The 156th running of the Grade 1, $2 Million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday finds a temporary new home at historic Saratoga Race Course while being run at the same mile and one-quarter distance of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, which was won May 4 by Mystik Dan by a nose over Sierra Leone. Two weeks later, Seize the Grey posted the upset in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes when leading from start to finish, with Mystik Dan second. Meanwhile in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes May 11, Antiquarian prevailed by three-quarters of a length over The Wine Steward, with Protective another 1 ¼ lengths behind in third. Sierra Leone skipped the Preakness, as did Derby sixth-place finisher Resilience, eighth-place finisher Honor Marie, and 10th-place finisher Dornoch. Mindframe rounds out this year’s Belmont Stakes field, with a perfect 2-for-2 record and running in a stakes race for the first time.
Analysis and main contenders:
Dornoch and Sierra Leone showed their promise last fall when finishing first and second, respectively, in the Remsen Stakes at the distance of 1 1/8 miles, with the more experienced Dornoch re-rallying after being passed in the stretch. After he was given some of the winter off to mature physically and mentally, Dornoch made a splashy 3-year-old debut winning the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes and earning a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure while controlling the pace from start to finish. In the Blue Grass Stakes, either new tactics were chosen to allow Dornoch to relax behind the early leaders or the early pace was too fast for Dornoch and jockey Luis Saez, who had been aggressive early in each of the colt’s five of his previous route races, so Dornoch raced in fourth for most of the early part of the race and had no late kick. Then came the Kentucky Derby, in which the rail post and a lot of traffic forced Dornoch to be taken back to 13th in the 20-horse field shortly after the start, from where he had no opportunity to show his early speed.
Within the makeup of this year’s Belmont Stakes, Saez can go back to being aggressive in the early stages, sending Dornoch to the lead as he did in the Remsen and in the Fountain of Youth. The only other horse in the field who may have any serious interest in the early lead is Seize the Grey, who led from start to finish for the first time in his career when winning the Preakness Stakes last month (with a 101 Equibase Speed Figure). It appears very likely that if Seize the Grey is challenged for the early lead, jockey Jaime Torres (on Seize the Grey) will let Dornoch go past. From there it’s possible Dornoch could get into a steady stride similar to the one which resulted in three straight wins between October and March, possibly leading to the upset win if he can hold off Sierra Leone in the late stages.
Sierra Leone can be his worst enemy, as evidenced by how he ran in the Kentucky Derby when trying to lug in for much of the stretch run. He had shifted ground in the stretch previously when winning the Risen Star Stakes in February and when winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, but in both those cases there was no horse near him when he did. It can be argued that if Sierra Leone had not spent some of the stretch run fighting his jockey and not wanting to run entirely straight, he might have won. Nevertheless, Sierra Leone earned a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure with that effort and proved this 1 ¼-mile trip is one he can handle. With a jockey change to Flavien Prat, Sierra Leone may be the one to beat on paper, but the question remains can he catch a potential lone front-runner like Dornoch in the final stages.
Seize the Grey has shown superb versatility in his last two races. He won the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP on May 4 when rallying from fourth with a quarter-mile to go before winning the Preakness Stakes two weeks later when leading from start to finish. That effort earned Seize the Grey a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure and he’s on a pattern to improve as he earned a 91 figure in April before a 93 figure in the Pat Day Mile. If the pace scenario is such that Dornoch does make the lead going into the first turn, Seize the Grey can easily take up second position and, if the early leader falters, can have the lead turning for home. Given that he has proved tough in the final eighth of a mile in his last two races, Seize the Grey might also be capable of holding off the charging Sierra Leone for the win.
Mystik Dan repeated his rail-running win in the Southwest Stakes in February when getting the same trip in the Kentucky Derby and was exceptionally game in holding off Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the final strides. He nearly equaled the 110 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Southwest with a 109 figure in the Derby, then was no match for Seize the Grey down the lane in the Preakness, remaining two lengths back during the final eighth of a mile and earning a 98 figure. Mystik Dan fights hard nearly every time he runs and should be a factor in the late stages of the Belmont Stakes.
Resilience deserves honorable mention. In the Derby he displayed a visually impressive mid-race rally moving up from eighth to second and within a half-length of the lead while six paths wide on the far turn. That rally came too early in the race, resulting in Resilience fading to sixth in the final stages. Nevertheless, it was the second race in a row since adding blinkers where the colt responded exceptionally well to his jockey’s instructions to move powerfully when asked. Jockey Junior Alvarado rode Resilience for the first time in the Derby and is more familiar with him now. Prior to the Derby, Resilience won the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino with a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure and, if he improves off his effort in the Wood Memorial, he could have a say in the outcome in this year’s Belmont Stakes.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Antiquarian (101), Honor Marie (98), Protective (98), Mindframe (99), and The Wine Steward (107).
Top Win Contenders:
Dornoch
Sierra Leone
Seize the Grey
Mystik Dan
For use on exacta and trifecta tickets in second and third position:
Resilience
Pick 4
8-2-9-6
8-2-9-6
$514
Pick 5
1-8-2-9-6
1-8-2-9-6
$3,973
Pick 6
1-1-8-2-9-6
1-1-8-2-9-6
$35,034
Pick 6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
$259
Pick 6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
$50,278
Pick 6
1-1-8-2-9-6
1-1-8-2-9-6
$227
Daily Double
2-6 (MET MILE/BELMONT)
2-6 (MET MILE/BELMONT)
$240
Daily Double
5-6 (INTERCONTINENTAL/BELMONT)
5-6 (INTERCONTINENTAL/BELMONT)
$1,258
Daily Double
6-6 (JUST A GAME/BELMONT)
6-6 (JUST A GAME/BELMONT)
$886
Daily Double
3-6 (NEW YORK/BELMONT)
3-6 (NEW YORK/BELMONT)
$943
Daily Double
9-6 (ACORN/BELMONT)
9-6 (ACORN/BELMONT)
$258
Superfecta
6-10-9-8
6-10-9-8
$320
Trifecta
6-10-9
6-10-9
$237
Pick 4
8-2-9-6
8-2-9-6
$514
Pick 5
1-8-2-9-6
1-8-2-9-6
$3,973
Pick 6
1-1-8-2-9-6
1-1-8-2-9-6
$35,034
Pick 6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
$259
Pick 6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
(TWO DAY)1/9-7-7-1-2-6
$50,278
Pick 6
1-1-8-2-9-6
1-1-8-2-9-6
$227
Daily Double
2-6 (MET MILE/BELMONT)
2-6 (MET MILE/BELMONT)
$240
Daily Double
5-6 (INTERCONTINENTAL/BELMONT)
5-6 (INTERCONTINENTAL/BELMONT)
$1,258
Daily Double
6-6 (JUST A GAME/BELMONT)
6-6 (JUST A GAME/BELMONT)
$886
Daily Double
3-6 (NEW YORK/BELMONT)
3-6 (NEW YORK/BELMONT)
$943
Daily Double
9-6 (ACORN/BELMONT)
9-6 (ACORN/BELMONT)
$258
Superfecta
6-10-9-8
6-10-9-8
$320
Trifecta
6-10-9
6-10-9
$237
