Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

This weekend is one of the most important moments on the road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, highlighted by the runnings of the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. These races offer the maximum amount of Kentucky Derby qualifying points, ensuring that the winners and some other top finishers of both races will advance to compete for the run for the roses in their next start on May 4. For this weekend’s winners, let’s take a closer look at these two key Kentucky Derby prep races, which are both the signature races of their respective race meets at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park. Best of luck and enjoy this weekend’s headline events in horse racing.

Gulfstream Park, Race 14, $1,000,000 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, post time 6:42 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 Florida Derby goes as the nightcap of Gulfstream’s stakes-loaded 14-race Saturday card and has drawn a field of 11 horses set to race 1 1/8 miles. As you would expect of a high-profile race of this caliber, the Florida Derby has attracted some big-name contenders on the road to the Kentucky Derby, led by FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner, #10 Fierceness, who is trained by Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is the all-time winningest trainer in the history of this race with seven victories including last year with Forte. Pletcher teams up on Fierceness with John Velazquez, who is the leading jockey in the history of the Florida Derby with five wins. When he’s at his best, Fierceness seems to be the most talented of this year’s 3-year-olds, but he also is capable of throwing in some clunkers as well, including last time when a disappointing third in Gulfstream’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. He draws post 10 and those outside posts have historically been a big disadvantage at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Fierceness is a serious win contender, but others may offer better value for your win bets. The pick is #2 Hades, who skipped last month’s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in order to point specifically for this race. Hades is undefeated 3-for-3 including his win over Fierceness and Domestic Product in the Holy Bull. Domestic Product returned in his next start to win the Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Hades has good tactical speed and has shown he doesn’t need a clear lead in order to win. He gets Paco Lopez back aboard and benefits from a cozy inside post draw. Finally, for those looking for a better-priced alternative to the favorites or a value horse to throw into the trifectas, #4 Grand Mo the First is the choice based on his near-miss third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby where he seemed to improve when stretched out and was finishing well at 1 1/16 miles, indicating 1 1/8 miles in the Florida Derby could be right up his alley at a price.

The Play: Bet to win on #2 Hades (7-2). Play a two-horse exacta box with Hades and #10 Fierceness (8-5). Play a three-horse trifecta box using Hades, Fierceness, and #4 Grand Mo the First (15-1).

Oaklawn Park, Race 12, $1,500,000 Arkansas Derby, post time 7:47 p.m. ET

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The rich Grade 1 Arkansas Derby has drawn a 10-horse field of 3-year-olds set to go 1 1/8 miles. According to the morning-line odds, the field seems to be divided into two tiers, with a trio of heavy favorites facing seven other horses projected to go off at odds between 15-1 and 50-1. If you are going to make any money betting the race under these circumstances, you are going to have to take a stand somewhere, either for and/or against one or two of the top contenders. The horse to beat in the Arkansas Derby is #7 Muth, who I feel comfortable taking a stand with even at odds of 8-5. Muth ran like a monster in his Grade 1 win last fall in Santa Anita Park’s American Pharoah Stakes and was subsequently second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He returned to win his 3-year-old debut earlier this year in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes and should be ready for this assignment for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race four times (including both split divisions in 2020). The horse in this field I will take a stand against is #2 Timberlake, who may be overrated off his win last time over a poor field in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes when drifting all over the track in the stretch. Timberlake was beaten by Muth when the two met in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and a similar finish could be imminent Saturday. As for the third of the three Arkansas Derby morning-line favorites, the jury is still out on #9 Mystik Dan, who looked sensational beating some of these same rivals in an eight-length win earlier this meet at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. Did he simply just adore the sloppy track that day, or did he really improve that dramatically in that race? It’s difficult to discount any handicapper taking either side of the argument.

The Play:  Bet #7 Muth (8-5) to win and box him in the exactas with #9 Mystik Dan (5-2).