The second leg of the Triple Crown, the $2 million, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, is coming up this Saturday. The 149^th renewal of the 1 3/16-mile race is expected to draw a strong field, and identifying the most likely winner won’t be easy.

Or will it? By reviewing the recent history of the Preakness, we can compile a profile representing a typical Preakness winner, and compare this profile against the 2024 Preakness contenders. The horses who best match the profile can be seen as formidable win contenders since they’re following a proven path to Preakness glory.

With this strategy in mind, here are half a dozen trends and tendencies to help you handicap the 2024 Preakness:

Speed horses have an advantage

Did you know five of the last 15 Preakness winners were leading after half a mile? That’s a 33% success rate for pacesetters.

In general, speed horses perform well in the Preakness. Nine of the last 15 winners were racing in first, second, or third place after half a mile. And 13 of the last 15 winners were racing in the front half of the field at that juncture. The only genuine deep closer to win the Preakness in the last 15 years was Exaggerator, who rallied from eighth position in an 11-horse field in 2016, and he benefited from closing into a strong pace over a slow, sloppy track that he loved.

Be wary betting Kentucky Derby starters

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For decades, racing fans could be almost certain they would see a starter from the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve prevail in the Preakness, reaffirming the link between the first two legs of the Triple Crown. But the strength of that connection has wavered in recent years.

Indeed, five of the last seven Preakness winners (including the last four in a row) skipped the Kentucky Derby. Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022) prepped in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. Swiss Skydiver (2020) exited the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks. Rombauer (2021) prepped in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and National Treasure (2023) came out of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

It’s safe to say a new trend is forming where fresh up-and-comers have an advantage over battled-tested Kentucky Derby alumni in the Preakness.

Kentucky Derby winners aren’t unbeatable

As a side effect of the above trend, it’s risky to bet Kentucky Derby winners in the Preakness. Thanks to their success at Churchill Downs, Derby winners tend to start at short prices in the Preakness, but their win rate isn’t high enough to warrant the low payoffs.

Over the past 19 years, 16 Kentucky Derby winners have started in the Preakness, but only five have visited the winner’s circle. Betting $2 to win on each Derby winner would have cost $32 for a return of $20.40.

Bet horses trained by Bob Baffert

Bob Baffert has won the Preakness eight times since 1997, more than any other trainer in history. His first seven Preakness winners exited the Kentucky Derby, including five horses who won both races and two – American Pharoah and Justify – that swept the Triple Crown. But in 2023, Baffert won the Preakness with National Treasure, who finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and then missed the Kentucky Derby due to the track’s ban on Baffert-trained horses from running.

Longshots have been outperforming favorites

Whereas the history of the Kentucky Derby is filled with major upsets, the Preakness has historically produced less shocking outcomes. Only four winners have started at odds higher than 15-1, and the longest-priced winner was Master Derby (23-1) in 1975.

But guess what? Since Bernardini sprung a 12.90-1 surprise in 2006, we’ve seen a steady string of double-digit longshots prevail at Pimlico. Shackleford (12.60-1), Oxbow (15.40-1), Cloud Computing (13.40-1), Swiss Skydiver (11.70-1), and Rombauer (11.80-1) have all followed Bernardini’s example, so over the past 18 years double-digit longshots have won more editions of the Preakness (six) than favorites (five).

Graded stakes winners have an edge

It’s uncommon for horses to secure their first graded stakes win in the Preakness. The second leg of the Triple Crown is a tough contest, and proven graded stakes winners have won 23 of the last 27 editions. Just as remarkably, 17 of the last 27 Preakness winners had won a Grade 1 race prior to their success at Pimlico.

The four horses in the last 27 years who secured their first graded win in the Preakness were Shackleford (2011), Cloud Computing (2017), Rombauer (2021), and National Treasure (2023). Notably, all had placed second at the graded stakes level prior to the Preakness, and three of them had finished second in Grade 1 races.

Conclusions

Imagination (BENOIT photo)

Three Kentucky Derby alumni are slated to contest the 2024 Preakness, led by Mystik Dan, who utilized a ground-saving trip to win the Derby in a thrilling three-horse photo finish. He’ll be a popular choice at Pimlico, but his stretch-running style isn’t necessarily suited to success in the Preakness, and the emerging trend of newcomers beating Derby starters in the second leg of the Triple Crown is cause for pause.

Instead, history points toward Muth as a dangerous Preakness win threat. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Good Magic wasn’t eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby since Baffert is suspended from racing at Churchill Downs Inc. tracks. Instead, Muth took aim at the Preakness after winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby over a field that included none other than Mystik Dan.

Muth finished 6 ¼ lengths clear of Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby, a flashy performance that followed a season-opening victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. While not a need-the-lead type, Muth has lots of early speed and figures to race close to the pace at Pimlico, so he’s a great fit for the historical profile of a typical Preakness winner. UPDATE: The Preakness Stakes press office announced on the morning of May 15 that Muth was scratched from the Preakness field by trainer Bob Baffert after spiking a fever.

The same can be said of Baffert’s second Preakness contender, Imagination. He’s been part of the pace in all six of his starts, including when battling to victory in the Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes and when finishing second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Imagination is every bit the match for our historical Preakness profile as Muth, and with Muth taken out of the race, Imagination qualifies as the most likely Preakness winner.