirt by a rallying length at Oaklawn Park in late February, and then made a threatening move in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway’s all-weather surface but could not sustain it while still running well enough to finish third (and a head short of second). I think this Arrogate colt prefers dirt and while I understand that the legendary D. Wayne Lukas is wheeling him back two weeks after the Jeff Ruby primarily to make a last-ditch grab at Derby points for the ownership syndicate MyRacehorse, I appreciate such boldness. 

Race 3: $750,000 Santa Anita Derby

Imagination under Frankie Dettori (BENOIT photo)

I’ll use a single horse in the final leg of the Big 3 series, the 1 1/8-mile marquee race of Santa Anita’s winter-spring meet. #4 Imagination looks to be a standout in this eight-horse field that lost some shine when his trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Santa Anita Derby a record nine times, removed his top 3-year-old Nysos from training to recover from a minor injury and sent his other sophomore standout, Muth, to win the Arkansas Derby. Imagination enters Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby off of a game head victory over another Baffert 3-year-old, Wine Me Up, in the 1 1/16-mile DK Horse San Felipe Stakes March 2 on this track. He’s shown up in all five of his career starts going back to last November at Del Mar, never finishing out of the exacta, and his pedigree inspires confidence that he can get even better as he tries a mile and an eighth for the first time. Saturday’s field is largely comprised of horses that prefer to be forwardly placed, including Imagination, but this colt does not need to secure the early lead to win and I’ll trust the internal time clock of international star jockey Frankie Dettori as he stays aboard after winning the San Felipe.

What to say at the betting window or type in the ADW field:

$3 Big 3 Pick 3 Wager, 1 and 4 first leg, 2,3,6,10,11 second leg, and 4 third leg ($30)

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